The First Truly Hard Core Winter Week Of The Season In Vermont Is Here

Just one of many forecast maps that show the Polar Vortex
right near us in southern Quebec at the end of the week.
This will create a brief, but intense Arctic blast in Vermont 

If you have been waiting for a true Vermont winter, this will be your week. 

Colder weather started last night. It will stay cold,  then colder, then ridiculous as the week wears on. By the time Friday and Saturday come along wind chills will be solidly in the 30s and 40s below. Temperatures might or might not get above zero Friday and Saturday afternoons. 

Friday night and Saturday morning, it will be in the teens below in the "banana belt" towns right near Lake Champlain and in some far southern Vermont towns. For pretty much everybody else, it will be in the 20s below. Actual temperature, not wind chill.

It might seem late to dig out your winter gear, but now's the time to do it.

Before we get there, the first half of week won't be too bad, at least not by Vermont standards. But the warm weather is gone. Though this will be the longest period we've had below freezing all winter. It dipped below 32 degrees last evening and will stay there for awhile. 

Wind chills this morning, actually are in the single numbers, so kind of cold. Roads might be icy in spots this morning, especially north, where a little wet snow fell, then froze yesterday. Up here in St. Albans, we collected 1.4 inches of slush, which then turned mainly to an icy snow cover once temperatures dropped.

More little disturbances in the atmosphere should touch off more light snow today and tonight. Most places will only see an inch or so of new snow, but the ski areas of northern Vermont are probably in for a good three or four inches. 

Today's little packet of snow will reinforce the gathering cold, so it will only make it into the upper teens for highs on Tuesday. That will make it the chilliest day since December 24 in Vermont. 

We'll get a false sense of security on Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures actually moderate to normal for this time of year - which means 20s for highs. Really not bad! 

Then the hammer hits.

ARCTIC BLAST

The polar vortex, that whirl of intensely cold Arctic air that pretty much always spins somewhere in the high latitudes in the winter, has spent pretty much this entire winter a safe distance from us here in Vermont. It's been way, way north and pretty compact, so that opened the door for mild Pacific air to make cross country trips to New England. 

Now, the polar vortex is stretched, and about to take a quick plunge, ending up way south, into southeastern Quebec by Friday. 

That is more than close enough to give us a taste of true Arctic  air. 

A cold front will blast through Thursday night with some good snow showers, and temperatures will take the plunge.

It will be a horrible Friday with actual temperatures holding in the low single numbers or even falling. Strong north winds will blast in, leading to those intense wind chills. 

Though the wind will relax somewhat Friday night, the temperatures will plunge to the minus 20s, as mentioned. 

 A cold snap of this intensity is also in one respect worse than other, similar ones we've had in the past. During most winters, we've usually gotten used to a few subzero mornings, so 20 below wouldn't seem like that much of a stretch. 

This year, it IS a stretch. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is already sounding the alarm about the fact that this will come as a shock, and we might be unprepared. In their forecast discussion this morning, the NWS wrote, "Extra caution will likely be needed to combat complacency built up through what has been an abnormally warm winter thus far."

One thing to worry about is cars and trucks haven't been put through the wringer yet this winter with intensely cold air. They break down easily in subzero temperatures. 

I expect to see a lot of cars disabled on the roads Friday through Saturday morning. Since tow truck operators might be busy, it could take awhile to get rescued if your car dies. 

This is a great time to stock your vehicle with extra blankets, clothes, high energy snacks and such. 

Also, make sure your gas tank is filled right before the cold hits. 

Check your home fuel supply now and get ahold of your dealer today if it's getting low. They'll have a lot of emergency calls during the cold snap, and might not get to you very fast if you run out. 

A frigid house with frozen water pipes is a terrible place to be. 

While you're at it, check on your elderly neighbors especially to see if they're stocked up and ready for this.  It probably isn't a bad idea to hit the grocery store between now and Thursday afternoon to stock up on supplies. Maybe stuff to make a hearty stew to have during the cold snap.

SHORT LIVED

In an earlier post, I mentioned this winter could be like 2007. That one started warm, then turned frigid for March and April. At this point, though, this winter is looking more like 2016.  It was a warm winter throughout, except for one, big Arctic blast in mid-February.

The Arctic cold that's coming Friday and Saturday is not going to stick around. The polar vortex will get swept east and north, kind of fall apart a bit, and start to reorganize well to the north again. 

By Sunday afternoon, we'll pop back up in the balmy 25-30 degree territory as it looks now. Long range forecasts call for normal or even above normal temperatures starting Sunday and going into mid-February.