Winter's Last Gasp? Vermont Weekend Storm Will Be A Snowy, Icy, Rainy, Troublesome Mess

As of this morning, I'm still super reluctant to post any
snow or ice accumulation maps for the winter storm
that seems likely this coming weekend. Forecast
or amounts is too uncertain. So, I'll post another
photo of a past icy storm, this one in January, 2017. 

 I'll cut to the chase.  We're in for a big wintry mess of a storm this weekend, with potential heavy snow, possibly enough freezing rain to damage trees and power lines in some spots, followed by the risk of flooding.  

And this one will last a long time. The trouble will arrive late Friday night and probably won't leave us alone until Monday might. 

We still don't know who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain. We probably won't, really, until the storm is underway.  A subtle shift in the way weather fronts set up would make a huge difference as to what happens. 

Much more detail to come below, but first, we've already had a bit of a return to winter as an appetizer, and we should update that.

WEDNESDAY/LAST NIGHT

Snow showers were pretty widespread across Vermont all day Wednesday and to extent last night.  A few of these turned into snow squalls, which would lay down a quick half inch to inch of snow. Roads would get briefly dicey under these squalls.

It was warm enough in the valleys during the day that immediately after a snow shower passed, the snow would melt. I awoke Wednesday to a half inch of snow on the ground in St. Albans, which quickly melted. Twice during the day we received a dusting to a  quarter inch of snow that would disappear in an instant once the sun reappeared. This morning, there's another half inch on the ground. 

Mountains were colder and the snow is piling up, giving ski areas a late season break after the mid-month mega thaw. Near the top of Mount Mansfield, snow depth fell from 103 inches at the beginning of the month to 76 inches by March 20. As of yesterday, it was back up to 90 inches, and I'm sure more fell on top of that.

Jay Peak picked up close to six inches of new snow in the 24 hours ending Wednesday afternoon.

NEW STORM DETAILS:

After some morning snow showers diminish today, we actually get some sun with highs in the upper 30s in colder spots to mid 40s in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley. Another disturbance will bring us some light snow showers tonight, followed by a partly sunny, chilly Friday.

Then the real fun begins.

Starting late Friday night and well into Sunday, that nearly stalled front I mentioned in yesterday morning's post will set up over or near Vermont.

The temperature contrast on either side of the front looks even bigger than we thought 24 hours ago. As of this morning, the forecast highs on Saturday are: 73 in Hartford, Connecticut, 54 in Bennington, Vermont, 40 in Rutland, Vermont, 35 in Burlington and 31 in Newport, Vermont.

Meanwhile, moisture-rich air will be riding along this front.

As you can tell by the temperature forecast - it it's accurate - the real trouble should hit central and northern Vermont. 

The wet air will glide up from the south  and go up and over the cold air to the north.  That means snow and mixed precipitation should break out late Friday night and continue Saturday, except maybe in southern Vermont, where it should just rain.

That front might slip south Saturday night, putting more of central and southern Vermont at risk for some ice, but perhaps ending the precipitation far north for a time. 

Then Sunday, the front should begin to lift north again, putting northern and perhaps central Vermont into more snow and ice.  

ACCUMULATION

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington and other local meteorologists are understandably reluctant to issue any accumulation forecasts just yet.  If the nearly stalled front ends up as little as 20 miles north or south of projections, then what comes from the sky at any given time can change drastically 

Northern Vermont could see at least a half foot of snow, or a lot of ice, or a crummy combination of the two or mostly rain. 

Early guesses I've seen bring half a foot of snow to places near the Canadian border. I'm also seeing hints that a few spots could see more than a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which threatens trees and power lines. 

I'm also pretty sure now that road conditions for much of the weekend in central and northern Vermont will be dicey at best. 

On top of all that, early, uncertain indications are that front will finally surge north into Quebec Monday.  If that happens, temperatures across most of Vermont could get above 50 degrees as the rain continues. 

Again, if that scenario plays out, the rain, warmth and melting snow and ice could trigger flood problems. 

We do know there's the potential for a lot of precipitation. If current projections hold, rain, and melted snow and ice would amount to two or three inches of precipitation between Friday night and Tuesday morning, which is a lot for a late March storm. 

I've probably raised more questions that answers for you with this post.  But pay attention to updated forecasts now through the weekend if you live in Vermont, the rest of northern New England, northern New York or southern Quebec.

This one could be a real troublemaker.