Another Vermont Severe Storm Watch Today, Ugly Hot Weather Pattern Possible Next Week

A slight risk of severe storms. (alert level 2 of 5)
is centered over Vermont this afternoon

UPDATE:12:30 p.m.

To pretty much nobody's surprise, a severe thunderstorm watch is now up for all of Vermont, most of central and eastern New York and far western Massachusetts. 

Storms have been firing up in western and central New York, including one that prompted a tornado warning east of Buffalo, New York. 

Although a renegade storm could pop up at anytime starting now in Vermont, the main push of storms has been postponed by about an hour or so.  

Most storms will come through between 2 and 7 p.m.  The severe thunderstorm watch is up until 8 p.m., mostly to account for storms that might be just winding up at that point in far eastern Vermont.  

It's looking like the peak of the storms in Vermont would be in the 3 to 6 p.m. time frame. Though of course I want to emphasize the some storms could come before or after that. 

The main threat continues to be strong straight line winds in the strongest storms. 

Satellite imagery continued to show a fair amount of sun over Vermont and northeastern New York, which is helping to destabilize the atmosphere. The fact that the sun will stay out an hour or so longer than originally anticipated could help strengthen the storms further, and make them slightly more numerous than in earlier forecasts. 

The humidity continues to climb as well, so that will also help feed storms. So expect an active weather afternoon in Vermont

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

We've had quite a few days with severe storm risks in Vermont lately and today's another one, despite the bright clear skies you see this morning. 

Those bright clear skies are actually one ingredient that will help prompt today's storms.  

Severe thunderstorm watch includes all of Vermont 
until 8 p.m. this evening. 

It's the usual set up for mid-summer storm outbreaks in Vermont.  A cold front is approaching, but it's well to the west.  Ahead of that front, in the humid air, is a little disturbance called a pre-frontal trough. These little lead disturbances are common with summertime cold fronts. 

The sun's heating and the increasing humidity will make the air more and more unstable. The pre-frontal trough will add just enough lift to the fire up storms, some of which will high in the sky and produce locally severe storms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a blob of slight severe risk, level two out of five risk centered today right over Vermont, and also affecting eastern New York, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut.  Environment Canada is watching the storm risk in southern Quebec. 

The biggest threat of damage from any of today's storms is strong straight line winds.  Only a small number of Vermont towns will suffer this damage, as usual. Only we can't tell in advance where this will be.  You'll have to pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings this afternoon, and take it from there. 

So just keep near a sturdy building, or at least an enclosed car, just in case. This is another day to postpone a hike in the mountains or day with your boat on the lake or an afternoon golf outing.  It's supposed to be nice this weekend. Do it then.  

Like we've seen a few times this summer, there's actually a very, very low, but not zero risk of a brief spin up tornado today. The atmosphere isn't great to produce the kind of spinning storm that would produce a tornado potential, but it's not impossible either. 

A strong thunderstorm with heavy rain tosses trees a 
bit this past Monday in St. Albans, Vermont. Similar
scenes are likely to play out in parts of the state today.

The overall air flow is from the southwest, but the Champlain Valley channels the wind in a more southerly direction. So with south winds at the surface and west winds aloft, that could create some spin in a storm or two. 

Even if that happens, a storm that rotates is no guarantee of a brief tornado. But still, I guess the Champlain Valley has become Vermont's version of tornado alley.  Again, chances of a tornado are quite low.

Other risks from today's storms, even if you're not in a severe one, include frequent cloud to ground lightning, which is why you shouldn't be golfing or out on your boat this afternoon. 

Some storms will produce torrential downpours. That could create a few areas of street flooding or some gully washing.  The storms won't sit over one particular place for all that long, so the risk of any substantial flash flooding is pretty low. 

One or two spots could get some hail out of this too. There's a low, but not zero risk that one or two storms could produce big enough hail to ding cars and that sort of thing. 

Timing this out, the risk hours for storms are probably around 1 to 5 p.m. west of the Green Mountains and 2 to 6:30 or so east of the Greens. 

UGLY HEAT?

We seem to be coming into some risk of nasty heat next week, most likely later in the week.  The hot air will start flooding in Monday, when highs could reach 90 degrees. But that initial surge of heat will get cut off at the pass by a weak cold front Tuesday. But then, signs point to the heat really re-asserting itself.

The Bermuda High off the East Coast is forecast to set up a hot southwest flow over us.  Also, an air flow from the west seems to want to grab some of that super hot air now causing a nasty heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and bring it in our direction.

We still have a lot of questions as to how hot it will actually get and how long it will last. No promises, but there's the potential late next week for temperatures in the mid to even upper 90s. We'll keep an eye on that. But ugh!! 

To get you in the mood for today's storms, here's a video of a fairly strong, but non-severe storm that passed through St. Albans, Vermont on Monday. Click on this link to view, or watch in the image below: