Vermont: Hope For A Brief Thaw, Then A Couple Days Of Winter, And Then, ????

Hoping this will be one of my last truly wintry views
of my St. Albans, Vermont yard until, well, next winter.

After our expected dusting of snow materialized for many of us yesterday and last night, we're opening our Tuesday morning clear and chilly in much of Vermont. Though it was still quite cloudy in the Northeast Kingdom. 

That cloud arrangement led to a bit of a role reversal this morning. Western Vermont was clear longer, so communities that are usually warmer than most other places - Burlington and Bennington, got down to 18 degrees this morning. Virtually the rest of Vermont was in the 20s. 

Turns out it won't be the gloriously clear day we hoped for, though. Clouds will come in during the afternoon as a weak, completely lame disturbance starts to breeze by to our north.  It'll still get to near 40 degrees, though. 

Good! I didn't bother shoveling the recent snows, figuring daytime sun this time of year would melt it instead. My driveway is now an icy, treacherous mess. It does look like the ice will start to melt today and continue through Thursday. I hope. 

Our lame little disturbance tonight will at most throw a snowflake or two at us. Tomorrow should be roughly a rinse and repeat, with a little sun yielding to clouds.

Those clouds are associated with the next iffy storm we're watching. So far, at least, the forecasts keep trending that storm just to our north. If that's the case, it'll be mostly rain. 

If this forecast holds, we might see a tiny bit of wet snow and light rain with the warm front Wednesday night. Thursday would be dry most of the time, until rain showers arrive later in the day. For now, the temperature range looks wide on Thursday, with highs in the mid 40s at the Canadian border to 60 in warmer valleys near the Massachusetts border.

That range in temperature reflect the usual uncertainty in the storm track. It could still end up going further south than forecast, which would radically change the forecast. The rainy weather would turn into a snowy mess north. But for now, we're going with rain, fingers crossed. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Whatever happens with that storm, we do know for sure a blast of wintry air from Canada will freeze us back up nice and solidly Friday and Saturday. Friday might well be another day, like a few we've had this month, in which the high temperature comes right after midnight. 

The day itself will stay below freezing except in the warmer southern valleys. Same is true for Saturday.

It seems like everything about this now-dying winter comes back to "worst since 2019."  As measured in Burlington, we've had 59 days since winter began in which high temperatures stayed at or below 32 degrees. That is - of course -  the most since the winter of 2018-19, when they're 61 such days. As mentioned, we'll maybe add one or two more subfreezing days toward the weekend. 

By the way, the most subfreezing days in one winter was 93 in the winter of 1969-70.

Anyway, that cold snap will start to wane Sunday. Average temperatures are continuing to rise fast, so whatever happens Friday and Saturday will probably be the most intense cold we feel until next November or December.