Videos Show The Wild And Often Scary March Weather This Year

A huge tornado in Illinois early this month. Video of the events
is included in this post 

The first three weeks of March have been a wild weather ride in the United States. The weird weather is continuing, but as we often do, we're looking back at some of the most dramatic weather videos in recent weeks. 

We have a real variety pack this week so let's settle in and watch the excitement. 

This is a view of a deadly tornado in Union City, Michigan on March 6.  It's a view from the south side of Union Lake as the tornado tears through the north side. This view is closer, though, and also includes its initial development. You also see at the end it crosses the still partially frozen lake. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that.

Drone footage showing the aftermath of the tornado in Union City, Michigan. It looks like it hit a nice lakefront area. As always, click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that.

Kind of a long video, but it's worth if for the visuals. It's distant shots of the powerful tornado on Tuesday in Kankakee, Illinois. If  you ever wondered about the green clouds that people talk about when a tornado is near, this is it. 

The greenish bluish hue was due to the fact there as an enormous amount of hail in the storm clouds. The large hail caused a lot of damage even outside the path of the tornado. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

More locally, we had our abrupt March thaw in and near Vermont that brought temperatures to record high levels. The sudden thaw helped create ice jams in area river.\

Here is an iIce jam on the Ausable River in New Yor breaking loose.  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that:

Next up, my own video of an ice jam, this one on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg, Vermont. Note at 2:30 the birds all go silent just before the jam starts to move. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

If you want to feel chilled to the bone, watch this Fox Weather video of the March 14-16 blizzard in Marquette, Michigan. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that. 

People stuck on an interstate after March 15 blizzard near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In Oshkosh, Minnesota, Lake Winnebago created what is known as an "ice shove." The ice  on the lakebroke up in thawing temperatures. Strong winds blew the ice onshore onshore, forming immense piles. The ice piles threatened homes but at last check hadn't reached them. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Montpelier, Vermont Has Systems To Prevent Ice Jams

The ice jam that caused the devastating flood in downtown
Montpelier in 1992 The city has now created measures
to prevent this from happening again

Ice jams are cropping up in Vermont and surrounding areas of the North Country, threatening abrupt floods as the ice dams up rivers swollen by melting snow. 

Montpelier, Vermont has a rough history with ice jams. In 1992, an ice jam formed along the Winooski River, which runs through the city. Water backed up and flooded virtually all of downtown Montpelier causing millions of dollars in damage.

This is easily one of the most dangerous ice jam seasons in years. A particularly cold winter allowed ice to form thick, strong sheets over the rivers. 

An abrupt and strong March thaw is rapidly melting the snow. That in turn is swelling the rivers and breaking up the ice.  A slower, more gradual thaw would have weakened the river ice, reducing the chances big chunks would pile up against obstacles to form dams.

But here we are. Montpelier, though, has a bunch of ice jam prevention plans and gizmos set up to avoid a repeat of 1992. Or a repeat of the summer of 2023 for that matter, when another flood trashed downtown Montpelier.

This all started in January, as it has every year since 2013 in Montpelier. Since the beginning of the year, the city has discharged treated wastewater into the Winooski River at three locations. That water is around 42 degrees, so it weakens ice in the river and creates channels where water a freely flow, as WPTZ reports. 

=The city has deployed a long-reach excavator to help move ice downstream if it starts jamming up in Montpelier, said Kurt Motyka, the city's public works director. 

So far, there are no reports of ice jam trouble in or near Montpelier during this warm spell. Other areas as of early this afternoon still have ice jams. I was up in Enosburg late this afternoon and, if anything, the ice jam near Boston Post Road is getting a little worse. 

A lot more ice chunks were coming down from upstream and adding to the jam. The jam started moving while I was there, but then stalled again after moving about 100 yards downstream. These things are unpredictable and things change near ice jams in an instant. 

Which is why Montpelier has invested so much in battling ice jams. 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

Sunday Morning Clouds To Clear, Allowing Vermont Rapid Thaw To Continue. HUGE Question Marks Wednesday

Snow cover in my St. Albans, Vermont  back yard
during a sunny interval early Saturday afternoon.....

 The thaw is on, and it's impressive to see how much snow disappeared from my St. Albans, Vermont yard in just 24 hours. 

Most of the warmth yesterday was west of the Green Mountains and at high elevations where the warm air was really able to flow in on strong south winds.

 In Burlington, winds gusted as high as 49 mph Saturday as temperatures reached 50 degrees with sunny intervals overhead.  

Some of us experienced the remnants of what had been strong to severe thunderstorms in western New York. Here in St. Albans, I had a brief gush of particularly strong winds and a brief downpour last evening.  

Some valleys in eastern Vermont stayed in the 30s to around 40 as the south winds couldn't scour out the chill. The snow cover helped create a temperature inversion of shallow cold air, which the winds aloft couldn't overcome.

Springfield was really socked in, as the inversion created a dense overcast, fog and drizzle, They never got past 39 degrees The missed out in the periods of sun western Vermont saw. 

It stayed warm overnight, except in those eastern valleys so the melt continued. The first real ice jam of this thaw formed in the Mad River.  That river is prone to this sort of thing. A flood warning was up for parts of the Mad River Valley this morning due to some water backing up behind the ice jam. 

TODAY

.....and the same backyard view at around 9 a.m. this
morning. We lost a LOT of snow!

What the south winds couldn't do yesterday the sun will today. That is once the sun comes out later this morning.  

Looking at satellite photos, there's quite a few clouds upstream. That makes me less optimistic than many forecasts I've seen calling for a mostly sunny afternoon. I might be missing something, but we'll see.   

But in any event, at least some sun will come out, and that sun should break up any remaining inversion in eastern Vermont.

Almost everyone should even out in the mid 40s to low 50s this afternoon. It was almost that warm in western Vermont early this morning, but a weak flow of cooler air will slow the rate at which we'll warm up.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

There's our sunshine and warmth. Well, at least partial sunshine. It looks like a few clouds will streak the sky Monday, but that won't stop us from getting well into the 50s. Maybe low 60s in a couple spots.  It'll also be kinda windy in the Champlain Valley.

This warm spell has already created record highs in dozens of cities in the central and eastern parts of the nation.  We'll see many more record highs early this week. 

Here in Vermont, it'll be close, but probably no cigar.  Tomorrow's record high in Burlington is 70, so we won't reach that. Tuesday's record high is 63, and I'm doubting that one too, as we're still looking at the risk of slightly cooler air coming down from Quebec.

Still, the record high tomorrow in St Johnsbury is just 60 degrees, so that could be threatened if it gets a little warmer than forecast. And Montpelier's record high on Tuesday is also 60.

Lately, our warm spells have been over-performing, so who knows? Maybe we'll be surprised. 

WEDNESDAY

Speaking of surprises, the computer models are still at odds for Wednesday and how an incoming storm might affect us. One scenario is the storm going to our west, running up over central New York and heading toward maybe Montreal.  That would keep the warm air in Vermont until the cold front arrives Thursday morning. 

That would mean a road of heavy rain before the cold front and some possible flooding. Other scenarios bring the storm further south across New England. That would allow colder air to arrive ahead of the storm. That means at least northern Vermont would end up with mixed precipitation and some snow. 

So, we don't know if our brief heat wave will end Wednesday morning or Thursday morning. We also don't know what kind of weather we'll see at the end of our warm spell. The forecast I'd give now is not at all helpful for Wednesday and Thursday:  Rain, or snow or a mix with highs from the mid 30s to low 60s.

It's kind of annoying that we don't really know what kind of weather we'll have in three days, but that's the nature of March. It really is the most unpredictable weather month of the year.

Oh, and it looks like another storm might sweep through here Friday or Saturday with snow or mixed precipitation. That might be followed by yet another storm a week from Tuesday. Local meteorologists are really going to have to stay on their toes. 

 

The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Minor Storm Brought Vermont Road Issues, More Ice To Come Then Huge "False Spring"

From Facebook. Things got snarled up in the snow
yesterday in far southern Vermont. I believe this is
Route 9 in Searsburg. 

Our little storm last night wasn't really that bad or memorable, but it proved it doesn't take much to make a mess. 

Yesterday afternoon, it looks like they had to shut down Route 9 over the mountains between Bennington and Brattleboro because road conditions got so bad so quickly. The roads were pretty awful across southern Vermont during the afternoon commute. 

The snow abruptly came into Burlington last evening. Reports were it was slow going on Interstate 89, not so much because he road was slippery, but because the large snowflakes, blowing erratically in the wind, annoyingly made visibility terrible. 

This morning, Interstate 89 around Milton was seriously backed up due to a crash or crashes, presumably in part because there was lingering slush on the roads. It must have been frustrating with stuck there, with the warm March sunshine streaming through windshields and water from melting snow trickling pass car tires just sitting there in the traffic jam. 

Nice morning today, but Vermont AOT web cam showed
traffic really backed up on Interstate 89 in Milton,
possibly partly due to lingering slush on the
road from last night's burst of snow. 

I don't have much in the way of snowfall reports, but judging from traffic cameras, the expected one to three inches fell, with perhaps locally more in some high elevations. 

Burlington has 1.3 inches. Far northern Vermont missed out, as expected. I only had 0.2 inches here in St. Albans, which had already largely disappeared in the morning sunshine. 

We'll have one more wintry bump in the road before we get the big thaw this weekend that will be our false spring.  I define false spring as the first spell of balmy weather,  usually in late February or March, before winter weather returns. 

Let's get into the daily forecast. There's been a few changes since we last checked in with this yesterday. 

TODAY

Despite what all those people stuck on Interstate 89 thought this morning, today will truly be a nice one. The sun had returned, or was in the process of return, by around 8:30 or so today.

Maple sugar makers might get a decent run today as highs get into the low or even mid 40s. We'll have a fair amount of sunshine as well. 

THURSDAY 

We have some changes to the forecast, mostly in the Champlain Valley. That cold high pressure in Quebec we've been talking about will be taking hold. It looks like the high pressure might be a tad further south in Quebec than first thought. That means  chilly low level air will start to bleed down into the valley. Instead of highs in the low 40s that had been forecast, it'll barely make it to 32 degrees.

The cold air will have trouble making it east of the Greens, so places like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury should still make it at least into the upper 30s. Southern Vermont still looks like they'll see another sap run day with highs passing 40 degrees.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

The fact that the cold air from Quebec is asserting itself a little more is a problem. The next weather disturbance coming along will run into that shallow layer of cold air settling into northern New England while warm air flows in aloft.

There's are classic recipe for freezing rain and sleet. I'm seeing varying scenarios as to how much we'll get. At the moment, it does't look like the icy stuff won't come down hard, but you need just a teeny tiny bit to make things miserable. After hacking the ice off your car to get in, you next need to deal with very slick roads. 

I think the trees and power lines are safe, though. It doesn't look like we'll have enough ice to cause that kind of damage. 

Thursday evening's commute is safe, as we won't have anything worse than thickening clouds then. But Friday morning could be a real mess. 

A couple other things could happen, one of which would help. It's possible the cold high pressure will get so strong that it could deflect all precipitation away from some areas north of Route 2. That' scenario is unlikely, but it's one that I'd love to see. 

The other one is that the warm aloft might erode and turn colder. That, in turn would change precipitation to snow for a time Friday morning. Snow is at least a little better than freezing rain. This scenario is slightly more likely, but not definite. 

By Friday afternoon, temperatures should crawl back above freezing. It looks like the day will just be cloudy, raw and damp. 

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY

The next wave of rain will arrive Friday night. Or freezing rain, unfortunately. It still might be cold enough east of the Green Mountains for some ice. Increasing south winds west of the Greens should keep things just wet.

Temperatures should rocket upward Saturday afternoon so that it could get into the 50s in some areas. Dew points, a measure of how humid it is, will get into the 40s. That's pretty high for this time of year. 

Snow melts faster with higher humidity, so we might start getting into trouble Saturday and Saturday evening with ice breaking up on rivers, so we'll need to keep an eye on that. One bright spot is the it looks like the rain will be mostly light and sort of on and off. It won't add much to the runoff.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

It still looks like decidedly springlike weather looks like it's on the way. Sunday looks slightly cooler and definitely less humid than Saturday, so that will probably temporarily slow the melt runoff into the rivers. 

But Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday look interesting. A summer-like Bermuda high will set up, bringing us temperatures that will possibly threaten record highs. And once again bring high humidity for this time of year which just eats up snow. ]\

Whatever snow is left in the valleys will melt super fast, and many low elevations that are now deep in snow will be looking at bare ground by next week. 

Some preliminary data suggests some area rivers might go over their banks, and we'll still have the risks of ice jams. which of course can cause flooding if they dam up rivers in the wrong spots.

Early guesses are we'll go back to wintry reality by the end of next week. Of course, cold snaps tend to start losing their bite this time of year. By no means do I expect any subzero cold to return. Instead, just the usual March schmutz.

Vermont Transition To Warmer Weather To Be A Little Messy

Today and this evening's snow forecast.  A few inches
in the southern Green Mountains. Very little far north.
This is part of our transition to a warmer weather
pattern. We'll finally get a thaw, eventually.

 I hope early risers got to see the lunar eclipse at dawn today. 

I didn't quite luck out with it. Literally the only cloud in the sky obscured the view of it from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont. Oh well, it's a nice morning anyway. Although weird.

I say weird because temperatures were all over the place this morning. It was below zero again in places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Morrisville. 

West of the Green Mountains, it was in the teens. As south winds began to blow, Burlington rocketed upward to 24 degrees, a 14 degree boost from a few hours earlier. 

We've now begun the transition to a warmer weather pattern. This being Vermont, there are some complications with that. Which is typical.  At least the iffy weather this week doesn't look particularly extreme. 

The trouble might actually start when we do get into the warm air this weekend. More on that in a minute. 

TODAY

The sunshine you might have seen early this morning will fade behind. The wide range in temperatures will even out later this morning and most of us will top out somewhere in the 30s. 

The trouble comes from a small storm that will send some wet snow our way. It will slowly spread northward across the state today.  And I do mean slowly. It'll start around Bennington early this afternoon and not make to places like Burlington, St. Johnsbury and St. Albans until early this evening. 

Also, the further north you go the less snow will fall.

Far southern Vermont - Bennington and Windham counties - are under a winter weather advisory this afternoon and overnight. That's because the initial thump of snow could briefly come down pretty hard this afternoon. And later, toward evening, there could be some light sleet and freezing rain.

Snow accumulation in the winter weather advisory zone will be two to five inches, with the highest totals in the southern Green Mountains.

That harder thump of snow, as noted, will slowly head north, but tend to weaken as it does so. We'll still see a good two inches of fairly wet snow in many places all the north almost to Route 2.  Some of the central Vermont Green Mountains might see three or four inches. 

Central Vermont might see some slippery roads for today's afternoon commute. 

The intensity of the snow will continue to fade as it reaches northern Vermont this evening. Places way up north like St. Albans and Newport will see less than an inch.

Later tonight, all areas could see some patchy freezing drizzle, so there might be a few issues here and  there o the roads first thing tomorrow. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

I hope Vermont's maple sugarers are ready for this. Both days should hit the low 40s (some upper 30s in the cold spots) with at least partly sunny skies. 

This will start to erode the snow cover nicely, especially on south and west facing slopes that collect the heat of the sun. The March sun is strong enough that I noticed it was melting snow in sunny corners yesterday even though temperatures were only in the low 20s. 

But these two nice days won't complete our transition into our upcoming false spring. 

Some precipitation is coming at us Thursday night and Friday. But, as mentioned yesterday, strong, frigid high pressure will be temporarily building up in northern Quebec. That will probably result in mixed precipitation. 

Exactly how that plays out is still in question. But whatever comes out of the sky doesn't look torrential. It'll probably be heaviest south. More details to come.  

WARM WEEKEND

It still looks like it'll get into the upper 40s and low 50s Saturday through Monday. It also looks like we'll get some rain Saturday. Again, nothing torrential, but still.

The rapid thawing and rain will send water flowing into our iced up rivers. The ice will start to shift and move. This is when we'll need to keep an eye out for ice jams that could cause some local flooding. 

It's only mid-March, so the warm weather won't last forever. It's hard to say how long the mild spell will last. But don't worry, more winter is inevitable. Meanwhile, enjoy the upcoming mild spell. 

Are Pennsylvania Ice Jams A Glimpse Of Vermont's Early Spring Future?

An ice jam in Swanton, Vermont after a rainy, warm
January thaw in 2018. This will be the first early
spring in a few years in which ice jams are
a real concern However, there's no
evidence that there's anything imminent. 

 Rain and a spring thaw in parts of Pennsylvania last week caused several potential dangerous ice jams.

Luckily, the Pennsylvania jams either broke up fast enough to prevent serious damage or hit in rural areas where there was little to damage. But those jams last week prompted some flash floods warnings and evacuations. 

It was a reminder, though, that a winter with lots of cold and snow can really create trouble when the spring thaw arrives in earnest. 

The same thing could happen here in Vermont later this spring. 

After a bitterly cold late January and early February. the weather abruptly turned in western Pennsylvania last Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms dumped bursts of heavy rain on that region last night. By noon Friday, Pittsburgh's temperature was up to 63 degrees. 

That kind of late winter weather is a recipe for ice jams. Thick ice on rivers broke up in that weather, and the chunks of ice got stuck on river beds, bridge abutments and other obstacles. 

 It has temporarily gotten colder in Pennsylvania, so the risk of ice jam floods has eased. But if there are still frozen waterways there or anywhere else, there's a risk of ice jam floods as we head toward spring.

"Anywhere else" includes here in Vermont.

Pennsylvania's experience makes me wonder what might happen in Vermont later this spring. Ice on the rivers is thicker than it's been in years. There's a fair amount of snow on the ground ready to melt.

No real thaws or heavy rain is in the forecast. But a little more snow is in the pipeline. Thankfully no big storms, though. The later we get into March without a thaw, the more likely the weather could change abruptly to something warm and rainy. Which would set us up for ice jams. 

As prepped as Vermont seems for ice jam floods, we have a more than decent chance of avoiding trouble. In Vermont's history, we've had winters that were much colder, much snowier and much icier than this one. After most of those winters, the spring melt was gradual enough to only give us the usual minor spring lowland flooding. 

I'm only bringing this up because this is the first winter we've had in awhile in which river ice has gotten thick enough to build strong ice jams if the weather is right for them. 

To avoid trouble, we'll want perfect sugaring weather. That means mild, thawing afternoon and chilly subfreezing nights with only light precipitation. Under those conditions, the snow and ice softens and  gradually melt. . 

If we have a sudden, rainy warmup later in March, and the ice jams do develop, we can still be just fine.

Much like in Pennsylvania, our ice chunks under this fast thaw scenario would get hung up on river bends and other obstacles. The ice jam would then create flooding just upstream fro where the stuck ice is.  

Where these ice jams set up would spell the difference between slight inconveniences and real trouble. The unlikely but worst case scenario would be an ice jam just downstream from Montpelier. That would back the water up into the downtown, like it did so devastatingly in 1992.

Since Montpelier is to some extent recovering from the even worse July, 2023 flood, we don't need that. 

Bottom line: Don't panic, since there's absolutely no reason to. Instead just be aware if we have a spell of warm, rainy weather coming up over the next month.  

Another Massive U.S. Storm To Cause Even More Trouble Than Last Week's Biggie

Here's one depiction of what the huge storm
expected Friday through the weekend will look
like on weather maps Saturday morning.
You can see that it's affecting a huge area.

 Many big storms that hit the United States in March and April tend to bring a wide variety of dangerous weather. 

Storms this time of year typically come into California, re-form in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, then turn into strong systems with blizzards to the northwest, wildfire weather to the southwest, and severe storms and tornadoes to the southeast. 

We had just such a large storm last week. 

Now a new one is gathering force. But this one is more extreme, with more weirdness. And the hazards associated with it are definitely worse than usual.

We in Vermont will be affected by this storm, too, with our risk being flooding. More on that down below, but we'll give the big national picture first.

THE START

The storm has splashed ashore in California. It was raining hard in much of the Los Angeles area, and locals were bracing for the risk of dangerous debris flows from the areas that had those exceptionally awful fires in January. 

People have already been evacuated from the most vulnerable areas.  Some residents whose houses managed to survive the fires could see them ultimately damaged or destroyed by landslides, debris flows and flooding today. 

Up in California's Sierra Nevada mountains, two to four feet of snow is anticipated. That's actually a good thing, as you want the snow pack to build up in the mountains. It will eventually melt and help keep reservoirs filled.

But for now travel through the Sierras is not recommended until the storm passes.

All this California drama is just a foretaste of the trouble this storm will bring to much of the Lower 48. 

STORM WINDS UP

Overnight tonight, the storm will start to organize over Colorado.  It will strengthen really, really fast, to become a powerhouse on a path that will take it from roughly western Kansas midday Friday to somewhere around Minnesota and Wisconsin on Saturday. 

The weather is about to get pretty weird and extreme in much of the Great Plains because of all this. Let's go visit my friends and relatives over in Yankton, South Dakota as a for-example.

Today, it could actually hit 80 degrees in Yankton. Strong, dry south winds are also creating a nasty rangeland fire risk for that area today - along with most of the western and central Plains.

Friday in Yankton, it will be warm and kinda humid with highs in the low 70s.  Thunderstorms might break out later in the day, and some could be severe.

Friday night, it rains, then it snows, then it turns blizzardy and north winds begin to howl and colder air rushes in. You probably won't want to drive anywhere near Yankton Saturday morning. By Monday, it will be over, and Yankton will enjoy a sunny day with highs approaching 70.

Go figure.

At least Yankton isn't really in too much danger from any wholesale destructive, super deadly weather. I can't say the same for other areas. Here are some of the biggest concerns:

WILDFIRES

The storm will pull super dry air out of northern Mexico and New Mexico and whisk it into the southern and central Plains Saturday.  Amid that dry air winds could gust to 60 mph. 

Usually, this type of dangerous fire weather mostly affects sparsely populated areas of western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

This is different. The worst fire risk is near cities like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas, and Lubbock, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas, Texas.  Fast moving wildfires could overwhelm suburban neighborhoods and potentially burn a lot of houses down. 

This likely wildfire outbreak is much more dangerous than usual. 

TORNADOES

The areas under the gun for severe storms and tornadoes are larger than usual for an early spring storm. Also, at this point, the chances of some areas seeing strong, long lasting tornadoes also seems to be on the high side. 

The huge area in yellow, orange and especially red is
under the gun for severe storms and tornadoes
on Friday. More tornadoes are due Saturday, too.

This will almost certainly be the biggest tornado outbreak so far this young severe weather season. That's not to say there won't be even worse severe weather outbreaks later in the season, but this one looks really bad for mid-March. 

On Friday, a huge area from southern Minnesota down to Mississippi and Alabama is under the gun. The highest risk area seems to be southeastern Iowa to Mississippi with Illinois being a particular bullseye. 

A squall line with intense thunderstorm winds and embedded tornadoes is expected to blast through this area Friday. On Friday night, strong tornadoes are possible in the southern end of this risk zone

On Saturday, the severe weather zone remains huge, but this time it will extend from northwest Pennsylvania and Ohio down to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

While any of these area could see damaging storm gusts and tornadoes, it's the South that is most worrisome. Intense, long lasting tornadoes are possible in eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and maybe Tennessee on Saturday and Saturday night. This is a potentially really dangerous situation,

On Sunday, the threat of severe storms and tornadoes will run along the East Coast from Pennsylvania and New Jersey south to Florida. 

In other parts of the U.S., the storm will cause heavy snow, high winds and flooding in various locations through the weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As mentioned yesterday, we are watching the risk of flooding.  

The actual storm will pass far to our west, but it's bringing a boatload of unseasonably warm, humid air northward, and that will be over us in the Green Mountain State during the weekend.  That will get the snow melting very quickly. 

The storm's cold front -  the one expected to cause all those severe weather and tornadoes in the Midwest and South - will swing into our neck of the woods by Sunday. 

We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms, but we could get some downpours out of this. Between the rapidly melting snow and the rain on Sunday and Sunday night, we're still looking at a real flooding risk in Vermont. 

There are several ice jams left over from last week's thaw that could  cause trouble.  The surge of water from melting snow, and additional floating ice could make the jams worse and start some flooding. Or, the jams could break up, then re-form further downstream.

The National Weather Service is already watching an ice jam behind Tractor Supply in Montpelier where the Stevens Branch empties into the Winooski. That is upstream from downtown Montpelier, but if this one lets go and gets stuck again below the Bailey Avenue bridge, which sometimes happens, we could have some real trouble. Chances are it won't happen but it needs to be watched. 

Other ice jams that could cause flooding this weekend  that the National Weather Service office in South Burlington is watching include one along the Lamoille River near Wolcott; along the Jail Branch in East Barre behind the VFW; in Moretown near where the Mad River empties into the Winooski River; along the Passumpsic in Lyndon, and locations along the Missisquoi River in Richford, East Berkshire, and East Highgate. 

Of course, Vermont rivers will be prone to flooding in this episode even if there are no ice jams. People should be getting ready for at least minor flooding by Sunday and Monday.  We'll keep updating as we receive more information regarding the weather threats this weekend. 

So Far, As Of Early This Morning, Only One Vermont Trouble Spot Due To Thaw, But More Could Pop Up

The "Woof River," which is what I call the tiny stream
that runs by my St. Albans, Vermont house flowing
for the first time in awhile with our thaw. Forecasters
are watching for ice jams on larger rivers today.
Hard to see here, but there's evidence an ice jam
backed up water behind a culvert under my
driveway overnight, but the ice jam has since 
broken free and there's no damage or trouble. 

 As expected, Vermont had a rainy, warm overnight, and there's noticeably less snow on the ground compared to yesterday.  

Still a lot of snow in many areas, but it's diminished. 

As the runoff from the snowmelt and rain continues, rivers are starting to rise, ice is beginning to crack and move, so we have the risk of ice jams and the flooding those can cause.

As of 7 a.m. I've seen just one trouble spot so far.  The river gauge along the Mad River near Moretown started acting weird. Around midnight, the river there started to rise rapidly, and the pace accelerated.

Then, in the 15 minutes ending at 4 p.m. the river rose by 2.68 feet into flood stage.  That kind of change is a tell-tale sign of an ice jam.  So a flood warning was up for that section of the Mad River early this morning. 

Water levels near this river gauge then stabilized. After 7 a.m., water levels at the Moretown gauge began to abruptly fall, hinting that the ice jam broke or moved further downstream.  The jam could still get more intense and raise water further downstream, flooding new areas.

That's not just true along the Mad River. It could happen anywhere an ice jam decides to form. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has noted some ice movement along the Lamoille River, and the East Branch of the Passumpsic River in the Northeast Kingdom.  Same thing is happening on some other smaller Vermont creeks and streams. 

So far,  these haven't resulted in ice jams, but they might.

Rainfall with this storm was in line with expectations - most place saw anywhere from a third to two thirds of an inch of rain. Temperatures rose well into the 40s to a few low 50s last night, too. So yeah, the snow is really melting. 

NEXT UP

The end of the thaw is coming later this afternoon. We are going to see some more rain, but not much. Showers were pretty liberally scattered around the state as of 7 a.m. 

The relative warmth - temperatures in the mid 40s for the most part, should hang on through early to mid-afternoon. Then the cold front arrives, and it's back to winter for awhile.

The snow melt run off will slowly wane, so the threat of new ice jams will begin to fade late this afternoon into tonight. 

The cold front might renew the rain showers briefly, but they'll quickly switch over to snow showers. Most of us will just receive an inch or less of snow. Though, as usual, the central and northern Green Mountains could pick up a few inches from this. 

The weekend will be typical Vermont early March. Clouds, a little sun, blustery winds, maybe a snow shower or two in the mountains and chilly.

Of course, it's March now, so "chilly" doesn't mean the same thing it did in the middle of winter.  Friday through Sunday, we can expect highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens. 

A small Alberta Clipper storm Monday might throw some snowflakes at us, too, but nothing huge.

Weather forecasting beyond a few days out is always iffy, especially in March, so I won't promise too much one way or another for next week.  But early indications are no big storms, and a temperature trend that might give us afternoon thaws with temperatures in the 40s and overnight freezes.

Perfect for maple sugaring, so there's always that big of potential good weather news. 

Rainy, Mild March Vermont Day To Set Off A Bit Of A Flood Threat

Footprints and paw prints in last evening's snow, now
turned to melting slush as today's rainy thaw began
moving into the St. Albans, Vermont area this morning. 

 Welcome to the first truly rainy, mild day of spring, 2025 in Vermont. 

It will indeed rain most of the day statewide, and temperatures in many areas will warm to levels not seen since late December. 

Yes, rain and warm temperatures equals snow melt and a risk of flooding and ice jams. 

However, the conditions of the snow cover before the rains started, and the middling amount of rain in the forecast means this time around, flooding shouldn't be very extensive. 

 Ice jams are possible, of course but unless one forms in a very, very bad spot near a village or town along a river, we should be largely OK.

Knock on wood, there should only be a few scattered ice jams. Take it seriously though. f there is any kind of high water or jammed up ice, it's most likely tonight or tomorrow. 

Also, as we always know in early March, winter is NOT over so of course we'll need to deal with some of those issues coming up.

OK, the big picture is out of the way, let's get into the details:

TODAY

After a burst of snow and a little rain in northern Vermont last evening, things got quiet and warm-ish overnight. It was in the 30s to low 40s and western Vermont as of 6 a.m. but still a little below freezing east of the Green Mountains. 

Meanwhile, rain was moving in from the southwest, and should get through most of the Green Mountain State by mid to late morning. 

Sprinkles of rain have already made it into Vermont as of 7 a.m. but the main bands of it were still just approaching southwest parts of the state. 

There might briefly be a few patches of freezing rain at the start where it's cold in eastern Vermont, but that should resolve itself pretty quickly. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement that warns of potential black ice, especially on bridges, overpasses and around curves through this morning's rush hour in central and eastern Vermont. 

There's even a couple of pockets of cold air left in parts of Rutland County, so it could get slick there, too, for a little while this morning. 

The bulk of the rain should come through during the day today and the first half of tonight. Rainfall amounts might be as little as a quarter inch in the far northern Champlain Valley to up to an inch in southern Vermont. 

If there were no snow and ice to melt, that amount of rain we expect is absolutely no big deal. Just a routine amount for any storm system. 

But there is snow and ice to melt. Plenty of it in some areas. Obviously, only some of it will melt in this episode. And especially in high elevations and in eastern Vermont it might take awhile for it to start melting. 

Meteorologists say the snow has to "ripen" first. That means the temperature of the snow cover has to rise enough so that it starts spewing water from melting.  By the time the snowpack "ripens" in areas with deeper snow especially, the bulk of the rain will be over. 

It will stay warm overnight. In fact, high temperatures today in the mid and upper 40s to near 50 probably won't be reached until we get toward evening. Readings will stay at those levels overnight and into Thursday morning. 

The air will have an oddly humid, springlike feel to it, too. Humid air melts snow much more effectively than dry air, so even after most of the rain is over, the snow in many areas will be melting pretty rapidly. 

FLOOD/JAM POTENTIAL

If we have any flooding or ice jams at all in this episode, they are most likely to  happen overnight and through Thursday. 

There is a lot of water in the snow pack. The National Weather Service estimates the amount of water coming out of the snow through melting tonight and Thursday would be the equivalent of 1.5 to two inches of rain in parts of central and southern Vermont. 

That might well be enough to make river levels rise enough to break up the thick ice covering parts of those rivers. The ice starts to flow downstream, hits an obstruction, so the ice just backs up behind that obstruction and voila! You have an ice jam.

These things form quickly, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep an eye on the river ice and be prepared to skedaddle if you see water backing up behind an ice jam.  You won't have all that much time to deal with it. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. But where any of those few ice jams form, it could be locally a very, very big problem. Any river from about the Winooski south in Vermont is at some risk of an ice jam or two. 

Even without ice jams, some rivers, like the Otter Creek, Mad River and Winooski, might get pretty high, and could peak just a little under minor flood stage during and just after this thaw.

In northern Vermont, where it will take longer for the snow to "ripen" only about the equivalent of an inch of rain will ooze out of those big snowbanks through melting. That reduces the chances of ice jams in northern Vermont. 

COLD RETURNS

It's only early March, so the cold will return, though not to the subzero levels we saw Monday morning.

The storm's cold front will come through Thursday afternoon with little precipitation but falling temperatures. Early afternoon will be balmy, and by the time the sun sets, you'll be starting to notice a  chill in the air. 

You'll need to watch it a bit Friday morning. By then, everything will have frozen back up again. Including any standing water left on untreated roads. Light snow showers will add to the back-to-winter scenario.

Snowfall won't amount to much. Most of us will see less than an inch, though the central and northern Green Mountains might pick up one to as much as four inches of new snow between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning. 

Friday itself will be blustery and cold with temperatures staying at or below freezing. It should stay below freezing all weekend, including during the days. Though banana belt towns in low elevation southern Vermont could poke into the mid 30s both Saturday and Sunday. 

Early guesses are the next week or so should be fairly mellow, with frequent chances of a little snow or even rain later in the week, but nothing heavy.  

Next week will be a bit changeable and unpredictable too. As is typical in March, Vermont will be right near the springtime battleground between mild air to the south and still-wintry air encompassing most of Canada. 

One Benefit Of Warm Vermont Winter: Ice Jam Flooding Risk So Far Very Low

An ice jam on the Mississquoi River after a thaw in 
January, 2018 diverts water into this Swanton,
Vermont industrial building. 

 If you get a big warm spell accompanied by heavy rain in the late winter or early spring across Vermont, you really run the risk of flooding from ice jams. 

By early February, there should be quite a bit of ice on Vermont rivers, and some of that ice should be pretty thick. 

Not this year. There's hardly any ice on the rivers. 

When a big thaw breaks up the usual river ice, it'll flow downstream until it gets caught on bridge abutments, curves in the river or some other obstruction. 

And, if those chunks of ice are thick, they are not likely to cave under the pressure of more ice and water  coming from  upstream. The collection of ice chunks forms a dam, and flooding results behind this ice dam. 

Just ask anyone who was in downtown Montpelier in March, 1992 what that was like. 

Ice jams like this have historically been a threat almost every winter and spring.

Vermont rivers have remarkably little ice in them at the moment. And the ice that's there is pretty thin, brittle and weak. 

Thick ice on Vermont rivers, ponds and lakes forms when we get a series of cold nights. The near- overcast that has turned us all into tragic victims of Seasonal Affective Disorder has also made our nights incredibly warm. 

January was overall warm, mostly among the top 20 warmest. However, daytime highs in January were generally only sort of milder than average.  Nights were bonkers warm during January, however, among the warmest on record. 

One telling factoid: It got down to 16 degrees in Burlington early this morning, which was the chilliest temperature there since way back on January 22. But this morning's low was still four degrees warmer than normal, but it was still 

As we get into February, temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal maybe all the way to the middle of the month. It looks like we'll have some semi- chilly nights early this week with overnight lows near normal. But another thaw looks like it's coming at the end of the week. 

Clear enough over New England so you can
see snow cover or lack thereof. Lake 
Champlain looks almost entirely free of ice.
Click on pic and zoom in on this view
from this morning. I think the grey, curled
area in middle of lake is a fog bank.

Sure, it could turn really cold in late February and March, and that would certainly increase ice amounts and thickness. But 2024 almost certainly won't be the year of the ice jams. 

LAKE CHAMPLAIN

Meanwhile, much of Lake Champlain remains ice-free.  We haven't been able to get a decent satellite photo of the lake in weeks due to the persistent cloud cover.  So it's been hard to judge how much or how little ice is out there.  

It was better this morning, with mainly clear skies. It looked to me like there was a fog bank in the middle of the lake obscuring some of the view. 

But otherwise, it appears on satellite there is very little ice on the lake, much less than there should be this time of year. 

 Unless it turns intensely cold in late February and we continue to have subzero weather through much of March, Lake Champlain won't entirely freeze. 

 The chances of it being constantly below zero in the first half of March are nil. Which means the lake won't freeze solid again.  

Lake Champlain has only frozen over completely once in the past nine years, though in 2022 it came very close to freezing over, with just one small hole of open water out there in late winter that year.