Sunday Morning Update: Still Looking At A Southern Vermont Snow

Despite some forecast changes on how the expected
storm tonight will behave, the result is a wash,
with a decent snowfall in southern Vermont,
but not much in the Champlain Valley. 

 The overall forecast for the upcoming snowfall hasn't changed much, despite some differences in forecasts for how the storm is expected to behave. 

The projected track has inched south a little bit, which would limit snowfall a tad. But also, there seems to be just a wee bit more moisture and ability to wring out snowflakes, especially along and east of the Green Mountains.

 The result is a wash. Projected snow totals are pretty much the same as they were at this time yesterday.

Before we get into that, a lot of you might have noticed Saturday was disappointingly cloudy. There had been forecasts for some sun to brighten up the landscape as you enjoyed the fresh snow from Friday. 

One of those damn - and persistent - temperature inversions took away our sunshine again. There was a layer of the atmosphere that was slightly warmer at more or less 4,000 feet of elevation. That trapped moisture and clouds below the layer. It was sunny and gorgeous on some of the mountain summits yesterday. But that inversion and moisture hung tough, so it was another gloomy day for us on Saturday.

We've had a lot of those this month.

Anyway, it's still gray and overcast this morning, and there's even a couple of light snow flurries here and there. 

We won't see much sun today. Even if the low clouds erode, higher clouds will be coming in as the new storm approaches. 

That storm will zip through along the southern New England coast overnight and early Monday morning. 

Southern Vermont will be in the sweet spot for snow this time, with a quick thump of half a foot of snow or more in the two southernmost counties, where a winter storm warning is in effect. Snow could fall overnight at a rate of an inch per hour before it tapers off during the day Monday. 

Snow lovers in far southern Vermont valleys who missed out on the last storm should make up for it this time. 

Up into central Vermont, the National Weather Service is still expecting a decent four to seven inches of new snow in Rutland and Windsor counties. Along and east of the Green Mountains, most places, except right near the Canadian border are in play for three to six inches of snow. 

In the Champlain Valley, they're still forecasting one to three inches of new snow. But there could be a bust up by the Canadian border. I'm not sure, but places like Alburgh and Highgate and Swanton might get practically nothing. 

Timing wise, you're good to go during the day today if you need to drive somewhere. It really won't stat snowing until this evening. The heaviest snow will come down overnight and early Monday.

That means the Monday morning commute will be snowy and slow for a lot of us. It should be getting quite a bit better by Monday evening as the storm races off into the Atlantic Ocean.

For Vermont, this is only a midsized, typical snowfall for January. But it does eat away just a bit at the snow deficit we've built up in this so far warm winter. That's not to say it will stay warm. 

THE NEXT STORM

We still know there will be a new storm to keep us on our toes Wednesday night and Thursday. We still don't know who gets snow, who gets a mix, and now much of all that comes down. The Wednesday night storm so far looks stronger than the one coming through tonight, so that's something to watch. 

After that storm goes by the weather pattern trends colder and stays active. We won't necessarily have any big storms, but frequent chances of at least light snow will keep us busy into early February.