Abrupt Spring: Weird Summer Heat Spreading Across Much Of The U.S. Way Too Early. Severe Weather, Too!

We didn't see forecast maps like this much during the
winter. High chances of well above normal 
temperatures in the East between March 8-12

The heat of winter in the United States are continuing into a new month as blowtorch record highs out west threaten to head east.   

Record high temperatures really began to take hold of portions of the United States in the past few days. While the West roasted, much of the rest still shivered. For the first couple of days in March, anyway.  

Believe it or not, meteorological winter, the period from December 1 to February 28, was the second warmest on record in the U.S.

People in the northeastern United States would beg to differ. But the colder than average weather in the Northeast was far outdone by the bonkers warmth across the western U.S.

SOUTHWESTERN BLOWTORCH

Many of the records that have already been set are pretty alarming. 

In the final days of meteorological winter, on Thursday, February 26, preliminary data shows that the temperature reached 106 at Falcon Dam, Falcon Reservoir, Texas. That's right on the Mexican border about halfway between Laredo and McAllen, Texas. 

If that temperature is verified, that would be the hottest temperature on record anywhere in the United States in February and in meteorological winter. The normal high temperatures this time of year at Falcon Dam is in the mid to upper 70s. 

The previous mark for hottest U.S. temperature rwas 104 degrees.

California and Arizona joined the chat on Friday. Ocotillo Wells, California reached 101 degrees, which sets a new mark for hottest February day on record for anywhere in California.

Meanwhile, Tacna, Arizona reached 100 degrees Friday, which is the hottest winter day anywhere in that state. Phoenix, Arizona hit a high of 92 on Friday, tying the record for hottest February temperature. It was the first 90 degree reading of the year. That milestone usually comes in late March, a month later than it did. 

Then it reached 92 degrees again in Phoenix Saturday. Then it hit 93 on Sunday. Another record high.  

Those temperatures shattered what became by far the hottest meteorological winter on record in Phoenix, with a mean temperature of 64 degrees. The old record was 61.3 degrees, set just last year in the winter of 2024-25.

Phoenix has had some alarmingly hot, consistently record breaking heat over the past two years, so this trend is troubling. 

Record highs included downtown Los Angeles at 91 degrees, Woodland Hills, 92 degrees and Burbank, 90 degrees. At a higher elevation, Big Bear had a record high of 70 degrees. 

HEAT MOVES EAST

Now, for something different. For the first time since early winter, the record western  heat in the US is heading east. 

It started in the Rocky Mountains, which also had a warm winter. 

Over in Colorado, Denver just had its second warmest winter on record, and the most days of 60 degrees or more in meteorological winter, with a total of 41. 

Up in Montana, the warm dry winter continued right through February and into March.  A wildfire erupted in late February near Butte. State fire officials said it was unheard of to see a fire this time of year on a north facing slope at an elevation above 6,000 feet. There should have been snow on the ground. 

By the end of this week, the heat will have spread to much of the central and eastern United States. There will be dozens, or more likely hundreds of record highs through the rest of the week and into the weekend. .

For example, by Friday, places like Tennessee will be in the low 80s, which will threaten record high temperatures. 

Oxford, Mississippi, hardest hit by the destructive ice storm back in late January, is expecting daily highs in the mid 70s to low 80s today through at least next Monday. 

Charlotte, North Carolina is expecting near record highs in the low 80s by Friday. 

Washington DC had nearly an inch of new snow yesterday as temperatures held in the 30s all day. Daily high temperatures there Thursday through next Monday are likely to be in the 70s.  

It's still unclear how warm it'll get here in New England and how long it will last, but we should see at least a few warmer than normal days. With a lot of snow lingering on the ground near the Great Lakes and in New England, ice jams and flooding are possible. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The real dangerous weather, though, looks like it will set up in parts of the Plains and Midwest over the next several days. 

South winds that are helping to move the heat into the United States are now starting to pull deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and that trend will continue to intensify. It'll be downright humid in much of the central and southeastern U.S. the rest of the week.

With storms moving across the north central United States and cold air lurking to the north, this is a classic set up for severe weather, tornadoes and flooding. 

It'll start up this afternoon in a small way across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. It looks like the risk of severe will increase tomorrow around northeastern Texas, and parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. More severe weather is expected in Texas Thursday.

Friday looks like a particularly dangerous day from Texas all the way up to Iowa. It's looking like there could be quite a few tornadoes. This could be first major severe weather outbreak of the season. 

 

Brace Yourself, Vermont: You're REALLY About To Get Slapped By Winter. Also, Not Just Vermont

 Like I noted in a post Sunday morning, it's been an incredibly warm year in Vermont.

A weather map depicting what forecasters think will
be happening Thursday morning. A strong Alberta
clipper is seen here spreading wind and snow
across the Northeast, while a blast of Arctic air
begins to rush southward into the eastern
half of the United States. 

That party is over. 

The chilly winds and snow showers, and itty bits of lake effect stuff the Green Mountain State experienced over the weekend was just a tiny morsel of what's to come.

If you love wind chills below zero, icebox temperatures, lots of wind and bursts of snow blasting into your face, this will be your week. And this could last awhile. 

Today and tomorrow, we'll muddle through with sort of chilly weather for this time of year, but nothing that out of the ordinary.  The sky will probably yield a few more snowflakes from time to time, but nothing major. 

We already had some snow in much of Vermont overnight. My place in St. Albans had 1.1 inches of surprise snow overnight.

Roads early this morning were slick in spots, and as of 7 a.m it was definitely still snowing noticeably in the northern Green Mountains and western slopes. Accumulations won't amount to all that much today, but the dustings in the mountains will continue to slowly add up. 

Tomorrow, it's rinse and repeat. Some of us might get another  dusting, a lucky few maybe an inch or two. And the northern mountains could collect up to four or five inches of fluff.

WINTER SLAMS

The cold drama starts Wednesday. A strong Alberta clipper will come at us from the west and northwest and pass through the region Thursday. 

Alberta clippers, to refresh your memory, are storms that form in or near Alberta, Canada and head southeastward toward us. They can be windy storms, but they they don't usually have all that much moisture to work with.  

They usually bring cold winds and more often than not, less than four inches of snow. 

This particular Alberta clipper will help spread frigid air through almost all of the eastern half of the nation, creating southern freezes, subzero cold in the upper Midwest, more epic lake effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes, and general winter awfulness and cold winds everywhere in the East.

An early guesstimate from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington regarding how much snow
will fall Wednesday and Thursday. It's definitely
subject to change, and I suspect this map might
underestimate how much snow might all in 
the northern and central Green Mountains. 

 As is usual with an Alberta clipper, we won't get a huge dump of snow with this one here in Vermont, but it will get somewhat snowy. .

Ahead of it, strong south winds will get cranking Wednesday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Despite the south winds, it really won't warm up much, so the precipitation that does come in will be snow. 

The storm's boisterous cold fronts will bluster through on Thursday, with more snow showers. Some of them might be squally, with briefly heavy snow and particularly gusty and erratic winds. 

So really, this whole Alberta clipper thing will make travel on the highways a bit much at times through Wednesday through Friday. 

Lower valleys like the Champlain and lower Connecticut probably won't see much new snow, maybe an inch or two. But the mountains (Read: ski areas) should benefit from several inches of snow. 

Starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend, it's going to be COLD.  The howling winter winds will continue. High temperatures Friday and during next weekend will only be in the 20s, with some areas maybe not making it out of the teens Friday. 

Lows will be in the single digits, and wind chills will certainly be below zero. If you  haven't dragged your really cold winter gear out of the closets yet, now's the time to do it. 

Sure, it usually gets cold in December, but this looks like it will definitely a stronger and more intense early December cold wave than we've gotten used to in recent years.  Though in this age of climate change, this won't be as nasty as some historic cold waves decades ago. It won't be a record-breaker.

It's beginning to look like a reinforcing shot of frigid air will come in around Sunday, so the earliest we might see any kind of warm up is more than a week away. 

Rain/Wind Lashing Eastern United States, Including Vermont As Monday Storm Roars Through

The normally tiny stream near my house in St. Albans, Vermont
was roaring this morning. It's normally just a two inch
deep little gurgle of water. This morning it was the
highest I've seen it since the big flood in July. 

 As everyone expected, it was a stormy night in the eastern United States as that intensifying storm moves northward toward New England and New York today. 

Tens of thousands of residents are without power up and down the East Coast, schools are closed in many areas as people hunker down from the wind and rain. 

Flood warnings and flash flood warnings extended before dawn from Maryland to New Hampshire.

On Sunday, severe flooding hit South Carolina.  Torrential rains, especially near the coast created a flash flood emergency, especially since high storm tides blocked the water from draining. The storm surge in Charleston, South Carolina was the highest on record for a non-tropical storm.

Up to a foot of rain fell in some parts of South Carolina. 

With the storm moving north, the biggest effects from it today will be in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. Flood watches cover virtually all of New England and New York. Wind advisories and high wind warnings also cover most of the region.

One area I've been really concerned about is the south and east facing slopes of the White Mountains in New Hampshire, where huge amounts of moisture are slamming into the mountains, forcing the air to rise and create torrential downpours. 

A flash flood warning went up for central and northern New Hampshire this morning, including areas around Conway and Franconia Notch. Two to five inches of rain, along with rapid snowmelt on frozen ground, is creating a dangerous situation in New Hampshire. 

Of course, we in Vermont are not escaping this storm. Let's dive in on how we are faring in the Green Mountain State

VERMONT EFFECTS

The worst of the storm was just moving into Vermont as of 5 a.m. this Monday morning. Expect a stormy day, especially this morning and early afternoon. Rain will come down hard at times. The flood watch certainly remains in effect.  High winds will cause some problems in a few areas, especially near the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Before dawn, the strong and strengthening storm had an elongated south to north orientation. One center seemed to be near near New Jersey and the other along the Virginia coast. This arrangement allowed rain to move in last evening.

Flooding

The storm as of 6 a.m. was sending bands of heavy rain south to north across Vermont. The storm is sort of consolidating as it gets stronger and moves north. It seems like the center will be about over Burlington or the central Adirondacks by early afternoon. 

Most of us should still have a storm total of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain with this storm before it's over. Plus snow melt from the mountains. 

As of 6:30 a.m., there were not yet any flood advisories or warnings in Vermont, but I think that will change as we go through the morning and afternoon. 

During the day today, the problem will be smaller brooks and streams, which could erode back roads, wreck culverts, create sink holes, that kind of thing. Large puddles, standing water and hydroplaning will all be issues on the roads and highways. 

By this afternoon into tomorrow morning, all rivers in Vermont will be high with many going into minor flood stage, as has been anticipated right along. A couple rivers, like the lower Winooski and the Hoosick in southwestern Vermont, could hit moderate flood stage.

The lower reaches of the larger rivers should still be flooding and closing some roads Tuesday morning even after the rain has ended. That's because it takes time for the runoff to get all the down river. Both today and tomorrow morning, you'll want to check ahead to see if the low lying road you usually take to school or work is open or not. 

And for gawd's sake if you encounter flooding on a road, don't go past the barriers and plow through, stupidly thinking you can make it. You probably won't. Just turn around and find another way to get where you're going. It's not that hard. 

What I said last night still appears to be holding: There will be a fair amount of flooding with this We can expect road closures and some damage to very low lying property. But this won't be a repeat of the flooding from this past summer. The flooding this time is something to take seriously, but it won't be catastrophic.

High winds

This track is a wee bit further west than last evening's forecast indicated. That opens the door for a little more downslope winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Especially since the east winds will be perpendicular to the Green Mountain ridge line for a time this morning.

That will allow wind to gather momentum and blast down the slopes of the mountains. That was already starting before dawn, as I've noticed a few power outages have started to crop up - about 750 of them as of 6:30 a.m..

The period of strongest winds along the western slopes should be brief, maybe just a few hours, but we could see gusts of 60 mph or more in the usual wind-prone places, like the Mendon, Ripton, perhaps Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge and Berkshire. 

I expect a few more power outages and reports of fallen trees and branches to crop up through the morning. 

Most of the rest of us should see gusty winds at some point today, but those winds shouldn't very damaging away from the western slopes. 

Record warmth

The storm is sending a surge of very warm, humid air northward for this time of year. By 6 a.m. temperatures were already well into the 50s in southwestern Vermont. The record high in Burlington today is 57 degrees, and the forecast high is 58.

Montpelier will probably shatter its record high for the date, which is 50 degrees. 

Behind The Storm

Temperatures will start to fall in Vermont by mid to late afternoon, but it will be a fairly slow process. Rain will become much lighter and showery tonight, and probably change to snow over the higher terrain. 

In most of the valleys, though, temperatures might not even be below freezing by dawn Tuesday. However, a cold front behind this storm should trigger some snow showers and falling temperatures during the day. A few of the snow showers might be kinda heavy, which would cause some problems with poor visibility and suddenly icy roads in spots. 

After that, we've got quiet weather to look forward to through Christmas. 

I'll have updates as warranted with this storm today. 

Pick Your Poison: Heavy Rain Or Strong Wind For Vermont Monday Storm

Projected rainfall over the next seven days. Virtually all of
it in the East is from the upcoming storm over the 
next couple days. Areas shaded in purple would
get at least 1.5 inches of rain. Red areas get at least
three inches.Notice, too, after a dry start, California
is going to get into some decent rains. 

 That strong storm forecast to affect the entire eastern United States this weekend and Monday remains on track, but of course, how it affects us here in Vermont still has some question marks. 

Right at mid-afternoon today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington hoisted flood watches for the entire state. They also posted high wind watches for the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

So here's the Saturday update. Remarkably, the overall thoughts on the effects and path of the upcoming storm have so far not changed a while lot.   

As the storm gathers steam today and tonight, Florida remains under the gun for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy rain.  

This storm will be off to the races Sunday, racing northward and bringing a flood threat with it from Florida to - eventually - Maine and southeastern Canada.

As of midafternoon today, there were already a smattering of flood watches from Florida, up through the Mid-Atlantic States, southern New England and central Maine.  

It'll be quite windy along and near the storm track, too, but as they always say, results may vary.  Some places in the East will be windier than others.

Both flood and wind hazards are in play for Vermont. More below: 

Luckily, the fact the storm will be a fast mover means it won't be that big a problem for too long. And since the storm won't have much time to unload its downpours in any one place, we can cross our fingers that most of the flooding in the East will be relatively minor. 

So what does it mean for us in Vermont:

VERMONT EFFECTS

Broadly, we know the storm will give us kind of a brief shot at very warm, windy and wet weather. Especially for this time of year. 

Like so many storms in recent years, this is likely to be a Christmas spoiler, erasing the snow cover in many areas of the Green Mountain State that are snow covered this morning. 

Today is the calm before the storm.  A weak cold front passed through early this morning, but you wouldn't know it, given how temperatures were still above freezing in a good chunk of Vermont before dawn today. 

 If skies remain partly clear this evening, be on the lookout for possible northern lights, as there was a big solar flare the other night which could set them off. But the trend tonight will be for increasing clouds, as usual, so even if there is a show in the sky, chances are we'll miss it.

Sunday will be cloudy, warm with increasing breezes. It should be especially windy on mountain summits and around Lake Champlain.  Rain should start to move in later in the day. 

Between the relatively heavy rain Sunday night and Monday and snow melt from very warm air, we do have a risk of flooding.  This would involve both small streams and, later on into Monday and Monday night, some of the larger rivers. 

We'll also have to watch for a risk of strong winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, but that prospect is really iffy.  I don't expect a repeat of last December's intense, destructive wind storm in Vermont, but it could still be quite nasty.

At this point anyway, we're looking at possible gusts to 60 mph in those locations. If things play out perfectly, those western slope gusts could be stronger. Even in areas away from the western slopes, current forecasts have possible wind gusts Monday to 50 mph.

All that puts Vermont in play for possible power outages for the fourth Monday in a row. 

If the upcoming storm goes by to our west on Monday, we have a better chance of gusty winds and record high temperatures, but rain wouldn't be quite as heavy as forecast. If the storm goes by to our east, the rain would be heavier here, but the wind and the temperatures would be just a bit lower. 

It's a tossup as to whether the storm goes by to our west, east or right over the top of us. 

By the time the storm passes by and temperatures drop, a lot of snow will be gone. There is a decent chance of snow showers later Monday night and Tuesday with light accumulations in some spots, but so far, it doesn't look like a biggie.

And in the days leading up to Christmas, it looks like it will be mostly dry with kinda average temperatures for this time year.