Today's Flash Flood Risk In Vermont Off To An Early Start

Weather radar shortly after 6 am today showed a robust
area of rain crossing Vermont, which could touch
off local flash floods. Round 2 of rain this 
afternoon and evening carries a somewhat higher flood risk

 A band of locally heavy rain was crossing Vermont as of 6 a.m., which raised the risk of some flash flooding even before we get to work this morning. 

Already, one  flood warning was up for an area of the central Champlain Valley from about Charlotte to Shoreham. That area seems to have experienced a particularly heavy cell passing through. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says there's a risk of more localized flash flooding this morning in Vermont as the is band of rain makes its way east across Vermont early this morning. Some storm totals from this band of early morning rain could range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches in spots.

Given how wet the soils still are, that's  more than enough to set off localized problems. Be very careful driving to work early this morning. Especially if your trip takes you through steep terrain with lots of small brooks that become raging torrents.

Remember, a lot of roads are compromised along the edges of them from previous flash floods. So it's easy to get new damage that might not be readily apparent.  If possible, don't drive close to the edges of the road if it looks a bit off from previous flash floods. 

I'm not meaning to be a scaremonger. Not everyone will have a flash flood this morning. But I expect a couple problems in a few areas as we go through the early morning.  This band of rain should exit western Vermont before 8 a.m. and eastern Vermont by 11 or so. 

Remember that even after the rain stops, there could be runoff creating some flood problems. 

This morning band of rain is a combination of a warm front coming in and the remnants of large number of severe storms that cause damage in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, western New York and Ontario, Canada. 

LATER TODAY

This morning's rain is another "pre-soak," much like we had Sunday and Tuesday mornings. The early rain today is priming the pump for potential additional trouble later today. 

As humid air floods in and a cold front approaches from the west, more thunderstorms will fire up this afternoon. They'll be what we've been experiencing so often this summer:  They won't be moving very fast. And some of these will have torrential rain. 

A flash flood risk will redevelop this afternoon and evening across all of Vermont.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington says a particular area of worry is in the southern Green Mountains and east-central Vermont. 

Those places might have the best combination of already soaked, flood-prone ground and some of the heaviest downpours with today's event. 

In terms of flash flood potential, I think today is worse than Tuesday, which had only a couple spotty reports of high water.  I don't know if it will be as bad as this past Sunday, when we had numerous instances of flash flooding. In any event, definitely be weather aware today and be ready to move in a jiffy to higher ground. 

On top of all that, a few of todays storms might be severe. We'll probably see some scattered reports of damaging winds, with trees and wires down.  The severe storm threat is not as big as the flood risk, but it's there and needs to be watched. 

There's even - just like a week or so ago - a very, very low but not zero chance of a brief spin up twister in southern and central Vermont. I think the tiny risk is even lower than on July 13, when a tornado did touch down around Benson and Sudbury. 

Things will settle down later tonight, and any flash flood risk will diminish as well. 

LIGHT AT END OF TUNNEL

That mini headline is not an oncoming train. That long awaited weather pattern change is about to arrive, greatly diminishing the threat of new flooding in Vermont after today. 

It'll be more of a typical summer pattern. Yes, there will be chances of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms on some days, but it won't be this constant barrage of slow moving downpours. 

We'll  stay on the warm side, too. Saturday will definitely feel cooler, if still a bit sticky, with lingering showers around. Sunday is looking nice, kind of like yesterday was like. 

The upcoming week will stay quite warm, and kind of humid, with a little more emphasis on warmth toward the end of the week, when a few of the warmer valleys could touch 90 degrees.

Hard to say for sure, but it looks like Tuesday might have the greatest amount of showers and storms Again, it doesn't look like those will be flood-inducing torrents, but as always, we can watch and see what happens.