Thursday Evening Storm Update: First Crack At Vermont Snow, Ice Accumulations, But Still Could Be Huge Changes

An early guess on snowfall in Vermont and surrounding
areas Friday night to Sunday morning. Could be a lot
near the Canadian border if current forecasts come true.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington pulled the trigger this afternoon and issued a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont except the southernmost two counties. 

It goes from late Friday evening all the way to early Sunday afternoon. 

There's new snow and ice accumulation maps out, too, which I'm posting here.  With a big caveat.  The forecast could change drastically.

With the nearly stalled front setting up nearby, ,it won't be the traditional big blob of precipitation. 

Instead, it looks like it will be a narrow band of pretty heavy snow, with an even narrower band of freezing rain just to the south of that. 

The snow band could set up anywhere from southern Quebec to central Vermont. If forecasts issued this afternoon turn out to be accurate,  it looks like the heaviest snow would run along and north of a North Hero to Stowe to St. Johnsbury line. 

The heaviest icing would run through New York's Adirondacks and on through central Vermont. Also depending on where the precipitation sets up and how heavy it gets, the National Weather Service might upgrade the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in a few locations. Stay tuned. 

Early guess from the National Weather Service on 
potential ice accumulation from freezing rain Saturday.
Again, big time subject to change. Watch the red
areas on these ice maps, Those were where tree
damage and power outages are most likely.

I have to repeat myself. That forecast is NOT cast in stone. Updates and changes will come. 

Whatever comes out of the sky, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will come through during the day Saturday. 

Travel will be awful through northern and central Vermont if the forecast comes true. The weight of wet snow and ice from the freezing rain could cause some power outages, too. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

The front will probably temporarily sink southward shutting off most of the precipitation overnight. There might be a little drizzle south and a little freezing drizzle central and north. 

SUNDAY

Our pesky front will work its way north again. At first, freezing rain could redevelop in central and northern Vermont causing more tree and power line damage if the ice accumulates enough.

During the morning, the ice should evolve into a cold plain rain, but the freezing rain could linger well into the afternoon east of the Greens.  The rain should fall relatively lightly, but also continue Sunday night

MONDAY

A weird day, probably.  A larger piece of the storminess will come in, lifting the weather front well to our north. Temperatures might soar into the 50s to near 60 in many areas, and it might feel a little humid.

The warm air might get cut off at the pass in far northwestern Vermont, where a sharp cold front will pre-empt the brief warming. Between the melting snow and continued rain, there could be some flooding problems, but so far, river forecasts aren't setting of major alarm bells. We'll keep an eye on it, but so far, it doesn't look too scary.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY

A sharp cold front will freeze everything up again, but at least the precipitation will pretty much be over. After a brief, dry chilly spell Tuesday and Wednesday, another rather wet storm looks like it might arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Early guesses on that storm make me think that one will be mostly rain.