Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

After A Springlike Monday, Winter Returns To Vermont

Huge pile of snow an ice at my front door that 
crashed down seconds after Henry the Weather
Dog warned about it. Thawing temperatures
today will continue to sent ice  and snow
sliding from Vermont roofs

I hope you had a chance to go outside yesterday. It was such a relief to go outside without 15 layers of clothes on. Temperature in the 30s felt like hard core spring compared to what we went through this winter. 

And I have to give great kudos and thanks to Henry the Weather Dog.  He's just a little guy.weighing in at 18 pounds. 

We went outside yesterday afternoon to investigate just how warm it was getting.  The two of us were finishing up and were about to go in through the front door  of the house

A tiny piece of ice fell off the roof. Then Henry heard a noise that I didn't notice. He bolted away from the house. Since he was on a leash, he pretty much yanked me away, too. 

 As soon as we were far enough away, the entire roof load of ice and snow crashed down right where we had been standing by the door.

Both of us really could  have been hurt.  Good boy, Henry! 

That's just a reminder that there are still some big piles of snow and ice on roofs that could come crashing down, since it will be above freezing again today. You might not want to stand beneath one of those roof ice dams, or park your car there. 

Now on to the weather. 

TODAY

Henry the Weather Dog spent much of February like'
this, so he was happy for yesterday's warm weather
despite the close call with the snow sliding off the roof

A lot of us had a little wet snow and freezing drizzle this morning. It wasn't amounting to much and it will tend to taper off as we go through the day. I'm sure the weather this morning left some slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks. It's still that time of year.

It was also mild overnight, which is a nice break on the heating bills. The Champlain Valley stayed in the mid-30s all night while the rest of the state was in the upper 20s for the most part. 

There's no real influx of warm air breezing in, so temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 30s today. A few warmer valleys could hit 40. There won't be much sun today, either.  No complaints here. That's still pretty nice for February.

That will be pretty much it for thawing for awhile. Daily high temperatures for at least the next week after today should mostly be near or below freezing. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

Frustratingly, forecasters are still struggling with what will happen tomorrow. A narrow band of precipitation will make its way into New England. Precipitation will probably come down at a good clip   for awhile in the midst of that band. Most of it should be snow, too. 

So who gets this slap of winter?   It's only a day before the event but the computer models are still struggling. At the moment, the snow band seems to be leaning toward setting up in southern Vermont.  

An early crack at guessing accumulations would bring three or four inches, maybe even five, to the southern half of Vermont. Central Vermont would get a couple inches and places north of Route 2 would see less than an inch. 

Don't be surprised if those  forecast amounts changes by tomorrow.  There's a chance that today's accumulation forecast turns out to be a complete work of fiction. Wherever this sets up, it'll probably come in right in time for the Wednesday afternoon commute. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we'll stay in a wintry, active pattern. It won't be as cold as the first half of February was, but we're not getting an early spring, either. 

There's a solid chance of more snow Friday night from a mid-sized storm coming through. After that, several storms will pass fairly nearby through the rest of the month and into the opening days of March, but it's too soon to know how or even if they'll affect us here in Vermont.  

If you're tired of the snow in your yard, too bad. It's going to be there for awhile. 

Heads Up Vermont: This Morning's Commute Might Be A Slog. Wednesday Might Not Be Much Better

National Weather Service radar at around 5 a.m. today.
The green is fairly heavy snow. That smudge of dark green
and yellow southeast of Burlington is an intense snow
squall. The purple outline depicts a snow squall
warning that was in effect at the time of this radar image.

A line of ferocious snow squalls swept southeastward through northern and central Vermont this morning, dropping a quick inch or two of snow and turning wet or slushy roads into ice skating rinks just in time for your drive to work this morning. 

The squalls will keep heading into southern Vermont by around 7 or 8 p.m., so that part of the state will deal with poor visibility and rapid changes in road conditions.

The squalls might weaken just a tad by the time they reach southern Vermont, but will still be dangerous. 

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of the squalls will be the main problem north of Route 4. Temperatures just after midnight were a little above freezing in many areas. The initial bits of snow just ahead of the snow squalls melted into water on many roads.

Then the snow squalls hit with rapidly falling temperatures and heavy, wind driven, blinding bursts of snow. That water on the roads froze, then snow fell on top of it.

The snow squalls were moving fast enough to only leave an inch or two of new snow in most areas, but that was more than enough to make the roads slick. 

I noticed road crews were out here in St. Albans shortly after the worst of the squall had passed and I'm sure that will be true everywhere else in Vermont.  But there's only so much they can do with crashing temperatures. 

Main roads might improve some through the morning commute, but they won't be entirely cleaned up.

Take it easy, take it slow early this morning. 

This Afternoon

The good news is the snow showers will be out of here this afternoon and roads should be in pretty good shape. Expect a cold day. As noted, we already had our high temperatures for the day. It'll stay in the teens all day if we're lucky and a stiff north wind will make it feel like it's below zero.

But there's no rest for the weary.  Tomorrow's trip to and from work won't be fun either.

Wednesday.

National Weather Service snowfall forecast through 
Thursday morning. Almost all the snow predicted is
from an Alberta clipper storm coming through on
Wednesday. Most of us can expect two to four
inches of fluff on of this one. 

We're on a temperature roller coaster as several quick weather systems come through with snow or even something else possible on Friday. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.  

The crash in temperatures will halt later this evening as an Alberta clipper comes in with clouds and snow. 

Alberta clippers are those fast moving storms that come in northwest to southeast from near Alberta, through or north of the Great Lakes then into our neck of the woods.  

Temperatures will moderate into the 20s tomorrow, but it will also snow pretty much all day. 

The snow will get here before dawn, and it will still be on the cold side in the morning. 

Even though the snow will be coming down lightly, it will still stick effectively to the roads. The plows will be out but it'll be a slow commute once again. The trip home in the evening will feature light snow, too, so even that won't be so great. 

Most of us can expect about two to four inches of fluff out of Wednesday's system, with a little more than that in the mountains. 

Behind this little snowfall, the temperatures will crash once again, getting down to near or even a little below zero by Thursday morning

Thursday And Beyond

The roller coaster continues big time. A break in the weather comes Thursday afternoon as sunshine returns (hopefully) and temperatures mostly stay in the teens. It looks like temperatures will actually start to rise overnight Thursday ahead of our next quick hitter. 

Friday is a wild card.  Another Alberta Clipper will be coming in from the west, while what was the rain storm that tamped down the Southern California wildfires lurks to our south and heads east toward the Atlantic Ocean,

The Friday Alberta clipper might suppress the wetter, southern storm to our south so that it misses us. Or, the clipper  might help draw the southern storm closer to us, giving us somewhat heavier precipitation.

 We don't know yet. Friday will probably be warmer again, possibly near freezing. But we don't know whether we'll see just a little snow and a few raindrops or a somewhat more substantial storm.

Watch this space for updates.

Then, once again, temperatures get frigid again Friday night and Saturday. Then, rinse and repeat as yet another Alberta Clipper comes in next Sunday and Monday with another modest warm up and probably another couple inches of snow. 

I did say in yesterday's post that the weather pattern around here was finally getting a little more exciting, and all this is your proof.

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm/Flood Update: The Worst Starts Now, But Some Good News

Rising waters along a creek in Fairfax, Vermont amid
drenching rains this afternoon. Flooding is still
likely overnight in Vermont, but it shouldn't be
nearly as bad as the one we had last December. 

 A soaking rain has drenched Vermont and much of the rest of New England pretty much all day, as expected. 

As of 5 p.m., that wasn't enough to touch off any flooding around here. At least not yet. 

But the flood threat has always been between early this evening and tomorrow morning. That's still the case. 

The good news is that although flooding looks inevitable to me, it won't be as bad as last December. 

The expected total amount of rainfall from this storm, between what has already fallen and what will come this evening, is a little bit less than the predictions we saw a couple days ago. Which of course is great news. 

Temperatures in northern Vermont have been cooler than forecast, which has slowed the snow melt. They'll briefly bump up this evening well into the 40s before crashing downward later on. 

The dry ground from an autumn of drought has been able to absorb a lot of today's rain. Now things are finally saturated, and small streams and creeks are rising. 

But with stream flows low to start, it'll take quite a bit to get things flooding. They will flood, but unless a big surprise hits with the rain tonight, this shouldn't be anything cataclysmic. This time, anyway.

Since about 99.999999 percent of all Vermonters have at least a hint of PTSD from the frequent big floods we've had over the past couple of years, I know a flood watch gets the heart racing. And not in a good way. 

So people have been nervous about this storm. As always with this kind of thing, channel that nervousness into deep breaths and common sense. Especially since we'll need to be careful with tonight's flood threat, even though we know this probably won't turn out to be a catastrophe. 

You know the drill. Don't drive through flood water. If the road is closed, turn around and find another way to get where you're going. That kind of thing.

THIS EVENING

I supposed there was sort of a lull in the rainfall late this afternoon, but it wasn't much of one, certainly less of a quiet period than expected.  Most of us have had somewhere close to an inch of rain through 5 p.m., give or take. 

A new round of heavier rain was moving into Vermont from the southwest as of 5 p.m. and that will be our big drencher this evening.  We're probably in for another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, plus the snow melt. Which is why the flood watch is still up. 

Most rivers, if they flood, will reach minor flood stage, which is why we don't expect big time destruction once again in those towns and cities in the flood plains. The Otter Creek in Rutland County still looks like it might be the most troublesome one of the bunch. It might get pretty close to homes in Rutland and Center Rutland as it reaches moderate flood stage. 

I do anticipate some trouble with local washouts on back roads and maybe sone culvert trouble here and there. We still expect some road closures tomorrow morning on low lying roads.

Especially once we get past midnight, temperatures are still expected to crash, as we've said in previous forecasts.  We won't get much snow out of it, maybe one to as much as three inches in the mountains 

Areas near Lake Ontario and the western Adirondacks are in for another big lake affect snowstorm tomorrow, but those will diminish to light snow showers and flurries by the time they reach Vermont. It might be good for another inch or two of semi-replacement snow up in the ski areas. 

Thursday will also be blustery and chilly with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 

But after this oddly wet storm, we'll be back to business as usual for December. A couple of weak systems will spread a little light snow, rain or schmutz across Vermont early next week. After a chilly Friday and Saturday, we'll become a little on the warm side for December once again. 

 

Quick Vermont Snow Update: Little Change In Forecast, Mountains Rejoice, Wind, Blowing Snow Everywhere

National Weather Service snow total forecast for this
storm issued this afternoon, is almost identical to the
one issued early this morning. The expected chain of 
events now through Friday is little changed, too.

 Our Alberta clipper storm is here in Vermont as of early this evening, with occasional light snow overspreading the entire region. So here's a brief Wednesday evening update. 

Roads aren't terrible, but there are slick spots, so you'll want to take it easy if out on the highways tonight. That state of affairs will continue all night into early tomorrow morning.

 Snow will keep falling on and off, with not much in the Champlain Valley and probably a plowable snow elsewhere.

We're still on track for snow showers, some locally heavy on Thursday. At this point, I think the afternoon and early evening might end up being the trickiest part.

Temperatures seem like they will rise slightly above freezing in many of the warmer valleys in the late morning and early afternoon. By afternoon and evening, temperatures will fall below freezing as colder air rushes in. Snow showers will continue, and some of them will continue to have some oomph. Winds will strengthen from the northwest. They'll eventually gust to 40 mph.

The combination will freeze roads pretty fast, and the added snow and blowing snow will turn what had been wet main roads in many places to icy, snowy, slow nightmares. Tonight's commute, and tomorrow morning's commute will have their issues. But chances are the worst conditions will be reserved for those of you on the way home late tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Consider working remotely from home if you can tomorrow.

Total snowfall forecasts have not changed. Most of Vermont gets three to eight inches by Friday morning, with something closer to one to four inches in the Champlain Valley. The Green Mountains get six inches to locally a foot or more especially in the far southern and northern Green Mountains.

Expect a cold, blustery day Friday with pretty low wind chill factors. It will at least feel like the coldest day so far this winter. 

We're still expecting another warmup starting Sunday and continuing into midweek. 

Florida Weather Now Deteriorating As Ferocious Hurricane Milton Aims At Late Night Landfall

Dawn breaking on Hurricane Milton this morning in
this visible satellite photo. As you can see, it's nearing
Florida, and nothing has changed about the dread
of how powerful this thing will be when it hits. 

 Early this morning, the weather was already getting lousy - and in a couple instances dangerous - as the influence of powerful Hurricane Milton begin to overspread Florida.  

Things will get worse and worse through the day and evening in advance of the big blow we've been nervously anticipating. 

No miracles happened overnight. Hurricane Milton maintained its Category 5 strength as it makes its way toward Florida. 

The overall forecast hasn't really changed for the past three days and it hasn't changed this morning. Winds won't be 160 mph at landfall - they'll be slightly less than that. 

But that slightly less intense wind doesn't matter at all.  This will very likely be one of the worst hurricanes in Florida's history, which is saying something. The Sunshine State has a long history of incredibly deadly, destructive storms. 

Those historic storms range from the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which killed more than 400 people in and near the Florida Keys, to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which decimated towns south of Miami and killed more than 60 people, to Hurricane Michael in 2018, which pretty much leveled Mexico Beach, Florida and surrounding communities, but people got out of the way of that storm, so the death toll was limited to 16.

I'm hoping everybody is out of the way of Milton before it gets to Florida. Stragglers have maybe a few hours to flee this morning, but even that is iffy. 

MILTON'S MORNING STATUS

At 4 a.m. Hurricane Milton still had top winds of 160 mph. It was about 300 miles southwest of Tampa and heading toward the northeast at 14 miles per hour. Its forward speed is expected to increase during the day today. 

Those winds decreased ever so slightly to 155 mph by 8 a.m. but that really doesn't make much of a difference as to what's going to happen. 

Tropical storm force winds extended outward 125 miles from the center of Hurricane Milton, and that wind field is forecast to get larger today. That means it won't be all that long before tropical storm force winds and the start of storm surges will hit the Florida Gulf Coast. Those gusty, strong winds will probably be on the coast by early afternoon. 

Trouble is also brewing well ahead of Hurricane Milton.  

Ominously, there has already been reports of minor storm surge flooding along parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. So imagine how bad things will get when the hurricane arrives tonight. 

Outer rainbands and outflow storms from the hurricane are already moving into Florida, setting up a situation where tornadoes can develop.  A tornado warning was already in effect for a time after 7 a.m. today east of Fort Myers. 

As the rain bands become more forceful this afternoon, some of the thunderstorms will break up into individual supercells this afternoon, which have the potential to spin off tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

HEART OF THE STORM

The big trouble comes tonight, of course, as Milton is expected to crash ashore sometime around midnight, give or take.  

Everybody's talking about the storm surge, which makes sense because this would be the deadliest and most dangerous part of Hurricane Milton. 

Screen grab of video of what the Hurricane Ian storm surge
in Fort Myers Beach, Florida in 2022. Hurricane Milton's
storm surge is expected to be at least this bad, and will
hit in the dark of night, making it even more terrifying.

If - and this is a huge if - Hurricane Milton makes landfall south of Tampa, then the storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay would be not as dire as some forecast make it out to be. 

Still, it would be bad, with some eastern parts of the bay seeing 6 to as much as 12 feet of storm surge. But the potential is still there for up to 15 feet, so if you live in the Tampa Bay area and fled the hurricane, you made a very smart move. 

Even if the storm surge isn't as bad as the worst forecasts in Tampa Bay, that metro area is going to have a whole host of huge other problems caused by Hurricane Milton. I'll get into those in a bit. 

The worst storm surges will hit right where Milton comes ashore and points slightly south of that. That probably means Sarasota and the barrier islands near it.

Also, the bay that makes up Charlotte Harbor around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda is oriented in a similar fashion to Tampa Bay. Since Charlotte Harbor is near or a little south of the expected path of Milton, water will really pile up in this bay to form an incredible destructive storm surge. 

The bottom line is the current best guess for worst storm surge will run between Bradenton and Fort Myers. Though destructive storm surges are possible north and especially south of that range.

One odd note is that a few "lucky" places north of Milton's path might end up with intense east winds that actually pull water away from the shore. Hard to say exactly where, so don't count on it. But those few spots might actually see much below normal water levels at the coast. 

Strong hurricanes tend to wobble in their paths, so Hurricane Milton could still jog north into Tampa or south toward Punta Gorda. So we have no guarantees on who gets the worst storm surge. 

To give you an idea of how terrifying storm surges like this, click on this link to watch the storm surge with Hurricane Ian at Fort Myers Beach two years ago.  If you see the  image below, click on that to watch the video. When you do, notice the house washing away and getting flattened.  The storm surge with Hurricane Milton will be at least as bad, and will come in the dark of night. You can see why you can't survive something like this. 

HIGH WINDS

The expected peak winds with Hurricane Milton could be near 130 mph at landfall. The hurricane will race across the state overnight and Thursday, spreading hurricane force winds across central Florida all the way through the Atlantic coast. 

There's going to be huge power outages, massive tree damage and structural damage coast to coast in Florida. Many people will have no electricity for weeks. This includes heavily populated areas like Tampa, Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne. 

If current forecasts hold, Tampa will end up on the northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton. Due to a weather front impinging on the northern edge of Milton, the wind should be particularly fierce in the Tampa area. Mobile homes will be completely unsafe.  Roofs will blow off homes and commercial buildings. Trees will smash into many other homes. 

FLOODING

In addition to the particularly intense winds expected around Tampa, the rain with Hurricane Milton seems likely to be the most ferocious near Tampa. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center expects a foot or more of rain in and near Tampa in a short period of time that will cause, as they put it,  "widespread and catastrophic flooding in the Tampa area tonight."

That kind of rain can't drain will from the relatively flat terrain. And any storm surges would block that runoff from entering Tampa Bay. All this means that even homes in the Tampa metro area that technically are safe from storm surges will get flooded anyway, just due to the rain and wind. 

Elsewhere across central Florida, a good 8 to 12 inches of rain is in the forecast, so the flooding will be intense there, too. 

BOTTOM LINE

All of the above is what is expected out of Hurricane Milton. As always, there will be some adjustments, some surprises, perhaps a glimmer of good news and some tragedies. 

At this point, there isn't much anybody can do to stop this or prepare. People only  have a few hours left this morning to rush their preparations to completion. 

Hurricane Helene a couple weeks ago caused more than 230 deaths, the highest toll from a United States hurricane since Katrina in 2005.  I guess all we can hope for now is that enough people have gotten out of the way of Hurricane Milton so that we don't see a full repeat of Helene's grim legacy. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Gorgeous Late This Afternoon, Dangerous, Wintry Within A Few Hours

The cold front and line of snow squalls looked 
really impressive on satellite imagery late 
this afternoon. Hard to pick out Vermont in this photo
but the line was less than an hour from entering
northwestern New York at around 5:15 when
this shot was taken. 

 As expected, today was an absolutely lovely day by late March standards in Vermont, but also, as expected, trouble lurks pretty soon as showers quickly turn to dangerous snow squalls amid gusty winds and rapidly falling temperatures within a few hours from now.  

(For the record, I'm writing this at around 5 p.m. Wednesday).

In Burlington, the temperature hit 50 degrees for the first time this month. In most years, it gets into the 50s and even 60s in March.  Burlington missed out on a warm shot on March 22 that sent most other places in Vermont into the 50s. 

Today was Burlington's first day that reached 50 degrees since a record high of 56 degrees on February 16.

Now, winter is on our doorstep. 

As mentioned this morning an Arctic cold front is barreling in our direction. The National Weather Service is still predicting intense snow squalls, but there have been a few minor changes to the weather forecast.

This morning, I mentioned the possibility of a line of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder before the main show begins. That seems to be only sort of happening. I do see a few convective showers late this afternoon in northern New York heading into northwestern Vermont, but they don't look particularly impressive.

Convective showers are the type that come from tall, billowing clouds. You see them all the time in the summer. 

The actual squall line, though, does look impressive. As of 5 p.m., it was around Buffalo, New York and just about to head into Ottawa, Canada. Numerous videos on social media show near zero visibility in the snow squalls in southern Ontario. 

It's moving steadily eastward , and will cross into Vermont between about 8:30 p.m., give or take in the northwest corner of Vermont and leave the state sometime around midnight 

When this thing arrives, expect rain initially, but it will change to snow super fast. And it will come down super hard for awhile. And it will have gusty winds. 

One change in the forecast from this morning: They were saying  the squall would be most dramatic in western Vermont. Now, that's changed a bit. The latest forecast indicates it'll be wild enough in western Vermont, but the squall line will consolidate and intensify further in central and eastern parts of the state, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

Bottom line, you will not want to be on the roads tonight starting at around 8:30.  The snow will be briefly blinding. Road conditions will go from fine to awful in minutes.  

This won't last long in any one place, but the roads will probably stay pretty bad overnight amid those rapidly falling temperatures 

Thursday will be better, I suppose. The sun will come back out, but it will not feel at all like spring. Many northern areas will be really lucky to hit the freezing mark in the afternoon. This at a time of year when normal highs are well into the 40s. 

At least the cold snap will be brief. It'll start to turn warmer Friday, at least for a brief stay. But new storminess is due Friday into Sunday. 

I won't get into that now. I'll post about it tomorrow. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Snow Updates: Minor Adjustments To Messy Wednesday Forecast

The new forecast issued late this afternoon from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington is only slightly changed
from this morning. Maybe a little more in the Champlain Valley,
maybe a little less in eastern Vermont. 

 Just a quick Tuesday evening update to let you know tomorrow morning is going to suck in Vermont.

We're still on track to receive a burst of snow that will be heaviest during the morning commute. 

So: The first snowfall of the season hits right at the morning commute. What could go wrong?

If you can stay home tomorrow morning, do it. This isn't exactly a blockbuster storm, but the combination of wet snow (which is more slippery than the dry stuff of midwinter), inexperienced motorists in the snow, people without snow tires, and you have a recipe for a mess.

Also, ground temperatures are warm. Remember, summer in November just ended a few days ago. When you have that situation, snow falls on the road, partially melts due to the warm ground, then re-freezes into ice. With a little water on top. Which is as slippery as you can get. 

It looks like some warm air will sneak in aloft, possibly changing things to sleet and freezing rain in some spots, just to make things interesting.

Dry air aloft, and a bit of warming, could  change the snow to drizzle in the afternoon in the valleys, which would temporarily help the situation on the roads. But things will probably go back to light snow late in the day or the evening so that won't help. 

If anything, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has slightly increased the expected accumulations in the Champlain Valley. Their latest maps indicates maybe two to three inches of snow there. 

Accumulations might be a little less in eastern Vermont than earlier forecasts, due to the risk of mixed precipitation. In general, though, look for an accumulation of two to six inches for most of us.

More on this tomorrow morning