Vermont Storm Has Arrived; Stay Home If You Can Tonight

As I write this shortly around 5 p.m. Wednesday, snow is ramping up as expected across Vermont. 

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam along 
Interstate 89 in Colchester at around 5:20 p.ml shows
traffic backing up due to slide offs and accidents.
Snow is expected to intensify further this evening. 

There was an interesting little band of snow that formed over northern Vermont late this afternoon. There was a pretty steep contrast between temperatures along the Canadian border compared to along Route 2 a little to the south. This was essentially a mini warm front that touched off an initial burst of snow. 

The main show at around 4:30 p.m. was in southern Vermont and advancing north pretty fast. Honestly, I hope you're home by now, as road conditions are deteriorating pretty quickly. Even ahead of this intense band of snow we have plenty of reports of traffic crashes. 

The heaviest burst of snow will probably come between now and midnight, with the later version the further north you go.

It seems like in general, the forecasted warm push of air keeps getting a little stronger. Compared to this morning's forecast, it looks like there will be a little less snow than originally predicted in southern and central Vermont, and perhaps a bit more than earlier predicted in far northern Vermont. The bad news is that means there will probably be a little more ice accumulating in central Vermont than originally thought.

The National Weather Service is still going with a dump of six to 12 inches up the spine of the Green Mountains, and along the eastern slopes. 

In the Northeast Kingdom, Champlain Valley, and the valleys of western Vermont, forecasters are still expecting three to seven inches of snow, with the least in low elevations of southwest Vermont. 

I suppose this is a fairness issue of sorts? Areas of far northern Vermont that missed out on the bulk o the last two storms will partly make up for that with somewhat heavier snow totals tonight. 

As of 4:30 p.m., the snow was falling only lightly to moderately in most of the state, but for a couple or few hours, it will really come down hard this evening. It'll snow at a rate of  one an to two inches per hour in many places, which is too fast for our crack team of state snow plow drivers to keep up with. Stay home. It's really not worth going out there tonight. 

That's especially true as we get into later tonight. Schmutz, in the form of sleet and freezing rain, will also come down heavily for a time tonight, especially south and central. 

The bulk of this storm will be within this initial big thump of snow, ice and rain this evening and tonight. There has been thundersnow in places from Indiana to southern Ontario. I doubt we will see thundersnow in Vermont, but the chances of it happening are not zero this evening.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has 
slightly reduced expected snow accumulation in Vermont
tonight and tomorrow because more of a mix is expected.
Snowfall totals in the northern Champlain Valley 
have increased a little bit. 

Speaking of electricity, I can't guarantee your power will stay on tonight. Between the existing snow loads on trees, the fact that the snow will keep getting wetter and heavier as the night goes on, and then it will go over to sleet and freezing rain, that's not a great recipe for the power lines.

The strongest risk for overnight power outages is in southern and central Vermont, especially along and near the east slopes of the Greens. Winds overnight could get pretty gusty on the west slopes of the Green Mountains as well, which would expand the problem. 

Green Mountain Power tweeted: "Stay safe #vt! We are prepared for the difficult forecast. With some areas having wet snow on trees, there could be potential for damage. Crews will response as soon as safely possible!" 

A dry punch of air aloft between say, 2 and 10 a.m. Thursday will make the precipitation spottier, lighter, but still annoying. Anything that comes down will be a mix of sleet, freezing rain or a cold, non-freezing rain.

That won't last long. The atmosphere over us will cool off as the day wears on, so anything that comes out of the sky during the afternoon will be snow. It looks like the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, and parts of the Northeast Kingdom, should receive a few inches of snow out of that little backlash.

Most of the Champlain Valley should receive maybe an inch or two of additional snowfall. Temperature will slump back below freezing in the afternoon and evening, so slush and water on the roads and sidewalks will freeze.

Expect another round of busy hospital emergency rooms as ice underfoot will lead to plenty of people falling and hurting themselves.

Winds from the northwest will turn gusty Thursday afternoon and evening, too. So yeah, Thursday looks like a miserable winter day.

In the warmer valleys of Vermont, it hasn't gotten below zero yet this winter. That might or might not change in the coming week. Stay tuned!