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| The National Weather Service in South Burlington released this prediction map of ice accumulation from the upcoming storm. It definitely looks patchy with some areas of the Green Mountains looking nasty, while other areas escape the ice. |
An ugly mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will slop its way through Vermont today and tomorrow, leaving us with precious little snow accumulation but plenty of ice to keep you slip sliding away.
This is in some respects a tricky forecast, especially during Friday, so there might be a few surprises with this.
This won't by any means be a destructive storm, at least not in Vermont, but it will be annoying. Things were just starting to go downhill in the weather department after 8 a.m. this morning, but won't really get too bad until later this afternoon and/or evening.
A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, western Rutland County and a tiny sliver of far southeastern parts of the state. Freezing rain is expected in the advisory area this afternoon into early Friday.
That freezing rain will of course make roads really nasty. In a few spots, there might be enough ice to bring down a few branches and power lines. But the power outages won't be nearly as extensive as they were during those two giant storms in December.
Although there's no winter weather advisory in the Champlain Valley, things could still be kind of ugly, especially from roughly Burlington north.
Patchy snow was increasing a little this morning, but it won't amount to too much before noon. It could mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain or rain later this morning and afternoon, but won't come down heavily. It probably will be enough to create slick spots on the roads, but there's also suggestions in the data that there might be a lull in the precipitation during the first half of the afternoon.
Also, temperatures were also sneaking above freezing in some areas of the Champlain Valley by 9 a.m. today, so the effects in the Banana Belt won't be all that bad during the day today.
TONIGHT
The real burst of ickiness comes in as noted, this evening and lasts overnight. At this point, it looks like it will warm up just enough in the Champlain Valley to give us mostly a cold, miserable, soaking rain overnight. Temperatures would only be in the mid-30s during the bulk of this.
Along and east of the Green Mountains, the "warmer" air looks like it might have trouble breaking through. It will be balmy a few thousand feet overhead, so this will come down as rain, not snow. Temperatures on the ground will spend much of the night at or a little below freezing, so ice will build up.
But not everywhere east of the Greens. That's what makes this dangerous on the roads. You're cruising along, and in some spots the temperature will be above freezing. But in random spots as you go along, it'll be below freezing and the ice will take you by surprise.
Even in places where it's above freezing, untreated surfaces could be tricky, too. This includes the allegedly warmer Champlain Valley. It might be raining, and say, 34 degrees, but the pavement or concrete under foot might still be below freezing. So the rain would freeze on contact.
FRIDAY
This is where the forecast gets a little tricky. The center of the storm looks like it will track right over northwestern sections of the area. But a slight shift in the track could either cause more ice and snow, or less.
A brief squirt of warm air will rush northward east of the storm, bringing temperatures into the 40s or even near 50 for a short time to melt the ice.
But with the track of the storm close to, or over northwestern Vermont, how far north will that warm squirt of air get. And how fast will a cold front arrive to either reinforce or flush out the warm air?
The best guess this morning is the warm air will get as far north as a Middlebury to Island Pond line, but that is JUST a guess. Could be further north, could be a little further south.
In places like Burlington and probably Newport, if this scenario plays out as expected, it will probably be above freezing with rain as we start the day Friday. But temperatures would only be in the 30s, so they won't have far to drop before trouble arrives.
As the storm passes by and the cold front comes in, sleet and snow will arrive during the afternoon, and make a mess of the afternoon and evening commute. Depending upon how this shakes out, the National Weather Service in South Burlington might issue a new winter weather advisory for northwestern Vermont tomorrow afternoon for that sleet and snow.
Accumulations won't be all that exciting, maybe a couple inches, but wet roads that will freeze and become glazed with sleet and snow isn't exactly a recipe for smooth sailing driving home from school or work.
The further south and east you go, the longer it will take for the cold air to arrive, and the moisture will be diminishing during that time. So I imagine there will be less sleet and snow in the southeastern half of Vermont.
There is quite a bit of precipitation with this. Most of us will receive a good inch of rain and melted ice and snow. That won't be enough to cause flooding, really, especially since there's mixed precipitation involved. But I do expect to see areas of ponding on roads, minor flooding in poor drainage spots, and rises on rivers. The rivers won't flood, but will run rather high and fast.
After this mess goes by, it looks like we'll have a quiet and somewhat cold weekend. By cold, I mean normal by January standards. That means highs in the 20s, lows 5 to 12. Sunday looks like the sunnier of the two days
STORM ELSEWHERE
The same ugly storm here is sweeping a cold front through the Southeast, causing another severe storm outbreak from Mississippi to Georgia. There have already been a few tornado warnings and Mississippi this morning. Those storms will spread and probably intensify as the move across Alabama and much of Georgia today.
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