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| Severe flooding in southeastern Vermont today. |
It does look as bad as Irene.
NOTE: I might or might not have an evening post on this, depending how long a reporting/potential helping trip on this takes. But this post will give you a decent update:
I was of course horrified to see the damage spreading north through the morning. Several roads are closed in central Vermont, especially between Pittsfield, on through Warren and on toward Northfield.
Rainfall totals through mid-morning include 5.67 inches in Ludlow, 4.49 inches in Bridgewater and 4.19 inches in Belmont.
In the central and northern Green Mountains, we have numerous reports of three inches of rain already.
I've already seen images of many homes and businesses suffering major damage. I see that Gov. Phil Scott is having a lot of conversations with FEMA. Scott, to nobody's surprise, on Sunday declared a state of emergency in Vermont ahead of the storm.
As an aside, I'm happy some people are keeping a sense of humor where they can. I sign posted on the door of the Three Penny Taproom in Montpelier says: "Closed - Lack of Staff With Boats."
We're not nearly through this yet. Another three to five inches of rain could drown some areas of Vermont between now and Tuesday morning.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
Some areas of Vermont were experiencing a bit of a lull in the rain late this morning. However, yet another patch of heavy rain was still over the worst of the flood zone in southeastern and south-central Vermont as of 11 a.m. That's surely making an awful situation worse.
Those of you experiencing a lull in the rain should avoid a false sense of security. You can use the time to carefully fortify yourself and your property against additional rain and flooding. Which is coming.
One ominous thing I noticed for my early morning blog post here that heavy rain seemed to want to back northwestward into the Champlain Valley. Several computer models are picking up on this.
Most of the Champlain Valley until now has been mostly spared. Through 11 a.m. Burlington has had a quite manageable storm total of 0.85 inches. And that was spread over more than 12 hours.
But now, low pressure over central New York looks like it pull huge amounts of water from the Atlantic Ocean northwestward. This arrangement would send deep plumes of torrential rain down the Winooski River valley, through Montpelier and on into Burlington and the rest of the Champlain valley.
Aside from the obvious danger from this scenario, the flash flooding would hit before or during the evening rush hour. People will be clamoring to get home amid flooded streets and car wrecks from hydroplaning on the highways.
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| Ludlow, Vermont this morning. Photo via Ludlow Ambulance Service. |
Those headed home toward the eastern Addison, Chittenden and Franklin County foothills might encounter rapidly escalating flash flooding. That's all a dangerous recipe. I'm not guaranteeing this will happen, but it's enough to worry about.
This scenario really makes me nervous about the Green Mountains and slopes on either side of them from Killington to Jay Peak.
That NOAA rare high risk zone for flooding covering most of Vermont has been maintained, except they extended it southward to cover areas closer to Massachusetts. As mentioned, it's raining buckets in hard-hit southeast Vermont, and there's no reason to think the rain will stop anytime soon.
This is turning into a longer lasting disaster than Irene. The heavy rain from that storm was in and out of Vermont within 24 hours.
In this episode, it started at least in spots Sunday afternoon. The rain won't really exit northern Vermont until sometime Tuesday morning.
RIVER FLOODING
Even as the flash floods subside tonight and tomorrow, river flooding becomes a nasty problem. At best, the water will be high enough to wreck crops. For instance, all those vegetable farms in Burlington's Intervale are in big trouble.
Even worse, towns like Montpelier, Waterbury, Richmond, Johnson and Cambridge are in flood plains. They're all at risk from flooding along rivers such as the Winooski and Lamoille.
The most troubling sign I've seen is a just updated forecast that, if accurate, would bring the Winooski River at Montpelier to levels a little higher than what they suffered through during Hurricane Irene. That would flood the downtown and be the second highest crest on record, behind the Great Flood of 1927
If you live in these or any other Vermont flood plain community, I'd consider moving stuff to second floors or higher ground starting now.
They've been adjusting expected river crests upward, and I suspect hydrologists will continue to do so. As of this morning, the Winooski River is forecast to crest more than four feet above flood stage at Essex Junction tomorrow. That would bring it just below the major flood category.
The Otter Creek in Rutland County is quite flood prone, and this will be no exception. That river was rising rapidly and had just reached flood stage of 8 feet as of 10:45 a.m. It will continue going up, and it's rising faster than forecasts had indicated.
The Mad River at Moretown just went over flood stage late this morning and was also still rising rapidly.
WHAT TO DO
If anything, this afternoon and evening could well be worse than this morning. If you're on high, safe ground, continue to stay put. If you're in the Champlain Valley and are able to leave work and go home now before the rain really picks up, do so.
If you're in a flood prone area, continue to be ready to flee in an instant.
Most flood deaths are in cars, so the admonishment not to drive onto flooded roads really applies here.
Dozens of Vermont roads and highways are closed this afternoon. There is a reason for this, to be Captain Obvious, so don't drive around road blocks and barriers on these roads.
Expect conditions this afternoon and evening to change quickly in any given place. Keep your devices charged, too, so you can receive warnings.
Like I keep saying, stay Vermont Strong.
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