1 PM Thursday Update: Severe Storm Threat Grows In Vermont/New York, Watch Issued

Northern and central New York and extreme western
Vermont have been upgraded to "enhanced" risk
of severe storms today. That means numerous
severe storms are likely. Slight risk means
scattered instances of severe weather. 

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont and all of New York except for the extreme west out by Buffalo.   

Moreover, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has increased the alert level for severe thunderstorms from "slight" to "enhanced."  The rest of Vermont is still listed under "slight" risk.

Enhanced risk is level three on a five point scale of thunderstorm risk. It's the first enhanced level we've seen in Vermont this year.  Slight risk means there will likely be scattered instances of severe storms, defined as having winds of greater than 58 mph and/or hail one inch in diameter or bigger.

An enhanced risk means there should be numerous severe thunderstorms. Western Vermont in particular ought to keep an eye on the skies and pay attention to warnings. 

There continues to be a very small, but not zero risk of a tornado in the Champlain Valley or elsewhere in western Vermont. But the main threat is strong straight line winds.

Even though the risk of a tornado is low, it will feel like tornado weather out ahead of the storms in the Champlain Valley this afternoon. South winds will be gusty, possibly reaching as high as 35 mph.  Avoid boating on Lake Champlain today.

Amid the winds, it will continue to get increasingly hot and humid ahead of the storms. 

A severe thunderstorm watch, which we are now under, just means conditions are favorable for bad storms. If you see a severe thunderstorm warning for your area, that means a bad storm is about to hit.

If/when you get a severe thunderstorm warning today, go into a sturdy building and try to stay away from windows. This risk is somewhat higher than the usual hit and miss stuff we get.

As of 1 p.m., the developing line of severe storms was approaching Syracuse and Watertown, New York and was making steady progress east while strengthening. 

FLOODING

Of course, with all this going on, the flooding risk remains. The thinking from this morning so far hasn't changed much. The storms late this afternoon and evening will have the potential to cause renewed flash flooding anywhere in Vermont.

The greatest risk, though is in the southern half of the state. That risk will last well into the night. 

Bottom line: Vermont is about suffer more storm damage, which we surely don't need. The damage we will incur today and tonight will be much, much less than what we went through Monday and Tuesday. 

But every little bit hurts all the more. Stay safe and stay Vermont Strong.