Severe, Life Threatening Flash Floods Today In Vermont, Even If You Feel Unscathed (So Far)

Screen grab from the Warren, Vermont covered bridge
web cam shows the Mad River rising rapidly in
town. Flash flooding is ongoing and getting
worse across Vermont. 

 Flash flooding, as expected, is going on in Vermont and surrounding areas, and it will get worse throughout the day. It's still a hair on fire type of emergency developing, unfortunately.  

I still think this will easily be the worst flooding since Irene. 

This is a rapidly developing situation, so pay attention to warnings from the National Weather Service. That's your best bet for th day. 

The flooding today could easily become life threatening and catastrophic, and in some places in the Green Mountain State, it's already beginning to approach that point. 

Some of you might think I'm an idiot for saying all this, since as of early this morning, some areas away from the Green Mountains have only had a light rain storm so far. 

I emphasize the term "so far" as some areas that only had a gentle rain through 6 a.m. are still in for a very rough ride. 

As of 6:30 a.m, or so, the worst flooding has clung close to the Green Mountains. It looks like south-central Vermont southeast of Rutland is having the worst time so far.  For example:

--- The National Weather Service has declared a flash flood emergency and particularly dangerous situation in and around Ludlow due to the onslaught of water. Such declarations are reserved only for dire, life threatening circumstances. 

--- Swift water rescuers retrieved ten campers from flooding in Andover overnight. 

--- Route 100, the main south-north route through the heart of Vermont's Green Mountains is closed by flooding in Ludlow. Another section of Route 100 in Weston is washed out.

--- Sections of Route 103 in Mount Holly and Ludlow are closed. Ludlow has already reported a whopping 5.67 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

--- Route 4 in Woodstock is closed.   So is Route 30 in Winhall and Jamaica. 

The flooding was spreading north early today,  Route 16 in Barton was reported closed at dawn's early light. There's a report of Route 2 being closed around Middlesex. 

THE OUTLOOK

Flash flood warnings were up for virtually all of the spine of the Green Mountains this morning.  The overnight round of heavy rain was getting ready to temporarily taper off somewhat for a short time. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center continues to have much of Vermont in a high risk zone for flooding today, focused most intensely along and north of Route 4 and from the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains west to around Plattsburgh and Saranac Lake, New York.  .

A rare high risk (in pink) zone for flash flooding today
High risk means chances are high that there will
be catastrophic, life threatening floods. 

As I mentioned yesterday, a high risk is very rare and is almost always associated with deadly, catastrophic flooding. 

Rainfall rates in some of the heaviest downpours could reach 1.5 inches per hour, which is a LOT. 

Through 6 a.m, Burlington had had an unremarkable storm total of 0.55 inches of rain.  Interestingly, the Weather Prediction Center places the bullseye of heaviest rain today over the Champlain Valley.

IF that comes to pass, it would be bad for a lot of reason. .Mostly, it's the most heavily populated section of the state. Urban and basement flooding would be widespread. Worse, the towns in eastern Chittenden County would see extreme flash flooding under this scenario as water rushes off the mountains.

Every part of Vermont is at risk for serious flooding today and everyone should be bracing themselves. But I would say people who live within 50 miles either side of Route 7 between Rutland and the Canadian border really had better be on full alert. At least if the NOAA people are right about things. 

By the way, this scenario is also a potential scary problem all the way on up to Montreal.  Severe flash flooding in a big city like that is quite the nightmare. 

Bottom line: If you're in a safe place that's not flood prone, stay put today.  If you're in a flood prone area, be ready to bail at a moment's notice. Have a planned route to get out of Dodge, and remember to have your "to go" bin ready to take with you, containing medicines, important papers, etc. 

And for gawd's sake if you're driving and see the road ahead of you is covered in water, just turn around. Turning around will save your life, and the lives of any brave souls who tries to rescue you from the water. 

WE AREN'T THE ONLY ONES

A minor saving grace on Sunday is that rainfall in Vermont was not quite as widespread or heavy as predicted. That will ever so slightly lower the risk today, but not by a really noticeable margin.

Areas of New York's lower Hudson Valley and parts of Pennsylvania were not so lucky with the rain yesterday. Extreme flash flooding hit those areas.

In what I hope won't be a preview of what happens in Vermont today, more than six inches of rain poured down on West Point, New York in just  three hours. 

The entire area north of New York City had extreme flash flooding.  One woman died after being swept away by water while trying to flee her house. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said several people are missing and at least one home was swept away. 

Historic buildings at the West Point Academy are flooded and damaged. 

Severe flash flooding also struck eastern Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey.  

Here in the Green Mountain State, be safe and Vermont Strong, everyone!