Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types.