Vermont Turns Wintry: Snow/Rain Today And Computers Still Arguing Over Weekend Storm

Snowfall amounts don't look huge for today's small 
storm, but a burst of heavy precipitation seems like
it might be timed just perfect to hit during
the afternoon commute 

 Things are taking a wintry turn again in Vermont, as we have two potentially wintry storms. One today, and the next maybe over the weekend. 

After a very weak system left a dusting of snow on much of northern Vermont yesterday, the next one is on our doorstep. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect for northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east, and in the Adirondacks and other parts of northern New York today through almost midnight tonight. 

Those areas should see two to four inches of snow in the valleys, and four to six inches at elevations above 2,000 feet.  

The Champlain Valley is the biggest wild card here. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY'S STORM

On paper, today's storm should be a nothing burger. It's a small, compact little thing coming in from the west. Usually, this type of storm are like last night's: They throw a few inconsequential rain drops and snow flakes at us and call it a day. 

Not this one.  It looks like it's finding some nice lift in the atmosphere. In general, the more vigorously air rises, the more precipitation you get. This little storm has also found some atmospheric moisture to work with. The result: A decent batch of rain and snow for us today.

If this were the middle of winter, all of us in Vermont would be getting somewhere between three and eight inches of snow out of this. But much of this storm is coming during the day in the second half of March. The sun angle is now higher and stronger. Despite the clouds, the sun's warmth will penetrate  those clouds will keep some areas too warm for much snow. 

This makes the forecast tricky. Since the temperatures will be so marginal, one slip of the thermometer will make a big difference. If it ends up a degree or two colder than expected where you are, congratulations, you'll be shoveling snow. If it's a degree or two warmer, it'll just be soggy out there. 

Southern Vermont looks like it will simply be too warm for snow.  Even the high elevations should get very little.

Northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain should be cold enough for mostly snow, though there's a good chance rain would mix in through the valleys. In these areas, your afternoon commute will probably be messy, especially away from valley floors. 

Which brings us to the Champlain Valley. Yes, it's warmer here. But like we've seen so often this year, it's a timing issue that causes just a little bit of snow or ice to become a big problem right during commuting hours. We can't catch a break. 

The heaviest rates of precipitation look like they might be in the mid to late afternoon. When precipitation is heavier, it brings down a little cold air. In this case, that might be enough to change rain to snow. 

And it would come down pretty hard, coating roads pretty quickly. So watch out if you have to drive in the Champlain Valley during the afternoon rush hour. Because chances are it will be the slush hour. The best chance of snowy or icy roads in the Champlain Valley are roughly from about Milton north to the Canadian border. 

This storm won't last long. Give or take, depending on where you are, the heaviest rain or snow should only last four or five hours this afternoon or very early evening east. 

After all that, Saturday should be nice with afternoon highs for most of us coming in within a few degrees either side of 40.  The sun will come out, too.

But then..... 

WEEKEND STORM 

I don't know what to think of the expected storm Sunday and Monday. 

At this time yesterday morning, the computer models suggested the center of the storm would go by a little to our north, and we'd get mostly rain. 

Last evening, some of the models had it going a smidge to Vermont's south, which would give many of us a substantial late March snowfall. 

This morning a few, but not all, indications had the storm going further to our south, which would mean perhaps northern Vermont would escape the worst of it. 

Don't bet on any of the above scenarios just yet. The models are still in disagreement over the ever-important storm track, so it's still a bit of a mystery how much rain and/or snow any particular location in Vermont gets out of this. 

Whatever happens to this will probably be similar to today in the higher elevations are more apt to get snow while valleys have a better chance of a cold rain. 

As I mentioned yesterday, we're now in a rather cool and unsettled weather pattern and I see no end to it until at least the beginning of April