A Rare Nice Vermont November Day Was Unfortunately A One-Off

Sorry about the wires marring the photo a bit, but 
for the second evening in a row Thursday, St. Albans,
Vermont was treated to a great sunset after
a nice day.   No more nice days are in the forecast, though.

UPDATE: 6:15 FRIDAY

Not much to update for a change!

Rain has moved into northwestern Vermont this evening right on schedule and will gradually overtake the rest of the state tonight before tapering off by the morning. 

Some upper elevations, especially north, could see some snow at the end. But it won't amount to much. 

There's actually a shot at some places in Vermont seeing some unexpected sun Saturday afternoon, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The storm on Wednesday is still a wild card, as I mentioned in the post I wrote this morning, as you can see below. 

The latest American computer model from late this afternoon has the Wednesday system turning into no biggie for us. However, other computer models still blast us with wind, mixed precipitation and rain. Stay tuned! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

This has been an especially dark and cloudy and chilly November, so Thursday was quite a treat.

Sunshine dominated for a change, and afternoon temperatures were actually warmer than normal for a change - reaching the 50s.  A few warmer southern Vermont valleys touched 60. 

I hope you liked it, because it's over. Probably for the rest of the month. 

We'll have one last warm day today, but it will be clouding up, getting windy in some spots and rain will arrive by dark, or a little after that east of the Green Mountains. 

Most of us will get at least a quarter inch of rain overnight, with several spots coming in near a half inch. Not a big deal, really. 

But, from tonight on, it's going go be cold, we'll have risks of snow occasionally, and it's actually going to be somewhat stormier than we've dealt with so far this month. It's just been little systems so far.

Going forward, we'll still have little storm systems, but they'll pack a little bigger oomph than the ones earlier this month. And we have probably a much larger storm to deal with heading toward Wednesday and Thanksgiving. 

There's something new coming up every day, but the general theme is kinda wintry. We're late enough into the season now that almost every storm from now into March at least, big or small, will involve some snow or mixed precipitation. 

The details:

Saturday: 

Many places in northern and central Vermont, especially higher elevations, will wake up to a dusting of snow.  It'll get cold enough toward the end of tonight's rain for a switch to snow.  It won't amount to much, but there could be some slick spots on the roads early in the morning. 

It will be chilly and cloudy all day, with a northwest wind to make it feel worse

Sunday

A relatively impressive cold front will mess with us Sunday. 

Light snow with this could start before dawn, and many if not most places in central and northern Vermont could see another dusting on the ground. In the warmer valleys, that dusting might melt during the day as temperatures get a little above freezing.

Mid and high elevations could hold on to the white covering, as showers should be in the form of snow all day up there, so a couple inches could pile up away from the valleys.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us mountain summits could see as much as three to six inches of snow out of this. 

Monday:

Our best chance of shot at seeing some sun for the next week at least, but it will come with a price. For the first time this season, most of us won't get above freezing. Except maybe the warmer valleys central and south. 

Tuesday

At this point it looks like it will stay cold, with increasing clouds ahead of our next, larger storm. If things work out as expected, it should stay dry.

Wednesday

This day is a wild card, which sucks because many people are traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday. The models have been shifting wildly. For instance, the American computer model last night had a large, strong, windy double-barreled storm affecting the Northeast. Under this scenario, we'd deal with potentially gusty winds and a mix changing to rain, then snow showers after the storm goes by Thursday.

This morning's run of the American model was WAY different. It has a more modest storm passing to our south, giving us much less wind, but a moderate-sized snowfall. So far, the European model is sticking with the windy mix to rain scenario. Stay tuned!

Thanksgiving

Depending how the big storm sugars out, there could be a huge lake effect snowstorm in New York downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. That would send some lighter snow showers into Vermont, especially the mountains.  It'll be cold again!