Well, we got through this morning's rain without too much trouble here in Vermont, but unfortunately, the fun is just beginning.
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| NOAA says area inside the pink cloud is at the greatest risk for local flash floods this afternoon and evening. Notice Vermont is entirely within the pink cloud. |
As advertised, we're in for another afternoon and evening of flash flood risk, and the storms that might cause these issues were just firing up as of 12:30 p.m.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center put out an update at noon, stating that the places the highest risk of flash floods over western New England, including all of Vermont and most of New Hampshire.
As of noon, conditions were becoming more and more favorable for torrential downpours. The intensity and size of the small scale downpours we saw on radar in the noon hour will keep expanding. Sunshine in many areas between the developing storms is adding to the instability in the air, which will help sustain the storms.
Some will form into somewhat larger, organized clusters, and that's where you'll find the most trouble today. Too bad we don't yet know in advance who the lucky devils are who get these "larger, organized clusters." Or, the scientific term I came up for these, "fuster clucks."
Most, but not all of the developing storms seem like they are moving, and not lingering over one spot, at least for the most part. But their movement is painfully slow, and that state of affairs should continue through the afternoon and early evening.
I've already seen one small, but heavy downpour on the Champlain Islands about halfway between Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York pretty much sit there for about an hour as of this writing. Were that to happen over areas already slammed by flash floods, we'd be having some real issues now. That's the risk we might be facing through this evening.
Some favored locations might end up with two or three or even a little more inches of rain today. That won't be everybody, as most of us will see less. A few of us might see hardly any additional rain at all.
But you know the drill. Any hilly area seeing that kind of heavy rainfall in a short time will have problems, given how wet the soil is.
Consider this: Sunday evening, a thunderstorm dumped two to three inches of rain on Richmond and Bolton. The road damage from the resulting flash floods was very impressive. It seemed almost every dirt road in Richmond sustained at least a little damage, if not a total washout.
Had soil conditions not been so soggy, I'm sure the damage there would have been much less from Sunday's storms.
I'm not suggesting it'll necessarily be Richmond under the gun today, but it could be any other town near the Green Mountains or Taconics.
With today's rains, main rivers shouldn't flood again, but they will remain high, turbulent and muddy for this time of year.
There's still some risk that besides the flash flooding, a few storms could become severe, too. Though not widespread, a couple of the storms could produce damaging winds. So we'll have to watch out for scattered tree damage and power outage issues today, too.
But the main risk is still flash flooding. I'm still thinking things could get as bad as they were Sunday evening, when we had several reports of flash flooding. This is always luck of the draw, so we still don't know who is under the gun this afternoon and how many people that involves.
Today is still looking like the last flash flood threat in Vermont for awhile. We've basically been under the gun since the month opened, so it will be wonderful to get this out of our hair.
Just stay weather aware through this evening. If you receive a flash flood warning in your area, make sure to skedaddle immediately if you are in a flood prone spot.
And don't drive over flooded roads. Vermont has been incredibly lucky through all these flash floods in which nobody has died in their cars. Let's keep it that way. Vehicles are the most common place for deaths in flash floods. Lest
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