Abrupt Spring: Weird Summer Heat Spreading Across Much Of The U.S. Way Too Early. Severe Weather, Too!

We didn't see forecast maps like this much during the
winter. High chances of well above normal 
temperatures in the East between March 8-12

The heat of winter in the United States are continuing into a new month as blowtorch record highs out west threaten to head east.   

Record high temperatures really began to take hold of portions of the United States in the past few days. While the West roasted, much of the rest still shivered. For the first couple of days in March, anyway.  

Believe it or not, meteorological winter, the period from December 1 to February 28, was the second warmest on record in the U.S.

People in the northeastern United States would beg to differ. But the colder than average weather in the Northeast was far outdone by the bonkers warmth across the western U.S.

SOUTHWESTERN BLOWTORCH

Many of the records that have already been set are pretty alarming. 

In the final days of meteorological winter, on Thursday, February 26, preliminary data shows that the temperature reached 106 at Falcon Dam, Falcon Reservoir, Texas. That's right on the Mexican border about halfway between Laredo and McAllen, Texas. 

If that temperature is verified, that would be the hottest temperature on record anywhere in the United States in February and in meteorological winter. The normal high temperatures this time of year at Falcon Dam is in the mid to upper 70s. 

The previous mark for hottest U.S. temperature rwas 104 degrees.

California and Arizona joined the chat on Friday. Ocotillo Wells, California reached 101 degrees, which sets a new mark for hottest February day on record for anywhere in California.

Meanwhile, Tacna, Arizona reached 100 degrees Friday, which is the hottest winter day anywhere in that state. Phoenix, Arizona hit a high of 92 on Friday, tying the record for hottest February temperature. It was the first 90 degree reading of the year. That milestone usually comes in late March, a month later than it did. 

Then it reached 92 degrees again in Phoenix Saturday. Then it hit 93 on Sunday. Another record high.  

Those temperatures shattered what became by far the hottest meteorological winter on record in Phoenix, with a mean temperature of 64 degrees. The old record was 61.3 degrees, set just last year in the winter of 2024-25.

Phoenix has had some alarmingly hot, consistently record breaking heat over the past two years, so this trend is troubling. 

Record highs included downtown Los Angeles at 91 degrees, Woodland Hills, 92 degrees and Burbank, 90 degrees. At a higher elevation, Big Bear had a record high of 70 degrees. 

HEAT MOVES EAST

Now, for something different. For the first time since early winter, the record western  heat in the US is heading east. 

It started in the Rocky Mountains, which also had a warm winter. 

Over in Colorado, Denver just had its second warmest winter on record, and the most days of 60 degrees or more in meteorological winter, with a total of 41. 

Up in Montana, the warm dry winter continued right through February and into March.  A wildfire erupted in late February near Butte. State fire officials said it was unheard of to see a fire this time of year on a north facing slope at an elevation above 6,000 feet. There should have been snow on the ground. 

By the end of this week, the heat will have spread to much of the central and eastern United States. There will be dozens, or more likely hundreds of record highs through the rest of the week and into the weekend. .

For example, by Friday, places like Tennessee will be in the low 80s, which will threaten record high temperatures. 

Oxford, Mississippi, hardest hit by the destructive ice storm back in late January, is expecting daily highs in the mid 70s to low 80s today through at least next Monday. 

Charlotte, North Carolina is expecting near record highs in the low 80s by Friday. 

Washington DC had nearly an inch of new snow yesterday as temperatures held in the 30s all day. Daily high temperatures there Thursday through next Monday are likely to be in the 70s.  

It's still unclear how warm it'll get here in New England and how long it will last, but we should see at least a few warmer than normal days. With a lot of snow lingering on the ground near the Great Lakes and in New England, ice jams and flooding are possible. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The real dangerous weather, though, looks like it will set up in parts of the Plains and Midwest over the next several days. 

South winds that are helping to move the heat into the United States are now starting to pull deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and that trend will continue to intensify. It'll be downright humid in much of the central and southeastern U.S. the rest of the week.

With storms moving across the north central United States and cold air lurking to the north, this is a classic set up for severe weather, tornadoes and flooding. 

It'll start up this afternoon in a small way across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. It looks like the risk of severe will increase tomorrow around northeastern Texas, and parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. More severe weather is expected in Texas Thursday.

Friday looks like a particularly dangerous day from Texas all the way up to Iowa. It's looking like there could be quite a few tornadoes. This could be first major severe weather outbreak of the season. 

 

ANOTHER Flood Watch In Vermont Friday After Brief, Welcome Break From Rain And Humidity

 I bet a lot of you slept better last night than  you have in weeks. It was a nice interlude between the seemingly constant flood watches and humidity we've been under.  

Deep blue skies over St. Albans, Vermont last evening
signaled a temporary break from the humidity we've
endured for weeks now. However, a new flood
watch looms Friday. 

A flood watch is coming back, however.  That's inevitable, I guess. But after that newest flood watch, there might be some cause for real optimism. More on that in a bit. 

MUCH BETTER SLEEPING

Temperatures fell into the 50s across most of Vermont by early this morning. Perennial cold  spot Saranac Lake, New York actually got down to 44 degrees.     Nights like that are common around here during July, or at least used to be.  This year, though, the humidity has kept us from having a comfortable sleeping night until now,

How long has it been? Well, Burlington got down to at least 60 degrees, which is the "coldest" night since June 23, which was 28 days ago

The dew point, a rough measurement of how comfortable or uncomfortable the humidity is, plunged into the 50s across Vermont Wednesday afternoon, and stayed that way overnight. 

Anything under 60 is considered pretty comfortable. Dew points in the 50s are pretty normal in a Vermont summer, but not this year. But the interlude led to a nice sleeping night Wednesday evening into this Thursday morning. 

I hope  you enjoyed it, because at least of a little while, it's going to be bac, to our regularly scheduled flood watches and humidity. 

TODAY

Another nice day, allowing rivers to recede more, which is obviously a good thing. That dew point might start to creep up later today, but not by much.  It will still feel kind of pleasant out there, and it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.

You'll notice the humidity going back in overnight. 

FRIDAY

Yep, another flood watch. With any luck, we'll end up like we did Tuesday, with just widely scattered incidents.

One reason we're in a flood watch Friday to begin with is another disturbance is slowing down as it approaches and moves through our area Friday and into Saturday. When this happens, lines of showers and storms slow down as well, prolonging what should be a 15 minute downpour into something that lasts an hour or more. 

There's your flash flood, at least in a few locations. 

You know the drill by now. Most of us will get rained on Friday in the reintroduced humid air. A fair number of us will get a downpour or two. And a few unlucky souls will get too much rain too fast, setting up another local flash flood. 

Once again, we don't know in advance who gets the chore of flood cleanup this time.  Whoever it is will be dealing with it in the afternoon and into the evening, when the risk of these downpours peaks. 

Things start to settle down Friday night, but the rain doesn't really end

SATURDAY

Hurray! More showers. It'll be a little cooler, too. The Saturday version will be hit and miss and almost certainly will not lead to more flash flood issues, which leads us to.....

REASONS FOR HOPE!

The weather pattern is shifting a bit, and that could really work in Vermont's favor.  As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explains it, we've been stuck with an upper level low centered up near Hudson or James Bay for weeks now.

That has steered disturbances up its eastern flank.  Those disturbances scoop up tons of moisture as they bead toward the northeast into our neck of the woods. We get dumped on. Repeatedly. The so-called Greenland Block, which I've mentioned earlier, prevents these storms from quickly departing. They linger, and keep dumping more downpours. 

For the first time in weeks, extended forecasts, this one
for around August 1, call for near normal rainfall
over Vermont, not above normal. 

That Hudson Bay low is finally starting to fall apart. It'll probably get replaced by another fairly quickly. But the key is the second upper low seems like it wants to set up shop a little further west in Canada than the first one. 

That'll leave us out of the hard core zone of very wet, very dangerous disturbances. Oh, sure, we'll still have cold fronts and little storm systems coming through under the new regime. But those are much more likely to be the usual summer thunderstorms or relatively brief showery periods. 

I noticed for the first time in a month, extended forecasts more than a week down the road give us near normal precipitation, instead of above normal rainfall.

I can't guarantee everything will be perfect for the rest of the summer. But I'm glad Ma Nature seems to be in the mood to relent a little.