Dry, Cool Week Ahead In Vermont After Sunday's Gloomy, Lighter Than Expected Rain

Not many signs of fall colors in the trees around my
house as of this morning, but pops of color are 
showing around the state. Fall foliage should 
become much more pronounced this week
as weather is expected to remain cool

We got through our gloomy, chilly Vermont Sunday, only the rainfall was even less than the somewhat pessimistic forecasts ahead of time. 

Burlington received just 0.14 inches of rain. Rutland was even worse with 0.22 inches. St. Johnsbury, Montpelier and Springfield each had a little under a quarter inch. All this was less than the 0.25 to 0.5 inches we were expecting across most of Vermont. 

Too bad, If we had to ensure a cold, rainy Sunday, I kind of wish it was worth it. I would have liked to see a torrential, soaking rain. But no dice.

This bodes badly for the rest of the week in terms of the dry conditions and the developing drought in northeastern Vermont. Current projections have no rain in much of Vermont through at least Sunday. There could be a little late week rain in southeastern Vermont from a developing offshore nor'easter toward Friday or Saturday. 

Our only hope of substantial rain would be if that nor'easter unexpectedly moves much further toward the northwest than many current forecast suggests. A few models bring some fairly substantial rain to southeast Vermont and even some rain to the north, but it's really iffy. 

The week will be cool, with patchy frost around during the early mornings tomorrow through at least Wednesday. Not everyone will see frost, but you'll want to pay attention to forecasts all week, especially if you live well away from the Champlain Valley. 

Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks on New York haven't really had a garden-season ending frost or freeze yet.  Note that people in these areas won't receive any frost or freeze advisories if it does get the cold. We're past the average date of the first autumn freeze of the season in the NEK and Adirondacks, so frost advisories are over for the season in those areas.

Elsewhere in the North Country you might see such alerts as we go through the week.

Let's get into the details:

TODAY:

Although I was seeing some partial clearing here in St. Albans early this morning, I suspect much of the day will be mostly cloudy. Maybe partly sunny in southeast Vermont.   The air will tend to dry out a little more as we get into the late afternoon so there might be a little more sun then.

It'll be another very cool one, but not quite as bad as Sunday. Highs should be in the 55 to 65 degree range. As skies clear tonight, that will set us up for a risk of frost away from Lake Champlain.  Any frost will be patchy, so many areas across Vermont will manage to stay frost free. We should also see the usual widespread valley fog early tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

The morning fog will burn off to reveal a bright, sunny cool fall day as enormous high pressure sets up  in Quebec. It'll still be cool, as we've been talking about, but a little better than today. Highs generally in the 60 to 68 degree range. Despite the slightly warmer afternoon, there's another shot at patchy frost Tuesday night away from the Champlain Valley. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Same old, same old. Patchy frost in a few areas in the morning. Also, some fairly widespread valley fog again. We should get up into the 60s again.  Upper 60s in the warmer valleys

FRIDAY

That offshore nor'easter might or might not start to affect us. There could be some increasing clouds, especially south. Winds from the north and northeast could get a little breezier too, especially in the high elevations of southern Vermont. Early guesses put afternoon high temperatures back in the 60s. 

SATURDAY

What will our nor'easter do? It looks like southeastern New England could be in for a long period of strong winds, battering waves, along with coastal flooding and erosion. It will probably not be the weekend to head the Cape.

Here in Vermont, as noted, we don't know what's going to happen yet. I'm leaning toward a dry northwest and a cloudy, potentially somewhat rain southeast.  Winds in the southern Vermont mountains could get pretty gusty, too. I might change my mind on this later in the week, though. So stay tuned to this bat channel for updates.