Another Close But No Cigar Shot At Real Snow Here In Vermont

The snow forecast from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington for tonight and Monday is 
looking pretty paltry as warm-ish air will keep things
as mostly rain in the valleys. 

 Yet another modest storm is on Vermont's doorstep for tonight and Monday. But as it looks now, this one will bring little snow to the Green Mountain State, but provide a cold rain for many. 

It's a case of the weather systems almost getting their act together to give us a big dump of snow but not quite. 

There is a coastal low - a developing nor'easter  - at play. Yay for snow lovers, right? Those tend to give us decent early snowstorms this time of year. 

Not this time, folks. The storm will probably take somewhat of an inland track through Rhode Island or Connecticut, then eastern Massachusetts and coastal Maine. 

That path would bring a will bring a little warm air northward, which would cut down on snow totals,

More importantly with this event, there's another storm north of the Great Lakes that will block cold air from feeding into the coastal storm, so we in Vermont will probably be too warm for any heavy snows.

That said, temperatures are marginal, so it's always possible the mountains could get more snow than forecast.

Right now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us mixed snow and rain will move in early tonight in the valleys then change to a plain, cold rain with little if any accumulation Up around 1,500 feet, you might get one or two inches. Summits might see three to five inches. But even up there, it might go over to rain for awhile.

That said, if temperatures turn out to be a degree or two colder than forecast, then snow totals in many areas might surprise some people. It doesn't look like it's in the cards now, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

Even then, this won't be any kind of blockbuster as over all precipitation amounts should be light. Rain and melted snow will probably amount to only a quarter to a half inch, with maybe a little more than that in southeastern Vermont. 

It may be sort of semi-winter outside, but our hibiscus
tree that we brought indoors for the winter last month is
still cranking out tons of springlike blooms, Brightens
up the house a little during the dark days of late November,

Once the coastal storm gets by us Monday afternoon and the storm north of the Great Lakes moves east, the floodgates will open for the colder air to blast into Vermont.

 But by then, the deeper moisture will have passed us by, leaving us with just snow showers, with maybe a bit of additional accumulation in the mountains Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 

Northwest winds will be gusty by Monday afternoon as temperatures start to fall, That will leave us with typical blustery, cloudy late November weather with a few snowflakes in the air through maybe Wednesday. 

Also in the close but not cigar lane with this storm, areas relatively close to Vermont will see their share of snow and winter weather, 

 Northern New Hampshire is under a winter weather advisory for one to three inches of snow in the valleys and six inches above 1,500 feet. 

The cold winds behind the storm will also produce the first big lake effect snows of the season off of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.  Up to 15 inches of snow is in the forecast from these south of Buffalo, New York, and 20 or more inches in the Tug Hill Plateau snow belt east of Lake Ontario. 

I like to get away and travel every once in awhile, but it always stings a bit when I'm out of Vermont and I miss a big weather event, like the epic pre-Christmas wind storm last December.

I'm greatly looking forward to another trip away from Vermont that starts Tuesday, and it looks like I will only miss out on bland early December weather.  I will of course be occasionally posting while I'm away from a temporary location I will announce soon.