ANOTHER Out Of Season Nor'easter About To Strike Vermont/New England. On Saturday, Of Course!

Forecast weather map for Saturday shows 
another rare May nor'easter over New England
the second one this month. Only two 
percent of all nor'easters hit in May, at least usually

Historically, only about two percent of all nor'easters strike New England in May.  Nor'easters are creatures of the winter.  

However, we're about to be hit by the second nor'easter this month. Go figure.

This one will come through Saturday, which of course will by far make Saturday in Vermont the wettest, gloomiest day of this week. It will also be the tenth Saturday in a row with rain.  It's a Vermont tradition!

BEFORE WE GET THERE

Today will be the last truly nice day for awhile, but most of the upcoming days, with the exception of Saturday, won't be a total loss.

It got up to 82 degrees in Burlington yesterday. Summer warmth, but the humidity was rock-bottom low, so it felt pleasant. 

We'll do it again today, with highs at similar levels. Sunshine will tend to fade behind high clouds this afternoon, but it will still be a wonderful day to get outdoors.

Tomorrow, not so much. It should be cooler under a lot of clouds. Showers will roam around Vermont, especially in the afternoon. They won't be heavy, only depositing maybe a tenth to at most a quarter inch of rain.

With the clouds, it'll be noticeably cooler, rising up to only the 65 to 72 degree range.

Friday looks better. At least there will be some sun.  There is a risk of showers, but they should be light and won't last all day, Temperatures should pop back up into the 70s for many of us

SATURDAY NOR'EASTER

Then we get into Saturday. Our nor'easter. If current forecasts hold, it'll pretty much rain all day. It could come down hard at times. It very likely won't be enough to cause flooding, but it will keep our ground super saturated. If there's any flooding, it would be very widely scattered and quite minor. Definitely no big flash floods and damage like we had on Saturday, May 17 with those severe thunderstorms.

We won't even hear thunder with this nor'easter

If this were winter, the storm would take a perfect track to give us a huge snowstorm, But it's the very end of May, so rain it is!  Unlike last week's nor'easter, it won't even be cold enough on mountain summits for snow.

Still, it will be cold for this time of year for us valley dwellers, with highs only near 60.   

This nor'easter will also be "better" than the last one for another reason. It won't linger around obnoxiously for days like last week's storm did. It'll zip on through, and be pretty much out of our hair by later Saturday night. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The nor'easter will be somewhere around central Quebec Sunday, whipping chilly north winds and showers down on us during the day. So it will be quite a chilly first day of June, with highs only in the upper 50s and low 60s.  Those showers should be light, but perhaps frequent, though it won't rain all day. 

The storm will be further north Monday, but still close enough to keep it chilly for June and give us the risk of some scattered light showers.

But after that, the nor'easter will be a memory. Forecasts of course are iffy in the long term, so we can't get into specifics. But it does look like we're in for a dramatic warm up starting Tuesday and continuing on for the rest of the week. 

Brace Yourself, Vermont: You're REALLY About To Get Slapped By Winter. Also, Not Just Vermont

 Like I noted in a post Sunday morning, it's been an incredibly warm year in Vermont.

A weather map depicting what forecasters think will
be happening Thursday morning. A strong Alberta
clipper is seen here spreading wind and snow
across the Northeast, while a blast of Arctic air
begins to rush southward into the eastern
half of the United States. 

That party is over. 

The chilly winds and snow showers, and itty bits of lake effect stuff the Green Mountain State experienced over the weekend was just a tiny morsel of what's to come.

If you love wind chills below zero, icebox temperatures, lots of wind and bursts of snow blasting into your face, this will be your week. And this could last awhile. 

Today and tomorrow, we'll muddle through with sort of chilly weather for this time of year, but nothing that out of the ordinary.  The sky will probably yield a few more snowflakes from time to time, but nothing major. 

We already had some snow in much of Vermont overnight. My place in St. Albans had 1.1 inches of surprise snow overnight.

Roads early this morning were slick in spots, and as of 7 a.m it was definitely still snowing noticeably in the northern Green Mountains and western slopes. Accumulations won't amount to all that much today, but the dustings in the mountains will continue to slowly add up. 

Tomorrow, it's rinse and repeat. Some of us might get another  dusting, a lucky few maybe an inch or two. And the northern mountains could collect up to four or five inches of fluff.

WINTER SLAMS

The cold drama starts Wednesday. A strong Alberta clipper will come at us from the west and northwest and pass through the region Thursday. 

Alberta clippers, to refresh your memory, are storms that form in or near Alberta, Canada and head southeastward toward us. They can be windy storms, but they they don't usually have all that much moisture to work with.  

They usually bring cold winds and more often than not, less than four inches of snow. 

This particular Alberta clipper will help spread frigid air through almost all of the eastern half of the nation, creating southern freezes, subzero cold in the upper Midwest, more epic lake effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes, and general winter awfulness and cold winds everywhere in the East.

An early guesstimate from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington regarding how much snow
will fall Wednesday and Thursday. It's definitely
subject to change, and I suspect this map might
underestimate how much snow might all in 
the northern and central Green Mountains. 

 As is usual with an Alberta clipper, we won't get a huge dump of snow with this one here in Vermont, but it will get somewhat snowy. .

Ahead of it, strong south winds will get cranking Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Despite the south winds, it really won't warm up much, so the precipitation that does come in will be snow. 

The storm's boisterous cold fronts will bluster through on Thursday, with more snow showers. Some of them might be squally, with briefly heavy snow and particularly gusty and erratic winds. 

So really, this whole Alberta clipper thing will make travel on the highways a bit much at times through Wednesday through Friday. 

Lower valleys like the Champlain and lower Connecticut probably won't see much new snow, maybe an inch or two. But the mountains (Read: ski areas) should benefit from several inches of snow. 

Starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend, it's going to be COLD.  The howling winter winds will continue. High temperatures Friday and during next weekend will only be in the 20s, with some areas maybe not making it out of the teens Friday. 

Lows will be in the single digits, and wind chills will certainly be below zero. If you  haven't dragged your really cold winter gear out of the closets yet, now's the time to do it. 

Sure, it usually gets cold in December, but this looks like it will definitely a stronger and more intense early December cold wave than we've gotten used to in recent years.  Though in this age of climate change, this won't be as nasty as some historic cold waves decades ago. It won't be a record-breaker.

It's beginning to look like a reinforcing shot of frigid air will come in around Sunday, so the earliest we might see any kind of warm up is more than a week away. 

Quick Vermont Monday Evening Storm Update: Winter Storm, High Wind Watches

The latest snow forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington, issued
this afternoon. It only goes through 8 p.m. Thursday.
so a little more might fall in the mountains after that.
This map is also very much subject to change. 

 Doing a very quick update this Monday evening on the expected storm coming later this week. Mostly because the National Weather Service has hoisted some weather watches for different  parts of the Vermont.  

A winter storm watch is now in effect for the Green Mountain chain, and sizable chunks of southern and central Vermont. 

The watch goes from sometime Wednesday morning through the late night on Thursday. The areas under the watch can expect six to 14 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. 

So far, the only parts of Vermont not under any kind of winter weather watch is the Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. These areas will still see snow,  but not as much. The White Mountains of New Hampshire will probably block some of the deep moisture necessary for snow from reaching the Northeast Kingdom.

The Green Mountains will probably block a little moisture from reaching the Champlain Valley, too. And it'll be a little warmer there, so rain will mix in during parts of the storm

That relatively brief window later Wednesday during which strong winds could occur in Rutland County, especially along the western slopes of the Greens, has gotten a little more certain. However, the strong damaging winds could extend all the way to the New York border, 

Which is why all of Rutland County is under a high wind watch later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds could gust to over 60 mph. 

Strong winds, perhaps not as powerful as in Rutland County, could extend northward along the western slopes, too, all the way to near Jay Peak.  Combined with wet snow, the winds are a recipe for power failures. 

Speaking of which, this still looks like it will be a wet, heavy snow, so power outages could occur anywhere in the state during this storm. 

Other changes to the forecast have rain and snow starting a little later in the day Wednesday.  It'll also be slightly warmer than first thought on Wednesday, so rain will predominate at first before a changeover to snow in most spots.

I'll have much more on this storm in tomorrow morning's post.

Weird Temperatures A Nationwide Thing Today, Also Update On Our Snowstorm

We're still on track in Vermont for a decent sized snowfall
on Friday. Current forecasts from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington have all of the state receiving
at least six inches of snow, with some southern
Vermont spots getting up to a foot of it. 

 Today turned out to be one of those days in which temperatures were all over the place across the nation. 

Different parts of the United States often have record high and record low temperatures on the same date. 

The contrast between the Northwest and the Northeast today were pretty impressive, though. The changes going on in some places are pretty wild, too. 

We saw that here in Vermont, where, as forecast,   the weather here   is completely different late this afternoon as it was this morning.   

For example, we can start with the tale of two Portlands. 

Normally mild Portland, Oregon was 26 degrees this morning, which was just two degrees shy of the record low for the date. Meanwhile, in Portland, Maine, usually home to much more rugged weather, the record high today was 66 degrees, smashing the old record of 61 degrees and coming within two degrees of the all time record high for the month of February. 

Hartford, Connecticut, had a record high of 70 degrees today but was simultaneously under a winter storm watch for Friday.  Boston also reached 70 degrees. 

The cold in the United States encompasses a far larger area than today's fleeting heat in the Northeast. This is probably the most impressive cold wave this entire winter.  

The cold extends from California to Colorado to the Upper Midwest.  Alerts have been upgraded to a hard freeze warning in California's Central Valley, where record lows are expected tonight and tomorrow night. 

In usually temperate places like Santa Rosa, California, officials have set up warming shelters because of the frigid weather. Frost and freeze warnings extend into the San Francisco Bay area, which is also expecting record low temperatures. 

Up in Washington State, record lows today included 23 degrees in Seattle and 14 in Olympia. Denver, Colorado reached a record low of 7 below.

The worst weather with this cold outbreak today was in northern Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Thundersnow storms roamed around Oklahoma as temperatures this afternoon held in the teens. Normal highs there this time of year are in the mid-50s. 

In Arkansas, heavy sleet and freezing rain was also accompanied by thunder. The freezing rain will continue into Thursday, which promises lots of damage to trees and power lines. 

This is the the same storm that is going to give us our snowstorm here in Vermont Friday.

VERMONT SET UP

Temperatures, as expected, crashed in the Green Mountain State today.  Here in St. Albans, it was in the mid-50s at 8 a.m. but back below freezing by 12:45 p.m. It took longer to get cold in the rest of Vermont.  Burlington finally dipped below freezing after 4 p.m. Montpelier dropped from the low 50s at 1 p.m. to the 30s at 2 p.m.. 

Flurries have been ongoing here and in much of northern Vermont all afternoon, and we now have a dusting of replacement snow.  We're still on track to receive a bunch more replacement snow. 

It'll stay cold tonight and tomorrow, so all the mud out there will freeze back up. 

While the entire state remains under a winter storm watch, there's only been subtle trends so far in the overall forecast for the storm. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has detected a slight northward trend in the computer guidance for this storm, so that would increase the already good chances that areas of Vermont north of Route 2 will still get a decent amount of snow. That would probably be in the 6 to 9 inch range, which is fine.

Southern Vermont still looks like the winner, especially along the south and east facing slopes, which could clock in with a foot. 

The National Weather Service says we might have to be a bit patient with this storm as it starts. Snowfall during a good portion of Friday morning might be pretty light and wimpy. Then, during the day, especially from late morning to late afternoon,the snow would really come down, if current forecasts hold.

That would mean an inch an hour, so six inches or more could pile up pretty quickly. Speaking of quick the storm is a fast mover, so the snow will quickly taper off Friday night. 

 

Weight Loss Special! Lose 10 Pounds In A Day Through High Humidity!

Raindrops that felt like bathwater drip into - what else- 

a birdbath in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.

It will stay oppressively humid in the 

Green Mountain State through Friday.

 Yes, I know I'm being sarcastic with today's headline, but by the tail end of summer, you start getting snarky after repeated bouts of very warm and very humid weather. 

We've got three more days here in Vermont of suffering through very humid weather, so sit back and enjoy. And sweat off those pounds by just walking around outside.

 Seriously, though: Stay hydrated and don't over-exert in this weather! I paid the price working outside yesterday. I drank a LOT of water while working, and still felt a little lousy at the end of the day.

For today, I decided my gardens are on their own.  If I do anything with them, I'll give them a dose of water.  I might end up having a few "accidents" with the hose and soaking myself  instead.  I get a little clumsy when it's hot and humid, you understand. 

Yesterday was bad enough. Even though few of us here in Vermont managed to reach an actual temperature of 90 degrees the humidity made it fell like it was over 90. The broader valleys of Vermont and New York are under a heat advisory again today. 

Today will probably actually make it to 90 degrees  There were a few light showers - remnants of thunderstorms that were well to our west last evening - early this morning. But that's not preventing some sunshine from returning and boosting temperatures. 

It's also even more humid than it was yesterday.  Dew points were in the mid-60s yesterday but are in the low 70s today, so it's rough out there. 

Given the juicy air, another round of scattered hit and miss thunderstorms will develop at the end of the day and those will  hit a few areas here and there overnight. A few lucky people will get really heavy downpours out of these storms tonight, but most of us won't. 

Thursday looks just as bad or worse with the heat. The heat index in some spots will be around 100 degrees again. (Temperatures in the low 90s, dew points in the low 70s).

 We've been told for days now that ingredients could come together to produce some fairly intense thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

As of this morning, we're still getting mixed signals on how extensive the storms might be tomorrow afternoon.

On the one hand, there will be plenty of wet air sitting here as fuel for these storms. If we get sufficient sun, that will make the air really, really unstable, just waiting for a trigger to quickly launch some big storms. 

A weak little disturbance coming in from the west, or just uneven terrain could be enough to spark these big storms. 

However, the dying remains of another cluster of storms from the west might, just might cross over Vermont tomorrow morning, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. That would stabilize the atmosphere some. Which in turn would either prevent the storms from getting intense, or shunt the worst ones off to our south. 

We'll wait and see on that. 

A third day of heat and storms is likely Friday as a cold front approaches. It all depends upon the timing of that front as to whether we see any severe storms or not. 

You'll like the weekend, especially the second half.  You'll notice a change in the air probably by Saturday afternoon that will involve much less humidity and cooler temperatures.   Current projects call for "Chamber of Commerce" weather Sunday - sunny, warm but not hot, with low humidity. 

We all hope that comes to pass1