Thursday Morning Vermont Update: Cool, Rain South, Big Time Dry North

This morning's radar, shown at around 7:30 a.m. makes it
look like a lot of rain is falling. But most of it
in central and northern Vermont is evaporating
before it hits the ground, and that state of
affairs should continue all day. The yellow and
dark green in southern Vermont is rain steadily
falling and that should continue all day as well.

 If you looked at weather radar this morning, it seems like it's a really rainy Thursday in Vermont. It's not. 

Sure, a soggy weather system is approaching, but it will pass through our south. Very dry air is streaming in from Canada. 

That dry air is evaporating most of the rain that was trying to fall in central and northern Vermont.

The result will be a cloudy, cool day north, and a rainy day south. 

Not all the rain was evaporating north. Narrow ares of sprinkles were  making it to the ground, which is a bit of a surprise. 

So practically anyone in Vermont might see at least some raindrops here and there today. 

The only substantial rain, though, will hit along and south of Route 4. It looks like there will be a sharp gradient between light rain and heavier stuff. 

Near Rutland and White River Junction, the National Weather Service was calling for only a tenth of an inch of rain or so. (Though morning radar images suggested they might get a little more than that. 

Drive less than an hour or so south down Interstate 91 or Route 7 from Route 4, and soon you could really hit some soakers as you approach Bennington or Brattleboro. Places near the Massachusetts border, especially high elevations like Wilmington, Readsboro and Marlboro, could see up to an inch of rain.

Although we could have used a soaking rain, Vermont is lucky this storm is not going right over us. Those in its direct path - the Mid Atlantic States and areas as far north as Connecticut, are under flood watches today. 

New Jersey, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania - areas that have already dealt with a lot of flash flooding this summer -  are particularly in trouble today.     

We're talking inches of rain in many of those spots, Some pinpoint areas could see as much as five or six or even more inches of rain, which would cause catastrophic flooding in a highly populated part of the nation.

I guess our national Summer of Floods is continuing. Thankfully not here in Vermont, at least for the time being.

DRY VERMONT WEEKEND

Here in Vermont, after today, we're still expecting the longest dry spell since last September.  We also have an excellent chance of breaking the streak of 32 consecutive weekends with at least a little precipitation  - at least as measured in Burlington.   

National Weather Service rain forecast has nothing in
central and northern Vermont to near an inch near
the Massachusetts border. 

According to one chart from the National Weather Service,  the percent chance of rain this weekend in Burlington gets no higher than 2 percent.  

Those are pretty damn good odds of dry weather. (Though the way this year is going, I almost wouldn't be surprised if it rains from a clear blue sky).

The annoying humidity we've had for at least a week  has been finally be flushed out, too, and it's not coming back for several days at least. 

Which means we have a Chamber of Commerce weather weekend coming up. Lingering clouds in southern Vermont should start to clear Friday. Elsewhere, it's sunshine Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

I'd scheduled the hike and other physical activity on Friday and maybe Saturday as those days will be cooler.  Highs should be in the 70s both days, with a few low 80s Saturday in the warmer valleys. 

Then do the beach and boat day Sunday, as highs get right up there into the 80s. Despite Sunday's warmth, the humidity should stay low, which will make the days all the more pleasant. 

Low humidity also means temperatures tend to fall off quickly after sunset.  Saturday morning should be the coolest, with sunrise temporaries in the 40s for most of us. Warmer spots in the Champlain Valley would be in the low 50s. The coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and New York's Adirondacks. could see some upper 30s.

The only negative I see in the weekend forecast is some wildfire smoke from Canada. It won't be as thick as it was last Saturday, which brought us some of the worst air pollution on record in Vermont. This time, the smoke might create some light haze, with air quality being so-so, and not particularly dangerous. We hope. 

NEXT RAIN?

Strong high pressure over northern New England and Quebec will be in no hurry to leave. That will keep us warm, with relatively low humidity until about midweek. 

There's mixed signals for the prospects for rain in the middle or end of next week. Some models keep high pressure strong over Quebec and just off the New England coast, which would deflect showers and thunderstorms away from us. 

Other models allow moisture to come up from the Mid-Atlantic states, which would allow a fair number of showers and thunderstorms to blossom toward Wednesday or Thursday. 

Either way, it doesn't look like any kind of real soaker. But that's a week away. Things could change. 

There are signs that the dry high pressure could eventually go offshore and merge with the famous summertime Bermuda High, which opens up a chance at another hot spell beginning in about a week. We're not sure yet, but the long range forecasts so far are leaning that way. 

"Upside Down" Weird Storm In Northeast Now Straightening Itself Out; Vermont Gets Just Light Stuff

Satellite photo from Friday afternoon. Click on image
to make it bigger and easier to see. Center of
upper level low pressure seen as swirl in central
New York. Thick clouds there and to its south and
west were dropping snow. to the north in
Vermont and New Hampshire, breaks in the 
clouds and warm east breezes made for
pleasant weather for late November, Odd day.

 Friday was certainly a weird weather day here in the Northeast.  

A winter storm that proved even snowier and then expected hit places like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, southwest New York, Maryland and West Virginia with widespread snow. Some of it amounting to a foot or so in the high spots.

Even low elevations in that region shared in Friday's snowy experience. A dusting to three inches coated many places from western Connecticut to Maryland

One area of mountainous West Virginia went under the state's first blizzard warning since 2012. Video of the West Virginia blizzard showed drifts, near zero visibility and powerful winds. 

If that region had such a bout of wintry weather, you'd think we in Vermont would really be embracing winter, right?

As you probably know, that didn't happen. Friday was quite a nice day for late November, especially in northern and central Vermont. 

It got partly sunny, with really strikingly pretty clouds gracing the skies as temperatures in some areas in northern Vermont reached the low 50s. 

So yeah, things really were upside down. 

The culprit for this upside down weather was that strong upper level storm that pulled in surface low pressure into the Mid-Atlantic. The very cold pool of air aloft associated with that upper level low created lift in the atmosphere to create precipitation. The cold pool provided more than enough chill for snow.

So, points well south of Vermont had their first real bout of winter weather oddly before Vermont could do the same.

East winds north of that upper low pulled mild air from the Atlantic Ocean inland to northern New England. A wedge of dry air caught up in that flow was able to partly clear the skies, even if there were a few showers mixed in with the sunshine. 

So not only was it relatively mild and pleasant, some very nice rainbows got into the mix across northern Vermont too. 

THE NICE ENDS

Now, welcome back to reality. 

While the Mid-Atlantic States warm up slightly - enough to start melting that snow - Vermont finally gets a chance to cool down toward a belated start of winter. 

It will be an uneven path to winter over the next several days, but we'll get there. 

Today

As expected, more moisture from a new storm has been pulled westward all the way into Vermont and eastern New York, so there was some rain and snow out there this morning. 

While points well south of Vermont dealt with snow
Friday, we hear in St. Albans had patches of blue
sky, pretty clouds and mild temperatures.

Precipitation isn't turning out to be as consistent as initially forecast, so many of us won't get all much rain today. Perhaps a quarter inch or less. Mostly less. 

Light rain will be pretty widespread in the valleys the first half of today, with the steadiest precipitation in northeastern Vermont. Which is good, since that region got cheated out of Thursday's rain.

The atmosphere is cooling, so snow levels were declining in elevation this morning. As of 7 a.m, traffic cams at high elevation roads like Route 17 in Buels Gore, Route 302 in Topsham and Route 242 in Westfield were showing snow on the ground.

I think a lot of places at elevations of 1,000 feet or more will see snowflakes, but don't expect much accumulation. Possibly a few inches near the summits of the central and northern Green Mountains.

Sunday

Sunday is still looking like a classic, blustery late November day.  Daytime temperatures will only be in the 30s, maybe low 40s in southern Vermont valleys. Northwest winds gusting past 30 mph in many areas will add to the chill.

There won't be much sun, if any, and scattered cold rain and snow showers will still be around. The central and northern Green Mountains look like they might see a few more inches of snow. 

Upcoming week

A modest storm is still due to come through Monday night and Tuesday. After a generally fair, cool Monday, enough warm air will come in to make most of this little storm come in the form of rain. 

A little snow might enter the picture again, especially in high elevations and when the precipitation winds down Tuesday night. There might even be a dusting in the valleys by Wednesday morning if things work out the way forecaster think it might. 

After a quiet, cold Thanksgiving, there's big question marks for the end of the week, for Black Friday fun. 

Some computer models bring a mid-size snowstorm through Vermont, other models depict a swing and a miss, with the storm going too far south to give us much of anything. I guess we'll find out eventually. 

Whatever happens, it looks like the cold wintry air that should arrive by the middle of the upcoming week should last a long time, at least through the first week of December and quite possibly beyond.

Looks like winter is finally on Vermont's doorsteps, folks! 

Ghost Of Ian Prevents Some Frost, Causes Coastal Trouble

A squiggly jet contrail through high clouds moving
into northwestern Vermont late Monday afternoon. The 
clouds were from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, which
is still causing coastal flooding in the Mid-Atlantic

 Hurricane Ian, after destroying parts of Florida and damaging the Carolinas last week, finally dissipated last weekend.  

Or not. It's certainly not a hurricane or tropical storm anymore, but its remnants are still causing trouble. And giving some of us here in Vermont a break from the frost and freezes.

Energy from Ian spawned a storm that has been sitting and spinning south of Long Island.  The combination of this storm and strong high pressure to the north has been creating strong and persistent east winds in places like New Jersey and Delaware.   That has led to quite a bit of coastal flooding. 

The flooding isn't nearly as bad as Ian's devastating surge in southwestern Florida. But it's still significant. Jersey Shore communities like Atlantic City, Wildwood, Ocean City and others had people trapped in their homes by high water.  Cars conked out in deep water on flooded streets

Video also showed widespread coastal flooding around Ocean City, Maryland. 

Because that storm is stalled, the flooding has been coming in multiple high tide cycles. That should continue at least through today. Coastal flood warnings and advisories remain in effect, in some places through tomorrow, on Long Island, and in New Jersey and Delaware.

Relentless rains have also plagued the Mid-Atlantic States since Friday. Some areas have had as much as seven inches of rain.  The fact that the rain came over several days and not in a few hours has prevented major river flooding so far.

Up here in Vermont, the storm spread a shield of high clouds over much of the state, preventing a second night of frosts in central and southern Vermont.  Temperatures south of Route 2 early this morning were in the mid 30s to low 40s.  Far northern areas had clearer skies, so frost and freezes were widespread again. 

Here in St. Albans, I escaped the frost, as temperatures remained just barely warm enough to prevent it. 

The high clouds from that stalled storm will continue to spill into Vermont from time to time through tomorrow.  The clouds are thicker in southern Vermont, closer to the storm. There's even been a few sprinkles south of Route 4. 

Except for that, the weather should stay pleasant and benign in Vermont until Friday, when a sharp cold front is likely to cause another plunge in temperatures. 

Storms That Clip: Sunday's Got Far NW Vermont, Today's Just Misses New England, Then Friday?

Alburgh, in far northwestern Vermont, often misses out on
snowstorms, but was the big winner in Sunday's as this
AOT web cam of Route 78 shows. 

It didn't snow all that much in Vermont Sunday, except in the far northwest corner of the state.

That is pretty much in line with previous forecasts.  The far northwest got about as much snow as previously anticipated, while the rest of Vermont got if anything, a little less than forecast. 

Still, perusing the list of snow totals the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued this morning, the forecast was pretty much spot on. 

The big winner was Alburgh, in the extreme northwest corner of Vermont with six inches. St. Albans, Swanton and South Hero saw five inches. 

Practically everybody else was under three inches. The official total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was 2.4 inches. 

We also got to enjoy some true winter air in Vermont this morning, as it was the coldest so far this winter season. Nothing extreme for the North Country, but many of the colder areas got below zero.

The next storm isn't affecting Vermont, but is creating quite a turnaround in the weather in the South and Mid-Atlantic states.

Places in Mississippi and Alabama that had record highs in the 80s Saturday saw snow and slippery roads Sunday. Tornado warnings were in effect around Huntsville, Alabama Saturday and two twisters touched down. Sunday night, they had an inch or two of snow. A winter storm warning was up for extreme northern Georgia this morning.

The Mid-Atlantic states are now getting pounded. Washington DC is getting pounded and can expect up to eight inches of snow today. It was 63 degrees in Washington DC just yesterday. 

Coastal Delaware, where I enjoyed a pleasant vacation the other day with temperatures near 60 degrees, is expecting 6 to 12 inches of snow and possibly damaging coastal flooding today.  This is a powerhouse, quick hitting storm with a lot of wind, a huge burst of precipitation and a lot of energy.  

However. I'm still in Frederick, Maryland this morning, just 50 miles northwest of Washington DC. I've only seen a few flurries here as of 9 a.m. We'll probably only get a couple inches of snow here. 

As heavy snow hit Washington DC this morning, it was barely
flurries in Frederick, Maryland, just 50 miles to the 
northwest of the Capital. 

That sharp cut of in the snow in Maryland hints at what's going on. This storm is heading northeast, out to sea later today.  

It's going to blow up to be a pretty monstrous storm, but will barely graze southeastern New England. It won't affect Vermont at all. 

Dry air to the north of the storm is creating that sharp cut off from big storm to nada, south to north. That's another factor keeping Vermont from seeing anything out of this.

So a whiff there for us.  

After that, there's still hints of a new nor'easter around Friday, but its future is also pretty uncertain. 

The American model puts the storm far enough offshore so that the storm would have little effect on Vermont. The European model gives us Vermont a solid snowfall, especially south and east.  The British model is somewhere in between the American and European, notes the National Weather Service in South Burlington in their forecast discussion. 

Beyond that, we seem to be ready to enter a cold, mostly dry and rather boring in my opinion weather pattern through the middle of the month.  We'll see how that works out! 

Vermont Will Share In The Snowfall After All, Even If We're Late To The Party

Here's kind of a first stab at snowfall predictions from 
the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
Most of us should get at least six inches of snow
out of this storm. As usual, mountains 
likely to get the most snow. 

As expected, that wide-ranging snowstorm stretching from Illinois to - eventually - New England - is in full force.  And now it looks like Vermont will share in the fun. 

A winter storm watch is up for the entire Green Mountain state, extending into eastern New York.  The watch starts at around sunset Monday and extends through Wednesday morning. This issue will last a pretty long time, as storms go.

It's also a really complicated one, as the pieces that are coming together in the upper atmosphere to create this snowfall are really messy. 

Which means the usual caveat applies, writ large, expect surprises with this. The current forecast pretty much calls for four to 10 inches out of this, depending upon where you are in Vermont.  

I'm sure a few places will end up with more than that, and a few other places will have less than this forecast. 

The only aspect of this storm I'm quite sure about is we won't have to worry about mixed precipitation here in Vermont. We'll just get snow. Easy-peasy in that regard. 

This is a sprawling, slow moving storm, which means most people affected by it will have to live with it for a couple days. This morning, it was snowing from Minnesota all the way to Washington DC. A foot of snow is likely to fall in many places in this vast area.

Usually, when a storm comes in from the west, it will re-form into a single new storm that turns into a nor'easter. That new storm usually plows toward New England and you get a day of heavy precipitation and wind up into the region. Then it ends pretty quickly 

The current setup, as I said, is messy, so you're going to get a few storm centers trying to form somewhere in the Northeast or off the coast, and it's hard to tell which will be the dominate one. 

This means storminess will definitely happen, but who gets hit the hardest is a question. It also means this will last awhile. It'll be later Wednesday before most of New England is really out of rough weather. 

VERMONT SPECIFICS

Like I said in the headline, Vermont is going to be late to the snow party.  Cold high pressure and its dry air will initially fend off this storm. 

The cold air brought the first subzero reading of the season to Burlington late Saturday evening - making it one of the latest first zeros of the season on record - but not THE latest.

It eventually got down to 6 below in Burlington. It was as cold as 24 below in Island Pond and minus 15 in Montpelier, so this was the coldest spell of the winter so far. 

Predicted snowfall with the storm throughout the 
Northeast, showing how widespread this will be.
Everything in pink is roughly 10 inches or 
more of snow. 

We'll stay cold and generally sunny today. Another clear night in northern Vermont will drop temperatures below zero again.

Meanwhile, clouds will finally start to creep in from the south late tonight and through the day tomorrow as the storminess finally tries to work in from the south. 

The way it looks now, a band of warmer air and lift aloft will come in southeast to northwest in Vermont late Monday night and the first half of Tuesday, which would bring us our biggest thump of snow from this storm. Snow could come down quite hard at times during this initial part of the storm. 

The eastern slopes of the Green Mountains will make out the best from this initial burst, and, if predictions hold, pretty much everyone will have a lousy, snowy commute Tuesday morning. 

I think there might be a lull after this initial thump of heavier snow comes through.  Then, the messy mass of storminess will work northward, roughly centered just off the New England coast. Moisture will wrap around to the north of the storm, through Maine and New Hampshire and southern Quebec and back down on Vermont.

This would favor more snow Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning mostly in northern Vermont. This is especially true along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains.  Most of northern Vermont as a whole, including the Champlain Valley north of Burlington has the potential to do pretty well with snow with this setup.

Overall, the trend since yesterday has been to bring the coastal storm or storms a little further west than initial projections, which is why we now have the expectations for snow in Vermont. 

It'll get windy with this thing, especially later Tuesday through Wednesday, so expect a lot of blowing and drifting snow, even after the heaviest precipitation tapers off. 

I regard this storm as kind of weird, so I expect more surprises than usual from a mid-winter snowstorm. Definitely stay tuned for updates and adjustments from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, and the other fine Vermont meteorologists keeping tabs on this storm. 

THE STORM ELSEWHERE

This storm is going to be really in the news for the next couple days, because it's lasting so long, and hitting highly populated areas. And hitting in areas that are basically media centers - Washington and New York. 

It will be disruptive.  More than a foot of snow is a good bet in the New York City area, western New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York all the way up to Albany and western and central New England. A few areas in here could approach two feet of new snow.

It will be very windy, so near blizzard conditions could easily set up in and near New York City Monday and Monday night. 

Bottom line: Don't travel to southern New England, New York and the Mid-Atlantic states for the next two or three days. Ain't worth it. 

Some pretty substantial coastal flooding with storm surges, splash over waves and high winds will hit the Jersey Shore, Long Island and maybe New England.

There will be some pretty wild stories, photos and videos of this storm, I'm betting.  As I keep saying, stay tuned! 

Nor'easter Week: Mid-Atlantic Targeted; Vermont Still Sitting It Out

Here's what the meteorologists at CBS think will happen
with the storm. Perhaps two feet or more in parts of Pennslyvania,
New Jersey and southern New York. Forecasts are still
varying somewhat, though.

 The forecast for that anticipated big nor'easter hasn't changed much since yesterday.  

A big dump in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, the New York City metro area and probably southern New England, and nothing much here in Vermont.

The devil will be in the details, but this could easily be the biggest snowstorm in years in some of the hardest hit areas.  

What makes everybody confident about this storm happening is the fact that all the computer models have been insistent on this storm since Saturday. That's an unusual consensus for that many days ahead of the actual storm. 

The storm will be moving along at a decent clip, so the snow that those areas get will come down torrentially. 

Already, winter storm watches are up for parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and northern Virginia.  Don't travel to those areas Wednesday and Thursday. It's going to be a real mess. It looks like the Interstate 95 corridor will be really nasty. 

There are questions  about how close to the coast the snow will get. The immediate coastline in these areas might be more wet than white, but that's still a question mark as it's a couple days out from the storm yet. 

This storm will disproportionately be in the news, too, since it's hitting the major media centers of New York and maybe Washington DC.   Thus, it will get much more attention than much more dangerous storms that hit in the so called hinterlands, like the extreme August derecho in Iowa that caused at least $7.5 billion in damage. 

Here in Vermont, it seems like southern Vermont will get some snow out of this.  The question is how much?  Earlier guesses aren't that impressive.  Some computer models have light snow making it as far north as roughly Route 2.  Other computer models keep the snow south of Route 4. 

This forecast will get narrowed down and refined over the next couple of days.

On the one hand, I'm glad I won't be shoveling potentially one to two feet of snow out of my driveway, like countless people will in places further south. 

But this is not about me.  A big snowstorm would have been great for Vermont. Ski areas are already hurting greatly because few people can travel to them due to the pandemic.  A big dump would have helped the cause.

Additionally, there's still definitely some lingering dry conditions in Vermont from the drought from this summer and fall. 

This will be the second very wet nor'easter this month that largely will have missed Vermont. The dry conditions have actually worsened in western Vermont so far this month because there's been so little rain and snow. 

Heavy snows would go a long way to help water tables recover for next spring.

Of course, this is just mid-December.  If precipitation becomes noticeably heavier in the coming months, we'll be fine. In the short term, though, there will be very little precipitation in the Green Mountain State for at least the next week. 

The ground will freeze up though.  With highs in the teens to around 20 and lows in the single numbers Tuesday through Thursday, the ground will get pretty frosty.  Which is also bad news. Without a protective layer of snow, the ground will freeze more readily than it would had there been a snow cover.

This frozen ground means it will be harder for rain and melted snow to soak in during any thaws we get this winter.