An Ominous Climate Threshold Was Reached Last Friday

Red line is shows how far daily temperatures on Earth
were above the pre-industrial average so far this year.
At the end you can see us hit 2 degrees Celsius
above that historic average. The squiggles below
the red line are all the other years since the 1940s.
Click on the chart to make it bigger and easier to see.

 Last Friday, November 17, was the mildest day of the month here in Vermont.

It certainly didn't set any records for warmth, but it was a nice balmy interlude in what has been a somewhat chilly month. 

Worldwide, though, November 17 was an ominously warm day. For the first time, sensitive instruments saw that the day was 2.07 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 average for Earth. 

It was the first known day that global warmth was more than two degrees Celsius above that largely pre-industrial average.

It also appears as if last Saturday was also 2 degrees Celsius above the what normal was 150 or so years ago. 

The reason all this is disconcerting is because the established goal is to keep Earth's temperature from exceeding 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. So you can see how climate scientists are really bummed about last Friday. 

It was only one day, of course.  We're back below the 2 degree departure from normal, but we as a planet are still running very hot. 

As CNN reports: 

"The threshold was crossed just temporarily, and does not mean that the world is at a permanent state of warming above 2 degrees, but it is a symptom of a planet getting steadily hotter and hotter, and moving towards a longer-term situation where climate crisis impacts will be difficult - in some cases impossible - to reverse."

We are also experiencing an El Nino. That is boosting Earth's temperatures even beyond what climate change has done. It's a one-two punch, causing this year, and probably next to reach record highs for the entire world. Already, each month June through October were the world's warmest on record, and it's beginning to look like November will do the same. 

When El Nino ends, the world will cool off a little. Probably to a point near or even a little below that 1.5 degree danger threshold. That will be temporary, and the world will keep heating up and stay past that 1.5 degree goal. 

The U.N. and other policy makers had made it a policy to try and keep the world from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The scientists said humans and ecosystems would struggle to adapt to that much warming. 

We are apparently already in that struggle. Also, as CNN reports, projections indicate we will fall far short of limits to fossil fuel emissions that would keep the world's temperatures cooler than 2 degree Celsius warming scientists say we should avoid. 

Current projections are that we will be consistently 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-Industrial Age next decade, and 2 degrees above that level in the 2040s and 2050s. However, some scientists are worried climate change is accelerating, and those warm temperatures could come sooner.