Flash Flood Risk Dwindling Northern Vermont; South Still Stormy

Radar from the National Weather Service office in 
South Burlington at around 8 am showed lots of rain north
spottier south. Southern Vermont will get in on
downpours and possible severe storms in a few hours. 

UPDATE 2 p.m

The heavy rain in northern Vermont from this morning is departing, and so far I've seen no reports of any real flood damage.

I'm sure there were some very minor washouts or ponding of water here and there, especially north of Route 2, where the heaviest stuff fell. 

The heavy rain was still in the Northeast Kingdom as of 1:45 p.m, but was heading out. 

Behind that are some scattered light showers.  And there might be a few showers or even garden variety thundershowers in the humid air north of Route 4 today,

I'd say northern Vermont can go on for the rest of the day without worrying about any new flash flooding. 

As expected, storms are firing up south of Rutland and White River. A severe thunderstorm watch is up for far southern Vermont.  The chances of a severe thunderstorm in Rutland and Windsor counties is low, but is still a possibility. 

Judging from radar, Bennington and Windham counties in particular are prone to severe storms with potentially damaging wind gusts for the next few hours.  These storms contain torrential rains so flash flooding is also still a risk down that way. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 8:30 AM

The latest batch of heavy rain has arrived, and there's not much change in the forecast from last night. 

However, it's looking a little like Vermont is at least partly threading the needle between heavy rains that hit further west, and severe storms that will hit further south. 

That said, there's still a risk of some localized flash flooding statewide, and a decent shot of a few locally severe storms south. Bottom line: Not the end of the world, but stay on your toes anyway. 

NORTHERN VERMONT 

In northern Vermont, it's mostly turning out to be a steady rain that - as expected -  started near dawn. That steady rain will continue probably into the early afternoon before tapering off.  There could be a few stray showers and mild thundershowers left behind in the north this afternoon, but nothing spectacular. 

So far, the rate of rainfall in Vermont, and the pace of the rain heading at us from New York, isn't overly torrential.

Rainfall in the northern half of the state will probably amount to about an inch.  A real soaker for sure, but not extreme.  A few favored spots will get more.  

Normally, this amount of rain is nothing to worry about, but the ground is so wet, local flash floods and mud slides can get going in today's drencher 

While there's definitely a risk for some flash flooding north today, I don't think it's going to be all that widespread.  Be ready to react to any flash flood warnings that go out, but that might or might not happen. This isn't a new calamity in the making. 

SOUTHERN VERMONT

The rain in southern Vermont was spottier as of 7:30 a.m. And though it may fill in a little bit, the southern half of the state should remain more showery than steady this morning. 

That opens the door to more instability in the air this afternoon, so there's a chance of some severe storms here and there this afternoon. The main threat is locally damaging straight line winds.  There's a very, very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in southeastern Vermont. 

Although there might be some thunder north, the better chance of strong or severe storms is along and south of Route 4.  They'll tend to develop really fast, so there might not be much of an interval between when something is a nothing burger to when it becomes a powerhouse. 

Downpours in any of those thunderstorms would be much more torrential than this morning's drumbeat of rain further north. So that opens the door to possibly a somewhat greater chance of flash floods in southern Vermont this afternoon. 

Again, we're talking about local issues.  One town has a problem, the next town over is fine. 

This system is moving fast, so it should mostly be out of our hair by 6 p.m. or so. 

The risk for severe storms and even a tornado or two increases this afternoon and early evening in western and central Massachusetts, most of New Hampshire and southern Maine, so keep an eye on that if you're heading in that direction. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We have one more shot of excessive rain in Vermont's long parade of flood watches and warnings before we get into a long, welcome spell of cool, dry weather with low humidity.

Friday will be oppressive. It'll at least get close to 90 degrees and the humidity will be awful. 

A cold front will be lurking in Quebec, and it could get close enough to set off some storms Friday evening. 

The front will sink into Vermont Saturday, but there's signs it might get hung up in our area for some time on Saturday.  That would spell the risk of torrential storms training west to east along the front, raising fresh flash flood chances. 

We don't know for sure where that will happen or even if it does at all, but it's something to watch.

Starting Sunday,  welcome to September in August.