Wednesday Evening Update: ANOTHER Flood Watch In Vermont

A road in Middlesex, Vermont succumbs to flash flooding
early this month. Once again, we have a threat of localized
flash flooding again on Thursday. 

 I feel compelled to give a quick Wednesday evening update since we now have a little more clarity on a flash flood and severe storm threat tomorrow. 

A flood watch - I swear the millionth one this summer - is in effect for all of Vermont from very roughly dawn to dusk. 

As was the case the past few episodes of heavier rain, we have a morning pre-soak followed by the risk of torrential thunderstorms in the afternoon and perhaps very early evening. 

No guarantees, but it's beginning to look like the morning dose of rain will be the main show across northern Vermont. From roughly dawn to early afternoon, it's so far looking like the rain will come down steadily and occasionally heavily. 

This morning and early afternoon burst of rain will probably produce roughly an inch of rain, give or take, with locally higher amounts. 

This normally wouldn't be that much of a problem. But given how saturated soils still are, we'll get more runoff than usual. 

 A few spots north of Route 2 had a thunderstorm Tuesday might to help ensure soils are still sopping wet. (It was pretty squishy underfoot in my yard in St. Albans, Vermont this morning).

If we get any localized flash flooding in northern Vermont, it could start as soon as midmorning.

After the morning batch of rain departs, things get a little iffier.  Conditions will be pretty ripe for new thunderstorms anywhere in Vermont. But it seems at this point anyway that the stronger ones would be in southern and perhaps into parts of central Vermont. 

If there are any afternoon storms, all hazards are in play: Those being: Damaging winds, localized flash floods from torrential rains, hail, and even a very low, but none-zero chance of a tornado again. 

Any flash flooding is dangerous, so heed any warnings. Of course, most of us won't see flash flooding, but it could happen anywhere in the state Thursday. 

The bad weather should be out of here by sunset. The flash flood threat should end before midnight. 

Friday will have its own issues, with oppressive heat and humidity.  Highs will be 85 to 90, which isn't all that bad, but the humidity will put heat indexes into the low and mid 90s.

We have to watch a cold front Saturday as it might briefly stall over Vermont, leading to another heavy rain threat.

After that, the pattern change will complete itself, and we'll have an extended period of cooler than normal weather. After all the humidity we've had since the third week in June, starting Sunday, it will feel like fall has arrived.

Since the humidity will also crash, any rain we get next week should be pretty light. I don't know how long that cool regime will last, but it looks like it could go on for at least a week, if  not more. 

I'll have an update tomorrow morning, of course, with more details on where things are headed.