Another Massive U.S. Storm To Cause Even More Trouble Than Last Week's Biggie

Here's one depiction of what the huge storm
expected Friday through the weekend will look
like on weather maps Saturday morning.
You can see that it's affecting a huge area.

 Many big storms that hit the United States in March and April tend to bring a wide variety of dangerous weather. 

Storms this time of year typically come into California, re-form in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, then turn into strong systems with blizzards to the northwest, wildfire weather to the southwest, and severe storms and tornadoes to the southeast. 

We had just such a large storm last week. 

Now a new one is gathering force. But this one is more extreme, with more weirdness. And the hazards associated with it are definitely worse than usual.

We in Vermont will be affected by this storm, too, with our risk being flooding. More on that down below, but we'll give the big national picture first.

THE START

The storm has splashed ashore in California. It was raining hard in much of the Los Angeles area, and locals were bracing for the risk of dangerous debris flows from the areas that had those exceptionally awful fires in January. 

People have already been evacuated from the most vulnerable areas.  Some residents whose houses managed to survive the fires could see them ultimately damaged or destroyed by landslides, debris flows and flooding today. 

Up in California's Sierra Nevada mountains, two to four feet of snow is anticipated. That's actually a good thing, as you want the snow pack to build up in the mountains. It will eventually melt and help keep reservoirs filled.

But for now travel through the Sierras is not recommended until the storm passes.

All this California drama is just a foretaste of the trouble this storm will bring to much of the Lower 48. 

STORM WINDS UP

Overnight tonight, the storm will start to organize over Colorado.  It will strengthen really, really fast, to become a powerhouse on a path that will take it from roughly western Kansas midday Friday to somewhere around Minnesota and Wisconsin on Saturday. 

The weather is about to get pretty weird and extreme in much of the Great Plains because of all this. Let's go visit my friends and relatives over in Yankton, South Dakota as a for-example.

Today, it could actually hit 80 degrees in Yankton. Strong, dry south winds are also creating a nasty rangeland fire risk for that area today - along with most of the western and central Plains.

Friday in Yankton, it will be warm and kinda humid with highs in the low 70s.  Thunderstorms might break out later in the day, and some could be severe.

Friday night, it rains, then it snows, then it turns blizzardy and north winds begin to howl and colder air rushes in. You probably won't want to drive anywhere near Yankton Saturday morning. By Monday, it will be over, and Yankton will enjoy a sunny day with highs approaching 70.

Go figure.

At least Yankton isn't really in too much danger from any wholesale destructive, super deadly weather. I can't say the same for other areas. Here are some of the biggest concerns:

WILDFIRES

The storm will pull super dry air out of northern Mexico and New Mexico and whisk it into the southern and central Plains Saturday.  Amid that dry air winds could gust to 60 mph. 

Usually, this type of dangerous fire weather mostly affects sparsely populated areas of western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

This is different. The worst fire risk is near cities like Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas, and Lubbock, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas, Texas.  Fast moving wildfires could overwhelm suburban neighborhoods and potentially burn a lot of houses down. 

This likely wildfire outbreak is much more dangerous than usual. 

TORNADOES

The areas under the gun for severe storms and tornadoes are larger than usual for an early spring storm. Also, at this point, the chances of some areas seeing strong, long lasting tornadoes also seems to be on the high side. 

The huge area in yellow, orange and especially red is
under the gun for severe storms and tornadoes
on Friday. More tornadoes are due Saturday, too.

This will almost certainly be the biggest tornado outbreak so far this young severe weather season. That's not to say there won't be even worse severe weather outbreaks later in the season, but this one looks really bad for mid-March. 

On Friday, a huge area from southern Minnesota down to Mississippi and Alabama is under the gun. The highest risk area seems to be southeastern Iowa to Mississippi with Illinois being a particular bullseye. 

A squall line with intense thunderstorm winds and embedded tornadoes is expected to blast through this area Friday. On Friday night, strong tornadoes are possible in the southern end of this risk zone

On Saturday, the severe weather zone remains huge, but this time it will extend from northwest Pennsylvania and Ohio down to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

While any of these area could see damaging storm gusts and tornadoes, it's the South that is most worrisome. Intense, long lasting tornadoes are possible in eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and maybe Tennessee on Saturday and Saturday night. This is a potentially really dangerous situation,

On Sunday, the threat of severe storms and tornadoes will run along the East Coast from Pennsylvania and New Jersey south to Florida. 

In other parts of the U.S., the storm will cause heavy snow, high winds and flooding in various locations through the weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As mentioned yesterday, we are watching the risk of flooding.  

The actual storm will pass far to our west, but it's bringing a boatload of unseasonably warm, humid air northward, and that will be over us in the Green Mountain State during the weekend.  That will get the snow melting very quickly. 

The storm's cold front -  the one expected to cause all those severe weather and tornadoes in the Midwest and South - will swing into our neck of the woods by Sunday. 

We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms, but we could get some downpours out of this. Between the rapidly melting snow and the rain on Sunday and Sunday night, we're still looking at a real flooding risk in Vermont. 

There are several ice jams left over from last week's thaw that could  cause trouble.  The surge of water from melting snow, and additional floating ice could make the jams worse and start some flooding. Or, the jams could break up, then re-form further downstream.

The National Weather Service is already watching an ice jam behind Tractor Supply in Montpelier where the Stevens Branch empties into the Winooski. That is upstream from downtown Montpelier, but if this one lets go and gets stuck again below the Bailey Avenue bridge, which sometimes happens, we could have some real trouble. Chances are it won't happen but it needs to be watched. 

Other ice jams that could cause flooding this weekend  that the National Weather Service office in South Burlington is watching include one along the Lamoille River near Wolcott; along the Jail Branch in East Barre behind the VFW; in Moretown near where the Mad River empties into the Winooski River; along the Passumpsic in Lyndon, and locations along the Missisquoi River in Richford, East Berkshire, and East Highgate. 

Of course, Vermont rivers will be prone to flooding in this episode even if there are no ice jams. People should be getting ready for at least minor flooding by Sunday and Monday.  We'll keep updating as we receive more information regarding the weather threats this weekend.