So Far, As Of Early This Morning, Only One Vermont Trouble Spot Due To Thaw, But More Could Pop Up

The "Woof River," which is what I call the tiny stream
that runs by my St. Albans, Vermont house flowing
for the first time in awhile with our thaw. Forecasters
are watching for ice jams on larger rivers today.
Hard to see here, but there's evidence an ice jam
backed up water behind a culvert under my
driveway overnight, but the ice jam has since 
broken free and there's no damage or trouble. 

 As expected, Vermont had a rainy, warm overnight, and there's noticeably less snow on the ground compared to yesterday.  

Still a lot of snow in many areas, but it's diminished. 

As the runoff from the snowmelt and rain continues, rivers are starting to rise, ice is beginning to crack and move, so we have the risk of ice jams and the flooding those can cause.

As of 7 a.m. I've seen just one trouble spot so far.  The river gauge along the Mad River near Moretown started acting weird. Around midnight, the river there started to rise rapidly, and the pace accelerated.

Then, in the 15 minutes ending at 4 p.m. the river rose by 2.68 feet into flood stage.  That kind of change is a tell-tale sign of an ice jam.  So a flood warning was up for that section of the Mad River early this morning. 

Water levels near this river gauge then stabilized. After 7 a.m., water levels at the Moretown gauge began to abruptly fall, hinting that the ice jam broke or moved further downstream.  The jam could still get more intense and raise water further downstream, flooding new areas.

That's not just true along the Mad River. It could happen anywhere an ice jam decides to form. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has noted some ice movement along the Lamoille River, and the East Branch of the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom.  Same thing is happening on some other smaller Vermont creeks and streams. 

So far,  these haven't resulted in ice jams, but they might.

Rainfall with this storm was in line with expectations - most place saw anywhere from a third to two thirds of an inch of rain. Temperatures rose well into the 40s to a few low 50s last night, too. So yeah, the snow is really melting. 

NEXT UP

The end of the thaw is coming later this afternoon. We are going to see some more rain, but not much. Showers were pretty liberally scattered around the state as of 7 a.m. 

The relative warmth - temperatures in the mid 40s for the most part, should hang on through early to mid-afternoon. Then the cold front arrives, and it's back to winter for awhile.

The snow melt run off will slowly wane, so the threat of new ice jams will begin to fade late this afternoon into tonight. 

The cold front might renew the rain showers briefly, but they'll quickly switch over to snow showers. Most of us will just receive an inch or less of snow. Though, as usual, the central and northern Green Mountains could pick up a few inches from this. 

The weekend will be typical Vermont early March. Clouds, a little sun, blustery winds, maybe a snow shower or two in the mountains and chilly.

Of course, it's March now, so "chilly" doesn't mean the same thing it did in the middle of winter.  Friday through Sunday, we can expect highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens. 

A small Alberta Clipper storm Monday might throw some snowflakes at us, too, but nothing huge.

Weather forecasting beyond a few days out is always iffy, especially in March, so I won't promise too much one way or another for next week.  But early indications are no big storms, and a temperature trend that might give us afternoon thaws with temperatures in the 40s and overnight freezes.

Perfect for maple sugaring, so there's always that big of potential good weather news.