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| Killington Police released this photo of crews trying to clear mud from Route 4 in Killington after Friday's flash floods and mud slides. |
The whole state, along with much of the Northeast, looks like it might be under the gun by the start of the week, too.
More on that in a bit, but let's summarize yesterday.
As is the case with most flash flood events in Vermont, most of the Green Mountain State is unscathed. But where the floods hit, they really hit.
From what I can tell, the bad stuff is mostly from near Killington and Bridgewater up the east side of the Green Mountains into Orange County. And part of Washington County near Worcester.
Near Worcester, an intense thunderstorm developed around noon, causing wind and flood damage as it made its way northward through the Northeast Kingdom.
Right after that, a string of what appeared to be torrential, nearly stationary thunderstorms set up along the spine and eastern slopes of the Greens in Rutland and Windsor counties. The storms then spread northward up through Bethel and beyond, once again affecting the flood-prone Worcester area.
The storms had intense rains, especially near Killington. From the looks of things, four to as much as six inches of rain probably fell on those steep slopes in three hours or less.
Those steep slopes are an especially bad area for such intense rain to fall. It just sends torrents of fast flowing water roaring down the slopes onto the roads in the valleys below.
As noted yesterday, a mud slide closed Route 4 in Killington. The town's police department said debris at the mud slide site was up to 20 feet deep, and construction crews would stay overnight removing, mud, rocks and trees from the highway.
The flooding also closed a part of busy Route 100 in Bridgewater and Route 107 around Bethel. Those two roads have since reopened. I understand Route 4 is open via a detour, but I'm sure there's traffic delays in through there.
All the reports aren't in yet, but I'm sure towns like Killington, Bridgewater, Bethel and Pittsfield suffered serious damage to their back roads.
A lot of gravel roads in and around Worcester are trashed, too.
If you weren't under these lines of storms, you're wondering what all the fuss is about. Burlington, for instance, reported just 0.04 inches of rain Friday, and by the end of today, will be an inch below normal for rainfall so far in July.
MORE DANGER AHEAD
Burlington is an exception, though, and the soil has gotten pretty saturated in most of the Green Mountain State.
Today will remain humid, but thunderstorms are forecast to be pretty few and far between. But any that does form will probably move slowly and dump heavy rains. That won't be much of a problem unless those storms today set up shop over areas hit by Friday's flash flooding.
If you live in a spot that got hit hard Friday, pay attention in case there are any new warnings this afternoon. Again, though, almost all of us will be fine.
The real problems start Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.
The next disturbance in this wet pattern will swoop into the eastern Great Lakes then kind of just drift northward into southern Ontario and Quebec.
This system's orientation will pull basically a river of very wet, warm air off the Atlantic Ocean and funnel it into the Northeast. Especially New York and western New England, as it looks now.
The rainfall with this will most likely be much more widespread than the local stuff we've seen over the past two weeks.
The forecast could change, but at this point most of us are looking at two to four inches of rain between Sunday afternoon and Monday night. Some spots will probably get more than that. It's still too soon to tell where exactly the heaviest rain might set up. I'm betting, though, the National Weather Service will issue another flood watch for later Sunday and Monday.
This is enough to create a flood threat just about anywhere in Vermont, included the "dry" patches. But the areas that have already seen some flash floods are in particular jeopardy.
On top of that, the main rivers could end up flooding. The patchwork of heavy rains we've had hasn't been enough to cause larger rivers like Otter Creek or the Winooski, Lamoille or Missisquoi River to flood.
Given the more widespread nature of the rain that's predicted, that could change. I'm not saying all rivers will flood, but we'll have to watch out for that risk.
This weather set up on Sunday and Monday looks dangerous to me, if it comes to pass.
The worst case scenario would be the worst flooding since Hurricane Irene in 2011. Even if it turns out to be not that bad, renewed flooding in at least a few spots by Monday if not sooner feels inevitable to me.
I'll be watching this closely.
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