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| Forecasts were updated late this morning and Vermont is now included in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms Thursday. The main risk is damaging winds and hail, but there's also a very, very low, but not zero chance of a tornado. A flood watch has also been posted Thursday in Vermont. |
Meteorologists are noticing a trend that would increase the severity of Thursday's expected thunderstorms compared to earlier forecasts. That severity could lead to additional flooding rains, along with other unwanted problems.
Before we get to that, we should talk about this afternoon. A few widely scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms have developed in Vermont.
So far, they're small and for the most part moving right along. They might cause interruptions to the cleanup in a small minority of flood-afflicted towns.
Although today's storms might create brief downpours, at this point in the early afternoon I don't think these local storms will be enough to add anything substantial to the misery.
As of 2:20 p.m. I was slightly worried about a thunderstorm with heavy rain north of Rutland headed toward the Green Mountains. But I do think it will move on.
Another bonus starting mid to late afternoon is the very minor weather system causing today's isolated storms will cause humidity levels to drop later this afternoon. The widely scattered storms should end by evening, too.
Now on to Thursday.
THURSDAY DANGER
In the morning, that brief intrusion of somewhat drier air will be swept north out of Vermont by a warm front, which will put us back in the humid soup.
That humidity will be one ingredient for what happens next.
Some of afternoon storms could be severe, and supercells could be involved. Supercells are persistent, strong thunderstorms with a rotating updraft. They're extremely common in the Midwest, Plains and South, and do occasionally happen here.
Supercells often contain damaging winds and large hail, and that is possible in some towns in Vermont Thursday afternoon. There's also a very, very low, but not zero chance of a tornado or two. This, of course is exactly what we don't need added to the mix of Vermont weather woes.
The other problem, of course is heavy rain. It doesn't look like any storms will sit over one spot for that long. But with all the fuel available, some storms will contain torrential rains. Up to two inches could fall in a short period of time.
I've seen supercells set of minor flash flooding in dry conditions. With the current high water and saturated ground, these storms unfortunately could create more flood problems.
The National Weather Service in South Burlington has hoisted a flood watch for almost all of Vermont from Rutland and Windsor counties north. The flood watch goes from early afternoon until late Thursday night.
The Champlain Valley isn't in the flood watch at the moment, mostly because that area got somewhat less rain during our epic storm this week than the rest of the state.
The threat of severe storms diminishes but does not entirely go away on Friday. And on Friday, some of those non-severe storms could dump more locally heavy rain.
Gawd, I wish I was providing a forecast full of cool, dry air, blue skies and fresh breezes, but no such luck. This will end eventually, but we have to be patient, and as I keep saying, Vermont Strong.
Meanwhile, the work goes on. Lamoille County is now getting extra attention from the severe flooding there. More than 30 people there were rescued yesterday and last night, according to Vermont Public.
Johnson's sewage treatment plant has been under water since Monday, and nobody in town knows how it's doing. Other than likely not good at all.
The best news of all, though, is that against all odds, we still no reports of deaths or serious injuries from this Vermont disaster.
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