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| National Weather Service forecast of rainfall through 8 a.m. Tuesday. This is subject to change. Also, this map doesn't pick up potential pockets of 5 to 6 inches of rain in this event. |
All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011. Take this one very seriously.
Overall, we're expecting two to four inches of rain, with local amounts five inches or higher, pretty much statewide. This is falling on saturated soil, with some areas already having seen flash flooding.
This won't be the local flash floods that have been pestering us for days and causing damage. This could well be a memorable, dangerous statewide event.
The National Weather Service office in South Burlington wasn't mincing words in their forecast discussion Sunday morning:
"Sections of Vermont and northern New York are under risk for flash flooding on scale that has not been seen in many years. Almost every plausible impact is on the table, from urban flash flooding, excessive run-off contributing to sharp river rises and flooding across small creeks and even across main stem rivers. Washouts, damage to culverts and potential mudslides in steep terrain are likely."
Such hair on fire language is rare from the National Weather Service, so when you see them doing that, it's really time to get nervous.
Meanwhile, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont, along with the rest of western New England, eastern New York and Pennsylvania and New Jersey under a moderate risk of flash floods for later today and tonight.
"Moderate risk" doesn't sound all that bad, but it is. It's a pretty rare designation for this neck of the woods and means flash flooding is all but inevitable and in some places it will be significant.
The moderate risk stays in effect in all of Vermont and western New Hampshire all day Monday into Monday night. It's really rare to have the same spot be under a moderate risk on two consecutive days. All the more reason to worry.
I've been "wish casting," which means I'm hoping for a weather outcome better than the official forecasts. You know, drizzle and fog instead of flash floods, that sort of thing. I suppose we can still hope for a better outcome than what's predicted, and that still might happen.
But it's not looking great.
FORECAST PARTICULARS
This event will start out like the one we had on Friday.
Thunderstorms will blossom across Vermont and surrounding areas this afternoon. Some places in these initial hours might not get much rain at all. Other places will see torrential rains and flash floods, much like we saw around Killington and Worcester on Friday.
We don't know in advance what towns will get hit today. But problems are most likely in and near the Green Mountains. Especially in areas that saw those torrents on Friday.
These storms will blend into an area-wide zone of heavy rain this evening and that will continue overnight. That's when the worst flooding starts.
In some respects, this is more dangerous than the devastating Hurricane Irene in 2011. On that occasion, most of the flash floods happened during the day. Daytime flash floods are easier to react to, and get out of the way.
At night, you can't see so much, so people aren't as aware they're in danger. They might be sleeping in their homes, unaware water is rising around them or a mudslide is headed their way.
On the roads, it's even worse. During the day, it's usually pretty easy to figure out the road in front of you is flooded and/or washed away. At night, you're cruising along, and you don't see the high water, or missing road or bridge until it's too late, and you plunge in.
That's why I worry somebody might get killed in this flooding. I think we're all hoping my worry comes to naught.
The heavy rain will continue into Monday morning. As the morning goes on, the rain might tend to dwindle some. But don't let your guard down.
Two reasons for that:
The first if the main rivers will be rising rapidly. Current USGS forecast call for minor to moderate flooding along the bigger rivers, but I suspect it could be worse than that, given the amount of rain headed our way.
Another problem is torrential thunderstorms could re-blossom Monday afternoon, renewing and intensifying the flash flood threat.
It's hard to say who's getting the most rain out of this, as it will be pretty variable. Some towns will really get bullseyed.
Current forecasts have southwestern Vermont and the Green Mountains with the most, with four to five inches. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is also especially worried about the east slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains on Monday.
By the way, this might not necessarily be over by Tuesday. We're stuck in the same general weather pattern we've been in. Locally heavy rain, and potential flash floods could get going again later in the week. We'll have to keep an eye on that, too.
SAFETY TIPS
Have several ways to receive weather warnings. Weather radios are great. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is awesome. Click on this link as a handy way to get to them. Trusted meteorologists at Vermont television and radio stations are excellent resources, too.
Social media is not a great source to get warnings. Social media can be inaccurate, or the warnings you see there might be old, expired, or have changed since they were posted.
If you are in a safe place overnight tonight, I suggest you don't drive anywhere, because of the before-mentioned difficulty in seeing floods and washouts in front of you.
If your basement is prone to flooding, move items out this morning. It's dangerous to go into a flooded basement to retrieve stuff because walls or items can collapse, which could trap you.
If you are in a flood-prone area, or near steep slopes, have several ways to receive flash flood or other warnings. If emergency services knock on your door and tell you to evacuate, do it immediately. It won't hurt to prepare a "to go" bag this morning so you can grab it and go. The best "to go" bag is probably actually a waterproof bin
The "to go" bag or bin should include important papers, medication, changes of clothes, wallet, items that are important to you, changes of clothes, flashlights and food and water. Include "comfort items" for little kids, such as a favorite teddy bear. Have a plan to grab your pets in a hurry, too.
Have a plan on where to go. If you have to evacuate, what's the best route to safety? Is there a Plan B route? Think about that now, before it starts raining.
Also, head off to an ATM this morning and grab some cash, if possible. It's better to have cash on hand rather than a credit or debit card for sudden expenses. Especially if there are power troubles.
If you have possessions or property in flood plains of Vermont rivers, and if you have the ability, move them to higher ground this morning. This includes livestock, by the way.
During the flood, avoid walking through flowing water, and watch out for fallen power lines or leaking propane tanks. Don't stand on the edge of washouts, as there might be nothing beneath the thin layer of dirt or asphalt you're standing on. Also, stay away from other hazards, such as shifting ground in mudslide zones, tottering trees or damaged buildings.
SUMMARY
As far as I'm concerned, this is an emergency, and people are probably going to need help. This might not be at the level of Irene, but it's still likely to turn into a a really, really big deal. Let's also hope everybody stays safe. This is a potentially life threatening situation. We don't need deaths to make this whole thing even worse.
Of course, the National Weather Service and other reputable meteorologists are watching this thing incredibly closely. They know what they're doing, so pay attention to what they're saying.
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