Tuesday 8 PM Update: For A Change, I Think Vermont Mostly Dodged A Bullet Today

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center highlighted
the area in the pink cloud as the main area to watch
for flash flooding today. So far, at least, it 
hasn't been so bad. 

UPDATE: BULLET DODGED?

Now that we're well into the evening, I want to say Vermont finally dodged a bullet.

Yes, there were a couple problems, like a mudslide in Proctorsville Gulf and a couple of trees taken down by a severe thunderstorm in Tunbridge.

But despite some scares, I haven't seen any reports of calamities so far this evening.

There were still a few showers and storms around as of 8 pm. that could create mischief, but we are nearly out of the woods for today's flood risk. At least I think so. I've been unpleasantly surprised before.

Much more coming with Wednesday morning's update.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Well, it's going to be another annoying afternoon and evening in Vermont. 

As of early afternoon, while we're busily choking on wildfire smoke, downpours are firing up as expected. 

The biggest potential problem today is, as usual, local flash floods.  They're possible anywhere in the state. But for now at least, the focus is on the Connecticut River Valley.

Storms quickly blossomed late this morning, and continue to roam around that region. The first ones moved into New Hampshire, prompting a large area of flash flood warnings in the western part of that state.

As I write this, there's also a smaller area flash flood warning around Hartford, Sharon, Pomfret and Norwich.

There seems to be a subtle trough line running from New York City to far western Maine, and it goes right up the Connecticut Valley. This little thingy isn't in any hurry to move away, it appears.

Which opens the door to storms training, the dreaded string of "boxcars" on railroad tracks going over the same spot repeatedly. These boxcars/thunderstorms already seem to be arranging themselves, so we'll have to watch the Connecticut Valley closely for the next few hours. 

The Northeast Kingdom, which just had flash flooding Sunday, is another area to closely watch this afternoon. They're in today's "training" zone, and it's already rained up there today. 

Other storms were firing up in New York State as of 1:30 p.m.  The closest ones were on the New York side of the Champlain Valley.  These storms so far aren't "training" but they're not moving fast, either. That could prolong downpours over areas super sensitive to renewed flash flooding, i.e. all of eastern New York and Vermont. 

The New York storms were increasing in coverage, and that trend will continue this afternoon as they gradually move into Vermont. 

A few of these storms could become strong over severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is toying with the idea of issuing a severe thunderstorm watch for Vermont and surrounding areas. But as of early this afternoon, they weren't quite sure yet if severe storms would be widespread enough to warrant a watch. 

One thing I'm not sure on is whether the wildfire smoke would suppress the storms a little bit. That happened with storms in June when we had thicker smoke than this.  So don't count on the current air pollution to save us from any more flash floods. 

Whatever happens, this won't end quickly. The storms won't start to diminish in number and strength until at least sunset.

On the bright side, so far tomorrow and Thursday look dry. Well, maybe a little humid, but not rainy!