Quick Monday Update: Cold Today, Still Messy Vermont Tuesday/Wednesday

The sun was out as a fairly heavy snow shower approached
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday afternoon. The snow 
shower was brief and left only a dusting of 
snow on the ground. 

UPDATE 5 PM TUESDAY

Winter weather advisories have been posted for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for areas of Vermont and New York outside the Champlain Valley.

We should see enough snow and mixed precipitation in those areas to really slicken up the roads over Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

The Champlain Valley is also in line for some snow and mixed precipitation, but that will fairly quickly change over to rain late Tuesday night or very early 

Wednesday morning, at least as it looks now. 

There still might be some icky roads in spots even in the Champlain Valley through early Wednesday, so be careful. I'd still advise postponing road trips to later Wednesday morning or afternoon. By then, almost everybody will be just seeing plain rain, and it will be tapering off slowly during the afternoon. 

By the way, this same storm system appears to be creating a tornado outbreak in Louisiana and Mississippi this evening.  There's been very little severe weather in the South this autumn. However, when there's an El Nino, severe weather outbreaks become common in the South. Let's hope tonight's dangerous weather down there is not the start of a trend. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 I'll just to a quick update today on the upcoming Vermont messy weather, with a lot more details to come in a post tomorrow morning. 

First of all, Sunday was classic Vermont November, wasn't it? The sun would come out, then we'd get a snow shower, more sun, then more snow. With blustery northwest winds blowing the entire time.

A few of Sunday's  snow showers were relatively heavy. Not snow squalls, but enough to leave a dusting of snow in many spots. 

 Snow showers continued mostly in the northern third of Vermont overnight, so there might be some slick spots this Monday morning on the roads.

 It looked like the snow is probably accumulating a little along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains early this morning.  

Eventually, today will be cold and dry as previously advertised. The bad stuff comes in Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

I think this will be one of those situations where we'll be telling you right through the event to expect the unexpected.

Broadly, we know snow Tuesday night will mix with and change to sleet, freezing rain and then rain overnight and Wednesday.

When and where the changeover happens will always be tricky. Even during the storm Wednesday morning things will probably be changing quickly from one hazard to another.  The timing of any changeovers will depend on location, and especially elevation. 

I'm guessing the "safest" place early Wednesday will be the Champlain Valley, but even there, roads will probably have their winter issues. 

This won't be a tremendously big storm. But of course those smaller storms are often the ones to watch out for.  It lulls people into thinking it's not that bad out - until they hit that patch of ice. 

At this point snow accumulations will probably be a dusting to four inches. There will be light accumulations of ice here and there. Total precipitation - rain and melted snow and ice, looks to be a moderate third to a half inch, maybe a little more in southern Vermont. 

I'm sticking to what I said yesterday. If you need to travel somewhere on Wednesday, the best bet is to delay it to later in the morning or afternoon.  By then, you're more likely to encounter just rain instead of snow and ice. 

Quiet weather is still in the cards for Thanksgiving Day.