After Today's Snowstorm, A Complicated, Messy Vermont Forecast Rest Of Week

Preliminary snow totals from today's storm in Vermont.
Notice the stripe of heavier snow from Rutland to 
Orange counties. They over-performed, but
southeastern Vermont received somewhat 
less snow than earlier forecasts indicated. 

 Today's snow is over, except for some light snow showers in the mountains, but we're certainly not done with the complicated, active, wintry weather this week. 

The surprising part of the departing storm was that relatively narrow band of heavier snow from Rutland to Orange counties in Vermont. 

Within that band of heavier snow, the peak of it was an much narrower band of 10 to 11 inches extending along a string of towns starting in West Rutland, where my brother-in-law measured 11 inches. 

This band then went northeastward to Pittsford, Chittenden, Pittsfield, then on up to Braintree, Randolph, Newbury and Topsham, then on into northern New Hampshire. 

Power outages from the wet snow in southern Vermont remained near their peak for the day as of 5 p.m, with just under 10,000 homes and businesses still without power.

That situation should improve overnight, but I'm guessing not everybody will get power back until at least sometime tomorrow. And tomorrow might not be the nicest day ever. Let's take the week one day at a time. 

TUESDAY

The good news for people out and about is there won't be much snow. And what comes down will be scattered. The bad news is the timing of any bursts of snow will be terrible. 

In the heart of a band of particularly heavy
snow today in south-central Vermont,
my brother-in-law measured 11 inches
of snow in West Rutland. That's 
the second highest total I've seen
in Vermont from this storm, after 
11.5 inches near Braintree.

Snow showers could happen anywhere, at any time during Tuesday, but they shouldn't be enough to worry about. Until late afternoon or early evenings especially north. 

A cold front will come through around that time. The set up might be akin to summer thunderstorms. It helps in the summer to have some sunshine to help destabilize the air before a line of storms comes through. That set up makes the storms stronger.  

It'll be similar tomorrow. If the sun shines a fair amount midday, that'll help destabilize the air ahead of an approaching cold front. If that happens, we could get not thunderstorms, but some pretty good snow squalls. 

These would hit at about the time of the evening commute. Snow won't accumulate much, since snow squalls are so brief. But they'd cut visibility to zero for a short time on the highways, and the pavement will turn from dry and clear to snow covered and icy in a flash.

WEDNESDAY 

Quiet and a little colder with thickening clouds as the next storm approaches. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Overall, this is a pretty intense storm. It will cause trouble from Texas to southeastern Canada. We're included, as it appears we'll get messy here in the Green Mountain State. 

For starters, possibly strong tornadoes are possible near and a little south of Houston, Texas around midday. Then the tornadoes will spread along the immediate Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle in the evening. 

Meanwhile, a stripe of snow will develop from New Mexico, across northern Texas then through the mid-Mississippi Valley, then the southern Great Lakes, and eventually into our neck of the woods. But for us, it's more complicated than just snow. 

There's quite a few complications that make the Vermont storm forecast tricky. Since the storm is strong, high winds aloft could "shadow" western slopes of the Green Mountains from getting a lot of snow. Also, there's a risk of strong winds along the western slopes. It won't be nearly as bad as that blockbuster wind storm on December 23, but it is something to consider. 

It looks like there will be an initial thump of snow Wednesday night, which could accumulate to a few or several inches statewide, except perhaps those western slopes. Then we get into Thursday. 

THURSDAY

The forecast is still uncertain, but it looks like a push of warmer,  and somewhat drier air aloft will change everything over to a mix or possibly even rain in the toastiest valleys. The precipitation will be fairly light, and only last several hours, but it could be a mess. 

Precipitation will probably flip back to snow later in the day, but it's unclear how much any particular place will get. 

This forecast will need to be updates, with details added as we get closer to the event. 

BEYOND THAT

The long-advertised change in the weather pattern is ongoing. It's looking like we in Vermont will gradually shift to temperatures that start our warmer than average, then turn about normal, then perhaps a little colder than average in the final days of January and the beginning of February. 

Remarkably, it hasn't been below zero yet this winter around Burlington, Vermont. That could well change in the final days of January or early February. 

The weather pattern will remain active, with frequent chances of snow. But it doesn't look like we'll see anything huge for a few days after Thursday.