Minor Storm Brought Vermont Road Issues, More Ice To Come Then Huge "False Spring"

From Facebook. Things got snarled up in the snow
yesterday in far southern Vermont. I believe this is
Route 9 in Searsburg. 

Our little storm last night wasn't really that bad or memorable, but it proved it doesn't take much to make a mess. 

Yesterday afternoon, it looks like they had to shut down Route 9 over the mountains between Bennington and Brattleboro because road conditions got so bad so quickly. The roads were pretty awful across southern Vermont during the afternoon commute. 

The snow abruptly came into Burlington last evening. Reports were it was slow going on Interstate 89, not so much because he road was slippery, but because the large snowflakes, blowing erratically in the wind, annoyingly made visibility terrible. 

This morning, Interstate 89 around Milton was seriously backed up due to a crash or crashes, presumably in part because there was lingering slush on the roads. It must have been frustrating with stuck there, with the warm March sunshine streaming through windshields and water from melting snow trickling pass car tires just sitting there in the traffic jam. 

Nice morning today, but Vermont AOT web cam showed
traffic really backed up on Interstate 89 in Milton,
possibly partly due to lingering slush on the
road from last night's burst of snow. 

I don't have much in the way of snowfall reports, but judging from traffic cameras, the expected one to three inches fell, with perhaps locally more in some high elevations. 

Burlington has 1.3 inches. Far northern Vermont missed out, as expected. I only had 0.2 inches here in St. Albans, which had already largely disappeared in the morning sunshine. 

We'll have one more wintry bump in the road before we get the big thaw this weekend that will be our false spring.  I define false spring as the first spell of balmy weather,  usually in late February or March, before winter weather returns. 

Let's get into the daily forecast. There's been a few changes since we last checked in with this yesterday. 

TODAY

Despite what all those people stuck on Interstate 89 thought this morning, today will truly be a nice one. The sun had returned, or was in the process of return, by around 8:30 or so today.

Maple sugar makers might get a decent run today as highs get into the low or even mid 40s. We'll have a fair amount of sunshine as well. 

THURSDAY 

We have some changes to the forecast, mostly in the Champlain Valley. That cold high pressure in Quebec we've been talking about will be taking hold. It looks like the high pressure might be a tad further south in Quebec than first thought. That means  chilly low level air will start to bleed down into the valley. Instead of highs in the low 40s that had been forecast, it'll barely make it to 32 degrees.

The cold air will have trouble making it east of the Greens, so places like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury should still make it at least into the upper 30s. Southern Vermont still looks like they'll see another sap run day with highs passing 40 degrees.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

The fact that the cold air from Quebec is asserting itself a little more is a problem. The next weather disturbance coming along will run into that shallow layer of cold air settling into northern New England while warm air flows in aloft.

There's are classic recipe for freezing rain and sleet. I'm seeing varying scenarios as to how much we'll get. At the moment, it does't look like the icy stuff won't come down hard, but you need just a teeny tiny bit to make things miserable. After hacking the ice off your car to get in, you next need to deal with very slick roads. 

I think the trees and power lines are safe, though. It doesn't look like we'll have enough ice to cause that kind of damage. 

Thursday evening's commute is safe, as we won't have anything worse than thickening clouds then. But Friday morning could be a real mess. 

A couple other things could happen, one of which would help. It's possible the cold high pressure will get so strong that it could deflect all precipitation away from some areas north of Route 2. That' scenario is unlikely, but it's one that I'd love to see. 

The other one is that the warm aloft might erode and turn colder. That, in turn would change precipitation to snow for a time Friday morning. Snow is at least a little better than freezing rain. This scenario is slightly more likely, but not definite. 

By Friday afternoon, temperatures should crawl back above freezing. It looks like the day will just be cloudy, raw and damp. 

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY

The next wave of rain will arrive Friday night. Or freezing rain, unfortunately. It still might be cold enough east of the Green Mountains for some ice. Increasing south winds west of the Greens should keep things just wet.

Temperatures should rocket upward Saturday afternoon so that it could get into the 50s in some areas. Dew points, a measure of how humid it is, will get into the 40s. That's pretty high for this time of year. 

Snow melts faster with higher humidity, so we might start getting into trouble Saturday and Saturday evening with ice breaking up on rivers, so we'll need to keep an eye on that. One bright spot is the it looks like the rain will be mostly light and sort of on and off. It won't add much to the runoff.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

It still looks like decidedly springlike weather looks like it's on the way. Sunday looks slightly cooler and definitely less humid than Saturday, so that will probably temporarily slow the melt runoff into the rivers. 

But Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday look interesting. A summer-like Bermuda high will set up, bringing us temperatures that will possibly threaten record highs. And once again bring high humidity for this time of year which just eats up snow. ]\

Whatever snow is left in the valleys will melt super fast, and many low elevations that are now deep in snow will be looking at bare ground by next week. 

Some preliminary data suggests some area rivers might go over their banks, and we'll still have the risks of ice jams. which of course can cause flooding if they dam up rivers in the wrong spots.

Early guesses are we'll go back to wintry reality by the end of next week. Of course, cold snaps tend to start losing their bite this time of year. By no means do I expect any subzero cold to return. Instead, just the usual March schmutz.