Snow And Schmutz Storm Still Due To Harass Vermont Today Into Tomorrow

This morning's National Weather Service forecast map.
Hasn't changed much since yesterday. Orange areas 
get the most snow, eight or more inches. 

We're still gearing up for a rather messy storm, one that will harass anyone trying to drive anywhere between late this afternoon and later Thursday. 

Most of us here in Vermont should see a net gain in snow depth on the ground, but many of us will see a little sleet, freezing rain or even rain during the middle of the event. 

The overall forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday, but there are some subtle differences that will matter to us. 

TIMING

First of all, the timing of this storm is turning into an issue. It looks like it will come in a little earlier this afternoon than original forecasts indicated. That's a problem for many of you who drove to work or school this morning. 

Main roads were perfect this morning. Not so much later today. The snow is expected to begin in far southern Vermont early this afternoon, mid-afternoon around Rutland and Windsor counties and late afternoon in most of the rest of central and northern Vermont.   

Once the snow starts, it will ramp up quickly and come down hard. The snow is riding a surge of warm, moist air, and there's pretty cold air to the north. At least at first. That temperature contrast will force that surge of air to go up and over the cold air. That's a recipe for a quick thump of heavy snow, lasting a few hours. 

Since that burst of snow will start landing on pavement during the afternoon and evening commute, that's bad. It seems every time a storm is scheduled like this, you end up with long traffic jams on the interstates, lots of slide offs, and just general road chaos. 

If you can sneak out and get home before it starts snowing, that would be great. The fewer cars on the roads this afternoon and evening the better. I'm grateful I can get my errands done this morning out there, and stay put at home this afternoon and tonight. 

This initial thump of snow tonight will be the main part of any accumulations. The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains still look like they'll do best, with a half a foot to locally a foot of snow. The mountains will block moisture from the Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom, so those places should see just four to six inches of new snow.

ICE AND SCHMUTZ

Another big issue is this blast of warm air aloft is a little stronger than earlier forecasts indicated. Overnight and into Thursday morning there should be a mix of a little lingering snow, but also sleet, freezing rain and even areas of just plain, cold rain. 

Most of Vermont should get a thin glaze of sleet and 
freezing rain with this storm (yellow shading). I'm a
bit worried about the red shading in far southern
Vermont, which means the ice on already snow loaded
trees could contribute to power outages. 

Luckily, this precipitation won't come down really hard, as the best moisture will have passed us by when this mix happens. But most of us should see a bit of a glaze of ice on the snow, and this will also affect drive time Thursday morning. 

In terms of power outages, I'm worried mostly about southern Vermont. There's already a pretty good snow load on the trees. Additional snow will make it worse. And the most freezing rain in the state looks like it will happen in some of the mid and higher elevations of far southern Vermont. 

This could set the stage for more power outages. Which southern Vermont in particular has had quite enough of with storms over the past five weeks. 

Thursday morning will feature light mix, a little rain, fog and just general ugliness and gloom.

As that's happening, a secondary storm will form along the coast and take over. This one could cause some heavy rain and flooding in eastern New England, but not here in Vermont. 

While the storm develops and moves toward Canada, cooler air will be drawn southward, so everything changes to snow. It'll mostly be light stuff, but with falling temperatures, wet roads freezing and more snow being added, Thursday afternoon drive time won't be a picnic either. 

Most of us will only get an inch or two of snow out of this last gasp of the storm, though a good few to several inches could pile up in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

I'm not going to get into a forecast beyond Thursday night here, as this is quite enough. A bit of a spoiler though, is we will be in a colder, and still somewhat active weather pattern after this storm blows by.