Global Temperature Record Set Sunday, Then Broken Again On Monday

The world had its hottest day on record this past Monday, at least by one measurement. 

Earth had its warmest day on record Sunday, at least by
one measurement. Then that record was broken on Monday.

Bear with me, as this will be a little number-heavy, but here goes:  

According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, on Monday, July 22, the global average temperature was 17.15 Celsius, or 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit. 

This broke the record set a day earlier, on July 21, 

The global average temperature on July 21 was 17.09 Celsius, or 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit.

That record which lasted a day is an almost indistinguishable bit higher than the previous record, 17.08 degrees Celsius (62.74 F) set on July 6, 2023.

What is striking is how much hotter the world has been in 2023 and 2024 than in previous years and decades. For 13 months ending in recent weeks. global temperatures have run far above any previous levels. 

Says Copernicus: 

"Before July 2023, the previous daily global average temperature record was 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees F) on August 13, 2016, Since 3 July 2023, there have been 57 days that have exceeded that previous record, distributed between July and August, 2023 and during June and July so far in 2024."

The difference between 62.24 and 62.76 degrees F doesn't seem like much at all, but if you average out the whole world, that's a pretty big gap. 

And if you look at the charts showing the temperatures globally every year since 1940, the temperatures in 2023 and 2024 look really out of whack warm.  Back in the mid-1970s,  the peak global temperature annually was around 15.5 degrees Celsius, or 60.35 degrees F.  

This is one of a zillion measures of how climate change is making the world a vastly different place. The records this week will surely be exceeded again. Not sure if it will happen this week,  next week, next summer or a few years from now, but it's inevitable. 

Click on this chart to make it bigger and easier to see.
It shows that through 2023 and 2024 until 
recently, global temperatures have run far
above any other previous years. The lighter-
colored squiggles represent every year
from 1940 to 2022.

A big winter warm spell - at least by their frigid standards - in Antarctica contributed to this week's records by skewing the data even more towards warm. 

Although a new record beyond Monday's could be set this week or next, data indicates global temperatures will back off ever so slightly in the coming days. 

Some scientists say Monday might have been Earth's hottest day in 100,000 years. 

Even though Antarctica contributed to the world's warmth, if you're going to break the record for the world's hottest day, you pretty much have to do it in June, July or August. 

It's winter in the Southern Hemisphere, of course, but Copernicus explains why global temperatures peak in the Northern Hemisphere summer. 

"The global average temperature tends to reach its annual peak between late June and early August, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is because the seasonal patterns of the Northern Hemisphere drive the overall global temperatures. 

The large land masses of the Northern Hemisphere warm up faster than the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere can cool down during the northern summer months. "

In the days and weeks before Sunday and Monday, the global average temperatures was flirting with  near-record levels hovering just slightly below the levels of 2023.  

Global average temperatures have been setting record highs for their respective dates for more than a year before a few fell below those marks earlier this July.  Outside of summer, of course, the global average temperature are cooler than their peak which comes annually around now.   

We in Vermont sat out the world's hottest day. Temperatures Sunday and Monday here were close to normal for our region.   Sunday was Burlington's  third coolest so far this month which overall has been warmer than normal, as you've probably noticed.     

March Was World's 10th Consecutive Record Hot Month

I'm sounding a bit like a broken record here, but for the 10th month in a row, I'm telling you the world just had a new record for warmest March,  at least since they started keeping track of such things.   

Another very red global climate map, another
record warm month in March, 2024 for Planet Earth. 

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information said this March was just a hair above the previous record set in 2016. This was the 48th consecutive March that was warmer than the long term average. 

The data sets for NCEI goes back 175 years, so we know it's was the hottest March since at least 1850.  But climate scientists believe the last time the world was this warm was about 125,000 years ago. 

Before my time, that's for sure. 

NCEI says there's a 55 percent chance this year will outdo 2023 and become the world's hottest year on record. There's a 99 percent chance it'll be among the top five warmest.

The reason NCEI gives this year about a 50-50 chance of being hottest despite the first three months breaking records by pretty big margins is El Nino.

Or rather the demise of it. El Nino is rapidly falling apart, to be replaced by La Nina.  

La Nina on balance cools the Earth slightly. That means subsequent months this year might not break new record for hottest ever. Because of climate change, though, months going forward will be among the hottest on record, no matter what happens with La Nina.

With El Nino rapidly fading, you can see cracks in the 10-month long stretch of global record warmth.  Oceans were the warmest on record in March, but land areas were just fourth warmest. But combine oceans and land, you still get a record warm March on Earth. 

As in the previous ten months, very warm conditions relative to average covered huge areas of the globe. These include almost all of Africa, Europe and South American, along with eastern North America, eastern Asia and eastern Australia.

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyplace that was cooler than average in March.  Cool areas relative to average were pretty much limited to  parts of Antarctica, which is interesting, western Australia and a little patch of the North Atlantic just south of Iceland.

That cool patch off of Iceland is not a good sign. This "cold blob" has been often re-appearing in this region for the better part of a decade now. 

There are conflicting theories on this. Some of it could be cold fresh water melting off of Greenland in ever-greater quantities.  Cold, salty water is dense, so it sinks, and warmer water goes over the top of it. But cold fresh water doesn't sink like salty water does, so that could be part of the issue.

However, the cold blob is often there in the winter, when there is virtually no melting from Greenland. 

Increased winds in the region might also encourage the cold blob. However, scientists say those higher regional winds are also a sign of climate change. 

As usual, other climate monitoring organizations agreed closely with NCEI. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service last Tuesday released their assessment, also with the news that March globally was the warmest on record. 

The Washington Post's account of Tuesday's Copernicus report has a Vermont connection worth noting. The hotter air, the fact that the Atlantic Ocean has heated up so much, has implications for us in the coming months, even if upcoming months turn out to be not quite the hottest ever.

Says WaPO:

"'It should be eye-catching - we are going toward uncharted territory,' said Gillian Gilford, the lead of the Vermont Climate Assessment and a professor at the University of Vermont who reviewed the report. 'It's rather unusual we see such an increased temperature over months and seasons.'

She added that the warmer waters of the Atlantic in particular can lead to larger storms and a more intense hurricane season. It's could also lead, she said, to more storms dumping more water in places like Vermont, in the northeastern United States, which saw intense flooding last summer."

Warmer ocean water adds additional moisture to the atmosphere, which can blow inland and crate serious floods. 

To calm fears, I must say the hot Atlantic is no guarantee Vermont will see additional big floods this spring and summer. Specific weather patterns would need to draw that super saturated air our way. 

We don't know what will happen this summer. For all we know, we in Vermont could have a dry summer if persistent winds come from the dry west or north.  It seems like the wet times are often wetter and the dry times are drier than they used to be. 

The point being with our ever hotter world, expect more surprises and more weather extremes.  Even if a particular month is not the warmest on record for planet Earth. This will go on for the rest of your lives and beyond.   

Sneaky Peak At October Global Temperatures Hint At Another Big Record Breaker

Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service offered
a grim sneak peak at Earth's October climate data.

Most of the official data for global temperatures and other facts and figures for October aren't out yet, but early indications are October was pretty much as scary as September. 

September was the world's hottest on record, but what really had climatologists hitting the panic button was the huge margin by which September's global temperature exceeded the previous record. 

The first major data to come out on a previous month's global climate is from the EU's Copernicus Climate  Change Service.  It shows that the world  just exceeded its previous record for the hottest October by 0.4 degrees Celsius. 

That 0.4 Celsius is roughly a degree Fahrenheit, which doesn't sound like much, but it is a whoppingly large margin when measuring the world as a whole. 

 Preliminary data suggests that 19 percent of the Earth's surface had its hottest October on record.  That's an extraordinarily large area for an all time record. The only month experts say is comparable is September. As was the margin by which October broke the previous record for hottest.

The preliminary October data makes it virtually assured that 2023 will be Earth's hottest year in 125,000 years, according to a team of EU scientists. 

Such hot global air really does a number on storms, making them stronger, more dangerous and more unpredictable. The world seems to be in a sort of mini-lull in big storms over the past couple weeks, with the exception of Europe's Storm Ciaran in October.

But I expect with the combined heat of climate change and El Nino, this is going to be a really destructive winter from intense storms around the world. 

We're still awaiting more data from NOAA, NASA and other agencies to assess this October's global temperature. But scientists say that data, due in a week or so, will be similar to the Copernicus findings. 

I'll keep you posted when the new data comes out!