Quick Shot Of Summer To Be Followed By Weekend Chill

Lilacs in the foreground, lilacs in the background on this
sunny, warm late May morning in Vermont. But some
"interesting" weather could arrive this weekend. 

It was definitely a soaker of a Memorial Day weekend in Vermont, with virtually everyone receiving at least three quarters of an inch of rain and most places going over an inch. 

The heaviest rain seemed to be in central Vermont, where two day totals included 1.8 inches in Hinesburg, 1.76 inches in Vergennes 1.71 inches in West Bridgewater and 1.68 inches in Warren. 

Also, the last of the snow melted atop Mount Mansfield over the weekend. There was no measurable snow up there for the first time since October 26.  

That's one of the longest "winters" Mount Mansfield has had. But is the snow really done for the season up there on Vermont's highest peak? Read on to find out. 

The clouds were frustratingly slow to move out yesterday afternoon, especially in  northern Vermont. But they finally did toward evening, giving us a short shot at summer for the next couple of days before annoyingly chilly weather returns. Things could get pretty interesting by this weekend. 

Here's how this will play out

TODAY

A squirt of very warm air has moved in from the west. Forecasters have bumped up expected temperatures today so it's going to actually feel kind of hot. Warmer valley floors should get into the mid-80s. Humidity levels should be reasonable, though, and there will be a nice southwest breeze.

WEDNESDAY

Yesterday, I told you about that Omega block setting up around the nation. This thing will make Vermont turn cool, and very cool by the weekend. Before we get there though, the first of a series of cold fronts will have come through by tomorrow, but it won't make too much of a difference. 

It should still get well into the 70s, with some low 80s in broader valleys, including the Champlain Valley. We'll call the skies partly sunny.

THURSDAY

Upper air weather forecast map for Friday night. Click on
image to make it bigger and easier to see. It shows an
upper level, cold low over us. Those blue lines indicate
that it could be cold enough to snow on mountain peaks.

Here's where we begin to feel the north winds. It'll still be sunny, but highs will only reach the 60s, with some low 70s south. That's actually a couple degrees cooler than average for this time of year. But still very nice. Then the fun begins.

FRIDAY

A pocket of very cold air, which looks like a bowling ball on weather maps, will race down from Hudson Bay and score a strike on us here in Vermont starting during the day Friday. It'll be overhead Friday evening into Saturday. 

Given that this is coming straight from dry northern Canada, you'd think there wouldn't be much weather coming out of this. But the dynamics in this "bowling ball" look like they'll be strong, so lots of showers will break out starting Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

This is really cold air aloft for this time of year. Early guesses are that the snow level Friday night and Saturday morning could fall to 4,000 feet. So,  yes, it would snow on Mount Mansfield if this forecast is correct.

Even if it does't snow, it will be very cold and wet and windy in the mountains, so you might want to postpone your weekend hiking plans. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday looks chilly and showery, too, but probably not as bad as Saturday. After that, a slow warming trend should take hold next week, but it will probably remain cooler than average for at least the first half of the week. 

Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

Winter Won't End, At Least In The Mountains

A view of Mount Mansfield from the winter of 2019. Snow
cover on the summit has been below normal all winter, but new
installments of high elevations snow are in the forecast for
the next few days. 

 It was a lackluster snow year in the higher summits of the Green Mountains of Vermont this winter. Through April 1, the deepest snow at the stack near the top of Mount Mansfield was 57 inches. 

On average, the snow depth atop Vermont's highest peak tops out at about 70 inches. In many years, more than 100 inches of snow graces the areas near the summit.

Snow depth atop Mount Mansfield remains below average now, due to bouts of rain and mild temperatures this month. Even so, the snow is hanging tough remarkably well because there's been decent, but not overwhelming snows in Vermont's mountains this month. 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield actually reached a later than average season peak of 61 inches last Sunday.  It's back down to 48 inches, but new installments of snow are due. That's true of Vermont's mountains, but even the valley floors might be getting into the snow act over the next few days. 

The relative mild character of this April will come to end in Vermont today, and it won't warm up all that much for a good week or so. There's also a couple chances of snow, with the second round of snow potentially heavy in the high elevations. 

Today will be chilly and raw, with temperatures not getting out of the 40s, with light showers around.  Those will change to snow later today and tonight in the mountains, and I bet the summits will clock in with at least one to three inches of new snow by tomorrow. Even the valleys could get some wet snow flakes tonight and tomorrow. 

A break comes Monday with sunshine. After a pretty hard morning freeze (still pretty normal for this time of year) we'll pop back up into the low 50s, which is only slightly on the cool side for mid-April.

Then there's the next bout of storminess Tuesday.  One storm will head into the Great Lakes while another nor'easter type thing gets going on or near the New England coast. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington puts it, how these two storms interact will establish who gets how much snow, and who gets rain. 

If neither storm really dominates then it will mostly be a cold, light rain. But if the coastal storm turns dominate, then precipitation will be heavier, and more likely take the form of snow Tuesday. 

The dominate coastal scenario at this point seems somewhat more likely.  However, it's relatively hard, but not impossible, to kick off a decent snowstorm this late in the season in Vermont valleys. Anything could happen with this one, but right now, it seems like valleys could skate by with a rain/snow mix with little if any accumulation.

The mountains are another story. Higher elevations could easily receive a snowfall of a good six inches or more out of Tuesday's storm. Lingering mountain snow showers would add a little to the totals on Wednesday. 

It will be getting into late April, of course, so it can only stay so cold for so long. Average temperatures are rising fast, so it will keep getting more and more difficult to squeeze out any snow in Vermont.