Vermont Drought Expanded Over The Past Week, To Nobody's Surprise

Drought (orange shading) covers mostly central
and eastern Vermont as of this week. The
rest of Vermont in yellow is regarded
as abnormally dry.

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, issued this morning, shows drought expanding here in Vermont, with those drought conditions more or less holding steady in the rest of the Northeast. 

Last week, 35 percent of Vermont was categorized as being under moderate drought, covering mostly the Connecticut River Valley and central Vermont.  

This week, 54 percent of the Green Mountain State is in drought. It has expanded into the central and southern Champlain Valley and a greater portion of the Northeast Kingdom than last week.

As of this morning, about 324,000 of Vermont's 648,000 or so residents are living in drought conditions.

All areas of Vermont not officially in drought are listed as "abnormally dry" which means they are on the verge of drought.

There's plenty of other evidence of drought in Vermont.  The top one meter layer of soil in much of Vermont is among the driest on record for this time of year. 

Lake Champlain is at its lowest level in decades for this time of year. The low level can increase algae blooms. But on the plus side, the low water can expose invasive aquatic plants and kill them, which would help the overall ecosystem. 

River levels across the state are remarkably, low, too. 

ELSEWHERE

Rivers in Vermont are quiet low due to drought, like
in the Missisquoi River shown here in Enosburg
Falls, Vermont this past Sunday. 

In New Hampshire, moderate drought conditions were about the same as last week, says the U.S. Drought Monitor,  covering all of that state except the extreme south.

 In New York, a new drought area appeared this week in parts of the eastern Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. 

The moderate drought grew more extensive in Maine, now extending much further inland from the coast. 

It now covers all of central and southern Maine, or just under two thirds of the state. Severe drought continues along much of the seacoast. 

FORECAST

As I mentioned this morning, the best rains for the next couple of days should hit northwest New York and sections of Maine. Both areas should receive at least three quarters of an inch of rain.

Here in Vermont, total rainfall for the next week should only be about 0.1 south to 0.3 inches north, with locally slightly higher amounts northwest and in the northern Green Mountains. That's well short of the inch of rain per week we'd like in normal times, and 1 to 2 inches per week we'd need to start getting out of the drought 

Almost all of the meager rain we're expecting in Vermont will come Friday and Friday night, with maybe a tiny bit more on Saturday.

Long range forecasts into the middle of September lean slightly toward a bit higher than normal rainfall around Vermont, but I'll believe it when I see it.  

Rainy, Mild March Vermont Day To Set Off A Bit Of A Flood Threat

Footprints and paw prints in last evening's snow, now
turned to melting slush as today's rainy thaw began
moving into the St. Albans, Vermont area this morning. 

 Welcome to the first truly rainy, mild day of spring, 2025 in Vermont. 

It will indeed rain most of the day statewide, and temperatures in many areas will warm to levels not seen since late December. 

Yes, rain and warm temperatures equals snow melt and a risk of flooding and ice jams. 

However, the conditions of the snow cover before the rains started, and the middling amount of rain in the forecast means this time around, flooding shouldn't be very extensive. 

 Ice jams are possible, of course but unless one forms in a very, very bad spot near a village or town along a river, we should be largely OK.

Knock on wood, there should only be a few scattered ice jams. Take it seriously though. f there is any kind of high water or jammed up ice, it's most likely tonight or tomorrow. 

Also, as we always know in early March, winter is NOT over so of course we'll need to deal with some of those issues coming up.

OK, the big picture is out of the way, let's get into the details:

TODAY

After a burst of snow and a little rain in northern Vermont last evening, things got quiet and warm-ish overnight. It was in the 30s to low 40s and western Vermont as of 6 a.m. but still a little below freezing east of the Green Mountains. 

Meanwhile, rain was moving in from the southwest, and should get through most of the Green Mountain State by mid to late morning. 

Sprinkles of rain have already made it into Vermont as of 7 a.m. but the main bands of it were still just approaching southwest parts of the state. 

There might briefly be a few patches of freezing rain at the start where it's cold in eastern Vermont, but that should resolve itself pretty quickly. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a special weather statement that warns of potential black ice, especially on bridges, overpasses and around curves through this morning's rush hour in central and eastern Vermont. 

There's even a couple of pockets of cold air left in parts of Rutland County, so it could get slick there, too, for a little while this morning. 

The bulk of the rain should come through during the day today and the first half of tonight. Rainfall amounts might be as little as a quarter inch in the far northern Champlain Valley to up to an inch in southern Vermont. 

If there were no snow and ice to melt, that amount of rain we expect is absolutely no big deal. Just a routine amount for any storm system. 

But there is snow and ice to melt. Plenty of it in some areas. Obviously, only some of it will melt in this episode. And especially in high elevations and in eastern Vermont it might take awhile for it to start melting. 

Meteorologists say the snow has to "ripen" first. That means the temperature of the snow cover has to rise enough so that it starts spewing water from melting.  By the time the snowpack "ripens" in areas with deeper snow especially, the bulk of the rain will be over. 

It will stay warm overnight. In fact, high temperatures today in the mid and upper 40s to near 50 probably won't be reached until we get toward evening. Readings will stay at those levels overnight and into Thursday morning. 

The air will have an oddly humid, springlike feel to it, too. Humid air melts snow much more effectively than dry air, so even after most of the rain is over, the snow in many areas will be melting pretty rapidly. 

FLOOD/JAM POTENTIAL

If we have any flooding or ice jams at all in this episode, they are most likely to  happen overnight and through Thursday. 

There is a lot of water in the snow pack. The National Weather Service estimates the amount of water coming out of the snow through melting tonight and Thursday would be the equivalent of 1.5 to two inches of rain in parts of central and southern Vermont. 

That might well be enough to make river levels rise enough to break up the thick ice covering parts of those rivers. The ice starts to flow downstream, hits an obstruction, so the ice just backs up behind that obstruction and voila! You have an ice jam.

These things form quickly, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep an eye on the river ice and be prepared to skedaddle if you see water backing up behind an ice jam.  You won't have all that much time to deal with it. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. But where any of those few ice jams form, it could be locally a very, very big problem. Any river from about the Winooski south in Vermont is at some risk of an ice jam or two. 

Even without ice jams, some rivers, like the Otter Creek, Mad River and Winooski, might get pretty high, and could peak just a little under minor flood stage during and just after this thaw.

In northern Vermont, where it will take longer for the snow to "ripen" only about the equivalent of an inch of rain will ooze out of those big snowbanks through melting. That reduces the chances of ice jams in northern Vermont. 

COLD RETURNS

It's only early March, so the cold will return, though not to the subzero levels we saw Monday morning.

The storm's cold front will come through Thursday afternoon with little precipitation but falling temperatures. Early afternoon will be balmy, and by the time the sun sets, you'll be starting to notice a  chill in the air. 

You'll need to watch it a bit Friday morning. By then, everything will have frozen back up again. Including any standing water left on untreated roads. Light snow showers will add to the back-to-winter scenario.

Snowfall won't amount to much. Most of us will see less than an inch, though the central and northern Green Mountains might pick up one to as much as four inches of new snow between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning. 

Friday itself will be blustery and cold with temperatures staying at or below freezing. It should stay below freezing all weekend, including during the days. Though banana belt towns in low elevation southern Vermont could poke into the mid 30s both Saturday and Sunday. 

Early guesses are the next week or so should be fairly mellow, with frequent chances of a little snow or even rain later in the week, but nothing heavy.  

Next week will be a bit changeable and unpredictable too. As is typical in March, Vermont will be right near the springtime battleground between mild air to the south and still-wintry air encompassing most of Canada. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm/Flood Update: The Worst Starts Now, But Some Good News

Rising waters along a creek in Fairfax, Vermont amid
drenching rains this afternoon. Flooding is still
likely overnight in Vermont, but it shouldn't be
nearly as bad as the one we had last December. 

 A soaking rain has drenched Vermont and much of the rest of New England pretty much all day, as expected. 

As of 5 p.m., that wasn't enough to touch off any flooding around here. At least not yet. 

But the flood threat has always been between early this evening and tomorrow morning. That's still the case. 

The good news is that although flooding looks inevitable to me, it won't be as bad as last December. 

The expected total amount of rainfall from this storm, between what has already fallen and what will come this evening, is a little bit less than the predictions we saw a couple days ago. Which of course is great news. 

Temperatures in northern Vermont have been cooler than forecast, which has slowed the snow melt. They'll briefly bump up this evening well into the 40s before crashing downward later on. 

The dry ground from an autumn of drought has been able to absorb a lot of today's rain. Now things are finally saturated, and small streams and creeks are rising. 

But with stream flows low to start, it'll take quite a bit to get things flooding. They will flood, but unless a big surprise hits with the rain tonight, this shouldn't be anything cataclysmic. This time, anyway.

Since about 99.999999 percent of all Vermonters have at least a hint of PTSD from the frequent big floods we've had over the past couple of years, I know a flood watch gets the heart racing. And not in a good way. 

So people have been nervous about this storm. As always with this kind of thing, channel that nervousness into deep breaths and common sense. Especially since we'll need to be careful with tonight's flood threat, even though we know this probably won't turn out to be a catastrophe. 

You know the drill. Don't drive through flood water. If the road is closed, turn around and find another way to get where you're going. That kind of thing.

THIS EVENING

I supposed there was sort of a lull in the rainfall late this afternoon, but it wasn't much of one, certainly less of a quiet period than expected.  Most of us have had somewhere close to an inch of rain through 5 p.m., give or take. 

A new round of heavier rain was moving into Vermont from the southwest as of 5 p.m. and that will be our big drencher this evening.  We're probably in for another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, plus the snow melt. Which is why the flood watch is still up. 

Most rivers, if they flood, will reach minor flood stage, which is why we don't expect big time destruction once again in those towns and cities in the flood plains. The Otter Creek in Rutland County still looks like it might be the most troublesome one of the bunch. It might get pretty close to homes in Rutland and Center Rutland as it reaches moderate flood stage. 

I do anticipate some trouble with local washouts on back roads and maybe sone culvert trouble here and there. We still expect some road closures tomorrow morning on low lying roads.

Especially once we get past midnight, temperatures are still expected to crash, as we've said in previous forecasts.  We won't get much snow out of it, maybe one to as much as three inches in the mountains 

Areas near Lake Ontario and the western Adirondacks are in for another big lake affect snowstorm tomorrow, but those will diminish to light snow showers and flurries by the time they reach Vermont. It might be good for another inch or two of semi-replacement snow up in the ski areas. 

Thursday will also be blustery and chilly with winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 

But after this oddly wet storm, we'll be back to business as usual for December. A couple of weak systems will spread a little light snow, rain or schmutz across Vermont early next week. After a chilly Friday and Saturday, we'll become a little on the warm side for December once again. 

 

Tuesday Evening Flood Forecast Update

The flooding Lamoille River crashes its way through trees
in Jeffersonville, Vermont amid snow showers on
December 19, 2023. We might see similar scenes
by Thursday, though the flooding is not expected
to be quite as bad as last December. 

The first shower of our very wet New England storm were headed into the region late Tuesday afternoon as we brace for our latest flood event. 

Thankfully, fingers crossed anyway, this still doesn't look as bad as the floods in the Julys of 2023 and 2024 or even the one in December, 2023.  But I do expect at least a little damage out of this one.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us an initial wave or rather heavy rain will come through tomorrow morning, both before and after dawn.

 That could be enough to touch off some minor flooding, and ponding of water on roads, which would be a hazard on the highways.

During the morning commute that heavy rain will make the highways a bit of a hydroplane hell, so you'll want to slow it down yet again as you head to work.

By mid-morning or so, you'll think we're getting a nice break from the threatening weather forecast. The rain will noticeably lighten up, even stop at times. It won't be over, though. 

That will last until mid to late afternoon as temperatures keep warming up and melting that snow from the mid and high elevations. 

Then it will pour again, which is when we'll have to start worrying about the flooding. The drive home will be another hydroplane hell, with the added bonus of rising small creeks and streams, perhaps some washouts starting on the edges of the dirt roads, that kind of thing.

I suspect some gravel roads might be more susceptible to damage than you'd expect from the size storm we're about to get. The soil is probably still a bit soft and loose on roads that were just repaired after the floods we had just five months ago. So erosion could be a problem on steep hills.

Almost all the downpours in the second round of rain will come after dark, when it's hard to see flooding ahead of you. This type of storm tends to send marshy areas alongside low spots on Vermont roads and highways expanding onto the pavement. Hit the water in those instances and  you can wreck

Or stall in the water.

Overnight the main rivers will start to rise quickly. Most rivers in Vermont will reach at least minor flood stage or come close to it. That's especially true in southern and central Vermont. But it will happen everywhere.

Overall, the amount of rain we're expecting and the amount of snow melt that will occur is still pretty much in line with earlier forecasts

RIVER CRESTS 

Following is a sampling of the latest flood crest predictions on several rivers in Vermont.

 Note the forecasts are subject to change now through the time flooding  There's a possibility - but no guarantee - this could still get a little worse yet. 

Passumpsic River at Passumpsic. It should just barely reach minor flood stage, based on current forecasts.

Otter Creek at Center Rutland: 11.8 feet, just shy of the 12 food major flood stage. This could result in some flooding around homes on Dorr Drive and Park Street in Rutland and near Route 4 in Center Rutland.

Mad River at Moretown, 10.8 feet, which is a wee bit below the 11-foot moderate flood stage. At this level, water could easily reach Route 100 in Moretown and started getting onto Route 100B in the same town.

Winooski River at Montpelier, 10.3 feet. which is just shy of minor flood stage. Downtown Montpelier looks safe from this one, but if you're a store owner downtown, I'd get stuff out of the basement ahead of the storm, just to be on the safe side.

Winooski River at Essex Junction. 14.5 feet. that's just a half foot below moderate flood stage. The crest probably won't come until midmorning Thursday. That'll be enough to cover and close North Williston Road and maybe part of Route 2 in Jonesville. Part of Bridge Street and Volunteers Green in Richmond stand a decent chance of going under water, too.

Lamoille River at Johnson, 13.1 feet, minor flood stage. If the water stays below 16.5 feet, buildings in Johnson should be safe, but you might not be able to get through the area around the Wrong Way Bridge near Route 15 in Cambridge.

White River at West Hartford. Should crest near the minor flood level of 16 feet Thursday morning.

Walloomsac River, North Bennington: 9.8 feet crest, moderate flood stage. 

RAIN ENDS COLD

As these rivers are rising and approaching their crests, temperatures will crash sharply with a cold front. Rain will change to snow, but that won't amount to much. But all that water on the roads will freeze, so even spots that haven't flooded will be treacherous. 

So yeah, another annoying commute on Thursday morning. The lower reaches of the main rivers won't crest until the morning or even early afternoon Thursday, so keep on top of those road closures. There should be at least a few of 'em.

Overall, this whole episode should be less bad than in a very similar storm and flood last December.  Rivers are much lower, and soil moisture is much lower than last year, so we have room for water to soak in.

This storm will also move more quickly than the one in December, 2023.  That means it will have less time to unleash its downpours on New England. Shorter downpours, smaller floods, is the hope. 

I still don't see any big storms on the horizon after we get this week's mess out of our hair. We have a relatively cold shot of air Thursday through Saturday but nothing exceptional for mid-December.

Little systems and milder temperatures next week give us the the threat of light mixed precipitation occasionally.  

Now The Fun Begins: Vermont Lawmakers Gov Wrangle Over Flood Legislation

The Vermont Legislature is working on a bill that backers hope will limit the kind of flood destruction the Green Mountain State saw last year. 

But the bill's future is iffy. 

As VTDigger tells us, the Vermont Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee voted 5-0 last month on S.213, a bill that require a state permit to build in river corridors.  

Sounds simple, right? If we don't construct new buildings where rivers flood, we won't have new structures to see damage from said flood. 

North Branch of the Winooski River in downtown 
Montpelier, Vermont on July 10, 2023. Photo was
taken less than three hours before the river inundated
the downtown, causing many millions of dollars
in property damage. Now, the Vermont legislature
is working on ways to boost flood resiliency 
in the age of climate change. 

As always, though, it's more complicated than that. 

There's more than just construction at stake in the legislation. As VTDigger explains:

"It would require the state to manage for a net gain of wetland acreage, and it would install measures ti improve dam safety, such as strengthening oversight and setting up funding mechanisms for emergency and nonemergency dam maintenance and removal."

Then there's process. S.213 needs to go through more committees then get a vote in the entire Senate. Plus, reports are, Gov. Phil Scott is not a big fan of this legislation.   

The big sticking point will probably be opposition to how the bill would shift management of development near waterways from municipalities to the state. That's where Gov. Scott's distaste for the legislation comes up

Scott said the bill would shift "responsibilities for certain types of land use regulation from Vermont municipalities to (the Agency of Natural Resources) that will put Vermonters in jeopardy of violating laws they don't even know exist."

Scott likes local control, and I see his point. People naturally chafe under state and federal regulation, and seem to trust the local leaders they run into at the the grocery or hardware store. 

But do flood-prone Vermont cities and towns have the wherewithal to manage development in and near flood plains, on top of trying to recover from the disasters that befell them last summer, and to a lesser extent in December?

VTDigger also reports people in the ANR believe they don't have the bandwidth and personnel to take on all these new responsibilities. 

Plus, ANR officials worry about environmental justice. Roughly a third of manufactured home parts in the state have a least some land in floodplains. People without resources would have trouble affording and sifting through the permit process.

Then again, people without resources would have trouble affording and sifting through the process of experiencing and recovering from a flood. 

The bottom line is the backers of the legislation are right that we need to take bold action to build every defense we can against the inevitable next big flood, made ever more possible with climate change. 

But that bold action is daunting when faced with the scope of the problem. Just that one flood last summer damaged around 4,000 Vermont homes and about 800 businesses. We're still managing the after effects of that, and at the same time we need to carefully plan for the next flood or storm?

Vermonters can walk and chew gum at the same time, but they can't also juggle flaming chainsaws, write the next Great American Novel, cure cancer and send people to Mars while walking and chewing that gum. 

This wrangling is a cautionary tale for states in the rest of the United States that will need to scramble to make new rules to build resilience against the effects of climate change.  Depending on where you are, these risks include but are not limited to more intense hurricanes, sea level rise, worse heat waves, wildfires, pollution and more unpredictable severe weather events. 

Vermont has a reputation for a relative level of political civility.  Sure, we have plenty of spats among elected officials, but things aren't nearly as weird and fraught as in other states. Hi there, Florida and Texas! 

We'll probably work out some compromises with the proposed flood legislation. Or, if Scott vetoes the bill, the heavily Democratic legislature might override it.   

Whether or not this all gets resolved, we'll still have plenty more legislative battles in Vermont and pretty much everywhere else as we reckon what to do with climate change.

 

Scenes From A Vermont Flood, In Photos And Video

The Lamoille River blasting through Fairfax Falls
near Cambridge, Vermont on December 19

 It's odd to see a serious flood in Vermont in the early winter. 

This  year, though, it happened.  Weather geek that I am, I documented it with photos and video. 

Photos are first, and below those are two videos. One shows the Winooski river in various spots between Richmond and Winooski. The other shows the Lamoille River between Cambridge and Milton. 

Severe flooding in Vermont is obviously unwanted. Especially during the Christmas season. 

I don't want to say anything positive about the disaster. Except that, since we had to endure it, there was an almost stark, terrible beauty about it. 

The landscape was on the edge of winter. But there was water everywhere. The sounds and odor of rushing, flooding river water is what we expect during the spring thaw, or after extreme summer storms, or while an errant late summer or early autumn tropical storm passes through Vermont. 

Somber December colors lit up with glimpses of sun
and blue skies during this week's flooding. This
is at submerged North Williston Road between
Essex and Williston, Vermont. 

This time, it hit while Vermont should have been freezing up and whitening up with snow.  

The flood hit just a few days before the winter solstice, the darkest time of year. 

The flood went on to make things even darker. Even as glimpses of sun and snow flurries mixed in with the images of high water. 

It was a strange disaster, but I guess in the age of climate change, we now have to expect more and more weather weirdness. 

Only a boat would have gone the speed limit of 35
mph on North Williston Road during the December 18-19 flood.

 

The Winooski River blasts past buildings in Winooski,
Vermont, as seen from the Chase Mill in Burlington on
December 19, 2023   

The Lamoille River comes perilously close to a house
in Fairfax, Vermont during snow showers on Dec 19, 2023.    

The Lamoille River blocking access to the "Wrong Way Bridge"
area of Route 15 in Cambridge, Vermont while damaging
properties on December 19 2023.     

TWO VIDEOS

First video shows flooding along the Winooski River at various locations between Richmond and Williston, Vermont. Click on this link to view the video, or if you see the image below:

The second video also shows serious flooding, this time along the Lamoille River between Cambridge and Milton, Vermont. Again click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Monday Evening Vermont Flood Update: Destruction To Continue Overnight; Towns Isolated

North Branch of the Winooski River rising rapidly
toward State Street in Montpelier late Monday 
afternoon amid continued downpours. 

 Back now at 7 pm. from my Vermont flood tour, and, as everybody knows, it's nasty out there. 

So far, we have one unconfirmed fatality in Londonderry, dozens of roads under water or washed out, towns devastated, and more to come.  

The two biggest challenges overnight will be main stem river flooding, and likely renewed flash flooding in northern Vermont. 

Some examples: The Winooski River at Essex Junction is now forecast to crest tomorrow at 21.6 feet, which would be the fifth highest on record. The same river in Montpelier is forecast to crest at 19.3 feet, which would be the second highest on record and higher than during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

I was in Montpelier today and the Winooski was rising rapidly, and the downtown was just as rapidly becoming a ghost town.  Most business were closed, except the hardware and grocery store.  I was surprised by how many businesses hadn't moved merchandise from lower shelves on sales floors. Several businesses had sand bags bunched up against doors. 

Along Interstate 89 between Montpelier and Middlesex, water cascaded off the roadside ledges in several areas, sometimes spewing water onto the pavement. 

Further south, the expected crest on the Otter Creek in Center Rutland is 14 feet, also the second highest on record. Similar high crests are expected along the Lamoille River. 

MORE FLASH FLOODS?

A secondary threat is new flash flooding in northern Vermont.  Rainfall rates have decreased some, but heavy rain is expected over northwestern Vermont possibly until about dawn.  

The Champlain Valley from Burlington north has largely escaped the flooding, but this could change overnight. I'd especially keep my eye on Franklin County overnight. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said there is an 80 percent chance of a once in 100 year rain event around St Albans. A forecast of  80 percent chance of such an occurrence is almost unheard of. 

It's too soon to assess how much damage has been done, since some towns are still mostly inaccessible. This will be on par with 2011's Tropical Storm Irene.  Those of you who lived through that know how long it took to get past and rebuild from the that.  

A barn starts to take on water in Jonesville, Vermont
late Monday afternoon as the nearby Winooski River
rose rapidly toward a near-record flood crest. 

It was still raining in most of Vermont as of 7 p.m. Already, some of the totals are just incredible. Mount Holly reported 8.66 inches. Tyson came in with 8.4 inches. Several towns, including Braintree, Ludlow, Middlesex and Worcester, had more than six inches. 

Some of the towns that had the most rain today, like Killington, Hardwick and Worcester, already had flash floods last Friday. 

When you get up tomorrow, expect a lot of travel disruptions, either because roads are under water or washed out. I suspect Interstates 89 and 91 will be OK or mostly so, but it''s a roll of the dice for everyone else. 

I'll start talking about what's next in some of tomorrow's post, but I can't handle that tonight. 

One thing I will telegraph is that the danger of flash flooding and more damage doesn't end with the departure of this storm tomorrow.

We're still stuck in the same weather pattern that will bring almost daily chances of showers and storms. Some with heavy rain. We won' have a repeat of the nightmare we went through today.

But as we try to patch things up, our work might be undone in some places by new, localized flash flooding. 

Life-Threatening Floods Loom In Vermont/Northeast Later Today Through Monday

National Weather Service forecast of rainfall through
8 a.m. Tuesday. This is subject to change. Also, this 
map doesn't pick up potential pockets of 5 to 6
inches of rain in this event. 

I'm very worried, frankly.

All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011.  Take this one very seriously. 

Overall, we're expecting two to four inches of rain, with local amounts five inches or higher, pretty much statewide. This is falling on saturated soil, with some areas already  having seen flash flooding. 

 This won't be the local flash floods that have been pestering us for days and causing damage. This could well be a memorable, dangerous statewide event.  

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington wasn't mincing words in their forecast discussion Sunday morning:

"Sections of Vermont and northern New York are under risk for flash flooding on scale that has not been seen in many years. Almost every plausible impact is on the table, from urban flash flooding, excessive run-off contributing to sharp river rises and flooding across small creeks and even across main stem rivers. Washouts, damage to culverts and potential mudslides in steep terrain are likely."

Such hair on fire language is rare from the National Weather Service, so when you see them doing that, it's really time to get nervous. 

Meanwhile, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont, along with the rest of western New England, eastern New York and Pennsylvania and New Jersey  under a moderate risk of flash floods for later today and tonight. 

"Moderate risk" doesn't sound all that bad, but it is. It's a pretty rare designation for this neck of the woods and means flash flooding is all but inevitable and in some places it will be significant. 

The moderate risk stays in effect in all of Vermont and western New Hampshire all day Monday into Monday night. It's really rare to have the same spot be under a moderate risk on two consecutive days. All the more reason to worry. 

I've been "wish casting," which means I'm hoping for a weather outcome better than the official forecasts. You know, drizzle and fog instead of flash floods, that sort of thing. I suppose we can still hope for a better outcome than what's predicted, and that still might happen. 

But it's not looking great.

FORECAST PARTICULARS

This event will start out like the one we had on Friday. 

Thunderstorms will blossom across Vermont and surrounding areas this afternoon.  Some places in these initial hours might not get much rain at all. Other places will see torrential rains and flash floods, much like we saw around Killington and Worcester on Friday. 

We don't know in advance what towns will get hit today. But problems are most likely in and near the Green Mountains. Especially in areas that saw those torrents on Friday. 

These storms will blend into an area-wide zone of heavy rain this evening and that will continue overnight. That's when the worst flooding starts. 

In some respects, this is more dangerous than the devastating Hurricane Irene in 2011. On that occasion, most of the flash floods happened during the day. Daytime flash floods are easier to react to, and get out of the way. 

At night, you can't see so much, so people aren't as aware they're in danger.  They might be sleeping in their homes, unaware water is rising around them or a mudslide is headed their way. 

On the roads, it's even worse. During the day, it's usually pretty easy to figure out the road in front of you is flooded and/or washed away.  At night, you're cruising along, and you don't see the high water, or missing road or bridge until it's too late, and you plunge in.

That's why I worry somebody might get killed in this flooding. I think we're all hoping my worry comes to naught. 

The heavy rain will continue into Monday morning.  As the morning goes on, the rain might tend to dwindle some. But don't let your guard down. 

Two reasons for that:

The first if the main rivers will be rising rapidly.  Current USGS forecast call for minor to moderate flooding along the bigger rivers, but I suspect it could be worse than that, given the amount of rain headed our way. 

Another problem is torrential thunderstorms could re-blossom Monday afternoon, renewing and intensifying the flash flood threat. 

It's hard to say who's getting the most rain out of this, as it will be pretty variable. Some towns will really get bullseyed.

Current forecasts have southwestern Vermont and the Green Mountains with the most, with four to five inches. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is also especially worried about the east slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains on Monday. 

By the way, this might not necessarily be over by Tuesday. We're stuck in the same general weather pattern we've been in. Locally heavy rain, and potential flash floods could get going again later in the week. We'll have to keep an eye on that, too.

SAFETY TIPS

Have several ways to receive weather warnings.  Weather radios are great. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is awesome. Click on this link as a handy way to get to them. Trusted meteorologists at Vermont television and radio stations are excellent resources, too. 

Social media is not a great source to get warnings. Social media can be inaccurate, or the warnings you see there might be old, expired, or have changed since they were posted. 

If you are in a safe place overnight tonight, I suggest you don't drive anywhere, because of the before-mentioned difficulty in seeing floods and washouts in front of you. 

If your basement is prone to flooding, move items out this morning.  It's dangerous to go into a flooded basement to retrieve stuff because walls or items can collapse, which could trap you. 

 If you are in a flood-prone area, or near steep slopes, have several ways to receive flash flood or other warnings. If emergency services knock on your door and tell you to evacuate, do it immediately.  It won't hurt to prepare a "to go" bag this morning so you can grab it and go. The best "to go" bag is probably actually a waterproof bin 

The "to go" bag or bin should include important papers, medication, changes of clothes, wallet, items that are important to you, changes of clothes, flashlights and food and water.  Include "comfort items" for little kids, such as a favorite teddy bear. Have a plan to grab your pets in a hurry, too. 

Have a plan on where to go. If you have to evacuate, what's the best route to safety? Is there a Plan B route? Think about that now, before it starts raining. 

Also, head off to an ATM this morning and grab some cash, if possible. It's better to have cash on hand rather than a credit or debit card for sudden expenses. Especially if there are power troubles.

If you have possessions or property in flood plains of Vermont rivers, and if you have the ability, move them to higher ground this morning. This includes livestock, by the way. 

During the flood, avoid walking through flowing water, and watch out for fallen power lines or leaking propane tanks.  Don't stand on the edge of washouts, as there might be nothing beneath the thin layer of dirt or asphalt you're standing on.  Also, stay away from other hazards, such as shifting ground in mudslide zones, tottering trees or damaged buildings. 

SUMMARY

As far as I'm concerned, this is an emergency, and people are probably going to need help. This might not be at the level of Irene, but it's still likely to turn into a a really, really big deal.  Let's also hope everybody stays safe.  This is a potentially life threatening situation. We don't need deaths to make this whole thing even worse.

Of course, the National Weather Service and other reputable meteorologists are watching this thing incredibly closely.  They know what they're doing, so pay attention to what they're saying.  

The Maine Ice Disk Is Back!

The Westbrook, Maine ice disc is back on the Presumpscot
River. A similar ice disc caused a stir three years ago. 

 The famous, and very cool ice disk in a Maine river appears to be back.  

Officials in Westbrook, Maine Tuesday posted photos on Facebook of a thin disk of ice forming on the Presumpscot River during the cold snap that has afflicted New England, reports the Portland Press Herald. 

A large ice disc formed in the river at downtown Westbrook in January 2019, capturing international attention.

Ice disks, which are fairly rarely seen, result from a combination of river currents and circulations beneath the ice. As river ice starts to spin at these locations, they are shaped by other chunks of ice into perfect spheres.

The Westbrook disc in 2019, and the one forming now are larger than most ice disks.   The formation in 2019 also lasted an unusually long time - two weeks.  It captured international attention and became a tourist attraction, which boosted usually slow winter business in downtown Westbrook, the Press Herald noted. 

It's unclear how long the new Westbrook ice disc will last. It depends on whether there are thaws, or deeper freezes, or fluctuations in the levels of the Presumpscot River. 

As of Wednesday morning, the City of Westbrook reported in its Facebook page that the disc was still there, but had at least temporarily stopped rotating as a cold overnight apparently froze it to surrounding ice. 

Ice discs have been observed since at least the late 1800s.  They have been seen in Vermont from time to time, mostly recently on the Browns River in Jericho last winter.