A Rare Nice Vermont November Day Was Unfortunately A One-Off

Sorry about the wires marring the photo a bit, but 
for the second evening in a row Thursday, St. Albans,
Vermont was treated to a great sunset after
a nice day.   No more nice days are in the forecast, though.

UPDATE: 6:15 FRIDAY

Not much to update for a change!

Rain has moved into northwestern Vermont this evening right on schedule and will gradually overtake the rest of the state tonight before tapering off by the morning. 

Some upper elevations, especially north, could see some snow at the end. But it won't amount to much. 

There's actually a shot at some places in Vermont seeing some unexpected sun Saturday afternoon, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The storm on Wednesday is still a wild card, as I mentioned in the post I wrote this morning, as you can see below. 

The latest American computer model from late this afternoon has the Wednesday system turning into no biggie for us. However, other computer models still blast us with wind, mixed precipitation and rain. Stay tuned! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

This has been an especially dark and cloudy and chilly November, so Thursday was quite a treat.

Sunshine dominated for a change, and afternoon temperatures were actually warmer than normal for a change - reaching the 50s.  A few warmer southern Vermont valleys touched 60. 

I hope you liked it, because it's over. Probably for the rest of the month. 

We'll have one last warm day today, but it will be clouding up, getting windy in some spots and rain will arrive by dark, or a little after that east of the Green Mountains. 

Most of us will get at least a quarter inch of rain overnight, with several spots coming in near a half inch. Not a big deal, really. 

But, from tonight on, it's going go be cold, we'll have risks of snow occasionally, and it's actually going to be somewhat stormier than we've dealt with so far this month. It's just been little systems so far.

Going forward, we'll still have little storm systems, but they'll pack a little bigger oomph than the ones earlier this month. And we have probably a much larger storm to deal with heading toward Wednesday and Thanksgiving. 

There's something new coming up every day, but the general theme is kinda wintry. We're late enough into the season now that almost every storm from now into March at least, big or small, will involve some snow or mixed precipitation. 

The details:

Saturday: 

Many places in northern and central Vermont, especially higher elevations, will wake up to a dusting of snow.  It'll get cold enough toward the end of tonight's rain for a switch to snow.  It won't amount to much, but there could be some slick spots on the roads early in the morning. 

It will be chilly and cloudy all day, with a northwest wind to make it feel worse

Sunday

A relatively impressive cold front will mess with us Sunday. 

Light snow with this could start before dawn, and many if not most places in central and northern Vermont could see another dusting on the ground. In the warmer valleys, that dusting might melt during the day as temperatures get a little above freezing.

Mid and high elevations could hold on to the white covering, as showers should be in the form of snow all day up there, so a couple inches could pile up away from the valleys.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us mountain summits could see as much as three to six inches of snow out of this. 

Monday:

Our best chance of shot at seeing some sun for the next week at least, but it will come with a price. For the first time this season, most of us won't get above freezing. Except maybe the warmer valleys central and south. 

Tuesday

At this point it looks like it will stay cold, with increasing clouds ahead of our next, larger storm. If things work out as expected, it should stay dry.

Wednesday

This day is a wild card, which sucks because many people are traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday. The models have been shifting wildly. For instance, the American computer model last night had a large, strong, windy double-barreled storm affecting the Northeast. Under this scenario, we'd deal with potentially gusty winds and a mix changing to rain, then snow showers after the storm goes by Thursday.

This morning's run of the American model was WAY different. It has a more modest storm passing to our south, giving us much less wind, but a moderate-sized snowfall. So far, the European model is sticking with the windy mix to rain scenario. Stay tuned!

Thanksgiving

Depending how the big storm sugars out, there could be a huge lake effect snowstorm in New York downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. That would send some lighter snow showers into Vermont, especially the mountains.  It'll be cold again! 

 

Wednesday Evening Storm Update: A "Meh" Storm, But At Least Vermont Gets Some Snow

Total snowfall predictions from the National Weather 
Service office in South Burlington are down from this
morning's expectations. Also, pardon the sloppiness
of this image. I just bought a new MacBook Air, 
which is great, but the new MacBooks are 
extremely hostile to cropping screen grabs.

 At least for now, forecasters are backing off a bit on expected snow totals from the upcoming storm in Vermont Thursday night and Friday. 

Still, we'll end up with more snow on the ground than we have now. For snow lovers, that's good considering the snow drought we're experiencing so far this winter. 

Since there's still not a lot of cold air to play with, this will be a fairly wet snowfall, and a mix of precipitation will probably work in to this mess, especially in southern Vermont. 

Though I'm not a full-fledged meteorologist and am definitely not up to par with the experts at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, I have to agree with them that the initial thump of snow or mix Thursday night might under-perform. 

Freezing rain or sleet can mix in, more so the further south you go. Still, snow could come down kind of heavy at times, so travel Thursday night and early Friday could definitely be tricky.

Best guess is the eastern slopes of the south-central Green Mountains (think Mount Holly, Ludlow, Shrewsbury and Killington) will do best with the initial thump of snow. The places that will do worst, in terms of snow accumulation in the first phase of the storm, are valleys in southwest and southeast Vermont due to mixed precipitation. Also, the western slopes of the Green Mountains further north might not do great either. 

At this point, it looks like there might be a lull in precipitation Friday morning. This could be in the form of an ugly freezing drizzle in much of Vermont for awhile during the first half of Friday. 

Then, as an upper level low comes across northern New England during the day Friday, the freezing drizzle is expected to disappear in favor of more snow. It won't snow hard during the day Friday, but it could mess up travel.

For now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a winter weather advisory for areas of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley. In these areas, a decent snowfall of four to six inches of snow is still in the forecast, with maybe a bit more in some of the mountains.

In the Champlain Valley, the forecast, as of Wednesday evening, has the snow coming in too slow and too light to qualify for a winter weather advisory, but the snow will probably be enough late Thursday through Friday to make you want to take care on the roads. 

As I noted, there's not a lot of cold air available, so the snow will be fairly wet.  Expect a few power outages state wide, but this continues to look like it won't be an extreme event. Which is excellent. 

Note that this forecast can, and probably will change before we get to the event. Stay tuned for updates! 

Also, there seems to be a good chance of more possibly snowstorms on Sunday night and Monday, and the middle of next week. It's too soon to deal with those, so we'll just concentrate on this upcoming storm Thursday night and Friday.

Vermont Thursday Evening Storm Update: Still Icky Tonight, Still Few Question Marks

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has 
increased snow totals with this storm in northwestern
New York. Will they also need to upgrade expected
snowfall a little in northwestern Vermont for Friday?
Good question, and as of Thursday night, nobody
really has a good answer. 

 After an initial burst of snow earlier today, the weather settled into the mild-ish, gloomy and dark conditions we've become so accustomed to so far this month in Vermont. 

The snow didn't amount to much, but the real slug of precipitation is now on our doorstep. It's going to be an unpleasant night and Friday in the Green Mountain State.

Although the overall forecast hasn't changed much since this morning, I'm on the alert for some potential surprises Friday, especially in northwestern Vermont. 

Before we get to tomorrow morning, we need to deal with tonight.

 The main bulk of precipitation was just starting to enter southwestern Vermont as of 5 p.m. and will spread northeastward across the state pretty quickly this evening. This will be mostly rain and freezing rain in Vermont overnight. 

For the majority of us, this will be mainly a drenching, really cold but not quite freezing rain. Temperatures will stay in the mid 30s for most of us during most of the rain.  It won't be a nice night to be outdoors, that's for sure. 

Some areas are also due for a fair amount of freezing rain as well. It will be spotty, and mostly along and east of the Green Mountains. Like I said this morning, it will be a tricky night for driving. There will be random patches of freezing rain just about anywhere in the eastern half of Vermont, and you won't know exactly where they are when you're driving until you encounter them. 

The southeastern half of Vermont still looks like you might see a quick spike in temperatures well up into the 40s before dawn, and continuing into the first part of daylight. Enjoy the warmth, it won't last. 

The rain will come down fairly hard, and we're still expecting an inch or so of rain and/or melted ice. I don't see any real flooding to worry about, but hydroplaning on the highways, deep puddles on streets and other drainage issues might crop up. Main rivers will turn higher and faster, but won't actually flood.

FRIDAY

Here's where things get tricky, with a huge forecast bust potential

The one big change the National Weather Service office in South Burlington made was to upgrade the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in New York's St. Lawrence Valley. It looks like things will go over to snow pretty quickly there, and they'll probably end up with six to eight inches of snow out of this.

For those of you in Vermont are saying who cares about the St. Lawrence Valley, this upgrade raises questions for northwestern parts of the state. Will the cold air flood in earlier on Friday than expected? Will that mean more snow than the paltry one to three inches in the forecast.

I'm really not sure. The NWS South Burlington suggested in their forecast discussion that they might have to extend their winter storm warning further east in northern New York, but how far east, if they do? 

It's already looking like the changeover from a cold rain to snow will come earlier Friday than originally thought. The thinking earlier was we'd start getting into sleet and snow in the Champlain Valley during Friday afternoon.  It's beginning to look like it might come earlier, perhaps mid morning. If trends continue, it might even be earlier than that. If that happens, we'd have an unpleasant surprise for the morning commute.

We're not sure on that yet, but the further south and east you go in Vermont, the less chance of big snow and ice problems on Friday. My best guess is anything north and west of roughly a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line could have a challenging Friday, especially from mid-morning to evening.

It's not like there's going to be tons of snow, but with wet roads freezing, and snow falling, it won't be great. It's still safe to say the northwest will see one to four inches, with less and less the further southeast you go in Vermont. 

Everything will basically be over Friday night. 

The weekend forecast continues to be on the quiet side, but there are hints of minor surprises toward Sunday as well. Mostly in eastern Vermont. I'll get into that more in Friday morning's update.