Monday Evening Vermont Flood Update: Destruction To Continue Overnight; Towns Isolated

North Branch of the Winooski River rising rapidly
toward State Street in Montpelier late Monday 
afternoon amid continued downpours. 

 Back now at 7 pm. from my Vermont flood tour, and, as everybody knows, it's nasty out there. 

So far, we have one unconfirmed fatality in Londonderry, dozens of roads under water or washed out, towns devastated, and more to come.  

The two biggest challenges overnight will be main stem river flooding, and likely renewed flash flooding in northern Vermont. 

Some examples: The Winooski River at Essex Junction is now forecast to crest tomorrow at 21.6 feet, which would be the fifth highest on record. The same river in Montpelier is forecast to crest at 19.3 feet, which would be the second highest on record and higher than during Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

I was in Montpelier today and the Winooski was rising rapidly, and the downtown was just as rapidly becoming a ghost town.  Most business were closed, except the hardware and grocery store.  I was surprised by how many businesses hadn't moved merchandise from lower shelves on sales floors. Several businesses had sand bags bunched up against doors. 

Along Interstate 89 between Montpelier and Middlesex, water cascaded off the roadside ledges in several areas, sometimes spewing water onto the pavement. 

Further south, the expected crest on the Otter Creek in Center Rutland is 14 feet, also the second highest on record. Similar high crests are expected along the Lamoille River. 

MORE FLASH FLOODS?

A secondary threat is new flash flooding in northern Vermont.  Rainfall rates have decreased some, but heavy rain is expected over northwestern Vermont possibly until about dawn.  

The Champlain Valley from Burlington north has largely escaped the flooding, but this could change overnight. I'd especially keep my eye on Franklin County overnight. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said there is an 80 percent chance of a once in 100 year rain event around St Albans. A forecast of  80 percent chance of such an occurrence is almost unheard of. 

It's too soon to assess how much damage has been done, since some towns are still mostly inaccessible. This will be on par with 2011's Tropical Storm Irene.  Those of you who lived through that know how long it took to get past and rebuild from the that.  

A barn starts to take on water in Jonesville, Vermont
late Monday afternoon as the nearby Winooski River
rose rapidly toward a near-record flood crest. 

It was still raining in most of Vermont as of 7 p.m. Already, some of the totals are just incredible. Mount Holly reported 8.66 inches. Tyson came in with 8.4 inches. Several towns, including Braintree, Ludlow, Middlesex and Worcester, had more than six inches. 

Some of the towns that had the most rain today, like Killington, Hardwick and Worcester, already had flash floods last Friday. 

When you get up tomorrow, expect a lot of travel disruptions, either because roads are under water or washed out. I suspect Interstates 89 and 91 will be OK or mostly so, but it''s a roll of the dice for everyone else. 

I'll start talking about what's next in some of tomorrow's post, but I can't handle that tonight. 

One thing I will telegraph is that the danger of flash flooding and more damage doesn't end with the departure of this storm tomorrow.

We're still stuck in the same weather pattern that will bring almost daily chances of showers and storms. Some with heavy rain. We won' have a repeat of the nightmare we went through today.

But as we try to patch things up, our work might be undone in some places by new, localized flash flooding.