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| A storm surge pushes into Nome, Alaska earlier this year as a former typhoon raked much of the state. The Arctic is turning wetter, stormier, more fiery and less icy due to climate change. |
As the latest annual report on the Arctic tells us, though, those weather patterns might not dominate the top of the world just yet, they are increasingly become factors in a rapidly warming environment.
NOAA releases an Arctic report card every year. The latest publication, released last month, is the 17th annual summary of a vastly changing Arctic.
Some of the top takeaways from the latest report as quoted from the document:
"Arctic annual air temperatures from October 2021 to September 2022 were the sixth warmest dating back to 1900, continuing a decade-long trend in which Arctic air temperatures have warmed faster than the global average. The Arctic's seven warmest years since 1900 have been in the last seven years."
My take: Being the sixth warmest and not #1 is no big accomplishment. Earth has been in a La Nina pattern for three years now. That tends to cool the world a little bit. Sixth warmest isn't a great sign if we've been in a La Nina for so long.
"Arctic sea ice extent (coverage) was higher than many recent years, but much lower than the long-term average. Multiyear ice extent, sea ice thickness and volume rebounded after a near record low in 2021 but was below conditions in the 1980s and 1990s, with older ice extremely rare."
My take: I'm glad to hear Arctic sea ice rebounded somewhat. I bet that won't be a long term trend, even if the coming year has good ice, compared to recent years. You're going to get periods when ice rebounds, then melts away again. You want to see many years of increasing sea ice to breathe any kind of sigh of relief. A year or two tells you nothing.
"The 2021-2022 Arctic snow season saw a combination of above average snow accumulation but early snowmelt, consistent with long term trends of shortening snow seasons in several areas.
Wetter than normal conditions predominated over much of the Arctic from October 2021 to September 2022. Precipitation has increased significantly since the 1950s across all seasons and datasets. Heavy precipitation events are more common in the North Atlantic subarctic, while much of the central Arctic shows increases in consecutive wet days and decreases in consecutive dry days."
My take: No surprise there. A warmer world is in general a wetter world. Warmer air can hold more moisture. Given the right conditions, it can rain and snow a lot. The Arctic is still really dry compared to places, like, well, here in Vermont, but it is getting a lot wetter pretty fast on and near the roof of the world.
"The Greenland ice sheet lost ice in 2022, the 25th consecutive year of ice loss. In September, 2022, the Greenland ice sheet had unprecedented late season warming, creating surface melt conditions over 36 percent of the ice sheet on September 3, including the Greenland ice sheet's summit at 10,500 feet. This followed a July 18 large surface melt observed across 42 percent of the Greenland ice sheet surface."
My take: I'll be really surprised if there ever is another season in which the Greenland ice sheet actually expands over the course of a year. Decades ago, this happened pretty frequently. Not every year, but often enough.
On some years the net loss of Greenland ice won't be that much, relatively speaking. But I think we're going to see more years like 2012 which was a super melt year that still has scientists gasping.
By the way, the remnants of Hurricane Fiona, which trashed southeastern Canada in late September, moved on toward Greenland, causing a smaller, but still unprecedented late season melt.
The unseasonable melts are "challenging how researchers define the Greenland summer melt season," according to the report.
The earlier than usual snow melt, and this summer's hot dry conditions in interior Alaska contributed to major wildfires. By July, 2 million acres in Alaska had burned. Visibility at the Fairbanks airport was reduced on several days by smoke.
There's some geopolitical aspects to the melting Arctic as well. Shipping is increasing up there, which adds political, environmental and society effects to those living in the Arctic, and for governments competing for commerce on top of the world.
The annual Arctic report has been generally been getting more comprehensive and detailed as the years go by. This year's edition was compiled by 147 experts from 11 nations.
This year's model pays more attention to the indigenous population near the top of the world. Says NOAA:
"The 15th chapter of the report card, authored by a team that includes Native Alaskan scientists, describes how warming air temperatures, shrinking sea ice, shorter periods of snow cover, increased wildfire, rising levels of precipitation and changes in animal migration patterns and their abundance profoundly affect the safety, food security health, economic wellbeing and cultural traditions of indigenous people."
This chapter on how the changing Arctic is affecting indigenous people is pretty fascinating, and disturbing.
As the Washington Post reports:
"The sea ice retreat forces hunters to travel as far as 100 miles from their homes to find walruses during the spring harvest. The thinning of sea ice has also made seal hunting dangerous in some communities."
It takes longer for indigenous people to hunt, given the more challenging conditions. With a lack of sea ice, wave heights are higher, which makes hunting on the water more dangerous. People near the Bering and Chukchi seas are also seeing more die-offs of birds like ducks and puffins because of starvation and a lack of sea ice.
Although there are naturally yearly ups and downs in the Arctic, I don't see any evidence suggesting that climate change will slow its assault on the top of the world. In fact, few people would be surprised if it all accelerates.
Just remember: What goes on in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.
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