Icy Mess Looks Increasingly Likely In Vermont; Very Dangerous Weather West Coast, South

So much for record warmth.  Freezing rain seems destined
to cause at least a few problems in parts of 
Vermont this week. 

The forecast for the upcoming storm in Vermont keeps trending colder and colder. 

Where a few days ago we were anticipating more record high temperatures in the Green Mountain State, now we're looking at a potential icy hell. At least in some spots. 

The storm's warm front will not make it all the way through Vermont, so at least part of the state will be on the cold side of this system. Waves of low pressure will move along the warm front, keeping precipitation going on and off through Thursday. 

Warm air flowing up and over the warm front will ensure that it will be balmy aloft during this period. So instead of snow, we get freezing rain, rain, and sleet.

Temperatures will be pretty marginal through the period, so I, and forecasters in general, aren't sure whether there will be much freezing rain. And if there is, where it would hit hardest.

The most likely targets for ice would be in the northern Champlain Valley and colder valleys elsewhere in northern Vermont. The least likely places are in the southern third of Vermont.

The first wave of precipitation later today should be pretty light, and mostly plain rain. There might be a few pockets of freezing rain east of the Green Mountains this afternoon, and maybe tonight in the far northern Champlain Valley.

After a lull, things will pick back up later in the day Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning.  It's not known yet whether there will be a lot of ice in the north of Vermont, or whether it will be patchy and not much of a concern.

Worst case scenario is enough ice in the northern Champlain Valley would accumulate to create some tree and power line damage. Best case scenario is it stays mostly plain rain.  The best guess right now is something in between, with the risk of  slick road, and only isolated problems with trees.

This forecast WILL be fine-tuned as this goes along, so pay attention the next few days, especially if you have travel plans in Vermont.

This could be a bit on the dangerous side, but not nearly as some of the danger going on in other parts of the nation. 

DANGEROUS STORMS

California, the Southeast and parts of the Plains are having very rough, and at times life-threatening weather today and tomorrow.  California seems to be the worst. 

California:

Another atmospheric river is set to slam into northern and central California tomorrow and lasting into Thursday.

This one is wetter and windier than the atmospheric river that just caused havoc in California over the New Years holiday.

Rivers are high and soil is saturated, so this has the potential to be a lot worse than the New Year's storm. 

Meteorologists in the Bay Area are clearly worried about this storm.  Here's an excerpt from their forecast discussion last evening:

"To put it simply, this will likely be one of the most impactful systems on a widespread scale that this meteorologist has seen in a long while. The impacts will include widespread flooding, roads washing out, hillsides collapsing, trees down (potentially full groves), widespread power outages, immediate disruption to commerce, and worst of all, likely loss of human life. This is truly a brutal system that we are looking at and needs to be taken seriously."

Even when this California storm ends, they're not out of the woods. Other storms are lined up to hit this coming weekend and next week. 

Southeast

At least three confirmed tornadoes touched down in Louisiana and Tennessee yesterday. One of them, in Jonesboro, Louisiana, caused extensive damage to homes and other structures.

More tornadoes are possible today, especially in a broad stripe from near New Orleans to central Alabama. 

Possibly even worse is a flooding risk. Flash flood warnings were up this morning in a solid band from southern Arkansas to western Kentucky. 

The threat of dangerous flash floods will slowly shift south and east today. The greatest threats for life-threatening flash floods later on seem to be targeting central Alabama and western Georgia.

Plains

A big winter storm continues to hit places from Nebraska to Wisconsin, with up to 18 inches of snow. Freezing rain continues in parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota, where enough ice looks like it wants to accumulate to cause damage to trees and power lines.