UPDATE: 11:15 a.m

Storms earlier over far northwestern Vermont and southern Quebec were just a teases, and now the main show is beginning.

Storms like this one developed yesterday in the hot humid air
in northwestern Vermont but couldn't sustain themselves.
 A trough of low pressure and a cold front will ensure that
storms, some severe will be prevalent this afternoon.

Storms have started to strengthen over the Adirondacks as they move northeastward toward northwestern Vermont.

Other storms are just about to take off.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said just a short while ago they expect to issue a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of eastern New York and New England within the next hour. The watch will almost surely include parts of or all of Vermont.

Remember, a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe storms.  A severe thunderstorm warning means a dangerous storm in imminent. I will be out reporting and documenting  the storms today, so for brief updates, see my Twitter feed, @mattalltradesb

UPDATE 9:45 a.m. 

Storms already just starting to get going NW tip of Vermont. Expecting them to develop further south soon.

They'll develop rapidly, I think, and move swiftly across northern Vermont.  Forecast as set by the National Weather Service and described below still looks good.

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, 9:15 a.m.

Before we get into today's severe weather threat, can we talk about last night? The overnight low of 80 degrees in Burlington would tie the record for the warmest "low" for any date in history.  

The record was first set in 2018.  I doubt this record will hold as thunderstorms and a cold front will ver likely drop temperatures below 80 degrees by midnight tonight. Still, last night was impressive, and not in a good way.  

You can tell by the oppressive airmass over us that we can get storms easily. We saw that yesterday, when some pop up storms prompted a couple of severe storm warnings over northwest Vermont.  The storms couldn't really last, since there wasn't a trigger to keep them going, but it was a demonstration of how easily a storm could form in an instant.

Today, the trigger IS there for storms that will last and streak across Vermont. 

Given all the heat and humidity, it won't take much for today's thunderstorms to get going.  They'll begin earlier than we're used to in hot, oppressive weather. 

Traditionally, we wait until at least early to mid afternoon for storms to really get going during summer storm outbreaks in Vermont.

However, the first disturbance, a "pre-frontal trough" should reach the Champlain Valley by around 11 a.m. Usually, when these little disturbances reach the western Vermont border that early in the day, then places west of the Green Mountains miss out on the storms. The storms focus on eastern Vermont.

Not today. The atmosphere is so primed that storms should easily begin to pop up in eastern New York as early as 10 a.m. today.  A broken line of strong storms could well be entering the Champlain Valley by 11 a.m. 

(One model has storms getting going by 9 a.m., about the time I'm writing this, and I just don't see it. There were a couple isolated storms in southern Quebec, but I think it'll be another hour at least before things really get going).

Not everyone will see a storm, which is the usual case.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to go with a slight risk of severe weather over Vermont today, which means there will be scattered instances of storm damage, but the majority of us should be OK.  Of course, you never know exactly who gets the severe storm until they form and move over you, so it's a crap shoot. 

Some of the storms that will be around will  become strong to severe pretty quickly.  This initial broken line of storms will probably intensify somewhat further as they zip across Vermont early this afternoon and into New Hampshire by mid-afternoon. 

Most of New England, including all of Vermont, remains
under a slight risk of severe storms today. That means
there will likely be at least scattered instances of
storm damage. 

Behind that first line, the atmosphere looks like it will be unstable enough to allow more storms, some possible severe, to develop early this afternoon in New York and cross Vermont in the mid to late afternoon, with the late afternoon storms focused on eastern and southern parts of the state. 

As is always the case, not everyone will see a severe storm. Just a few places will get nailed. But those who do get nailed could see some real damage. As previously forecast, winds aloft are pretty strong for this time of year, which can really help with the strong downburst winds with some storms. Some of these gust could be strong than the usual 60 mph whiffs we get during "traditional" strong storms. 

 A few places could also see some large hail. 

The threat of tornadoes is very, very low but not zero. Winds do change direction with height somewhat, but the airflow isn't ideal for tornadoes. However, it's within the realm of possibility that a renegade storm ahead of the main line of clusters of storms today could produce a brief spin up. 

Today really looks like a hit and miss situation. As noted, a few places will get absolutely nailed. A fair number of us will have sub-severe storms, meaning dangerous lightning, gusty winds, torrential downpours, that kind of thing. Some of us will also skate by with pretty much nothing at all.

Since storms will be developing rapidly and zipping right along once they do form, it's best to stay close to home or office today. No hiking, no going out for a quick spin with the boat on the lake.  I'd even stay fairly close to home when it's time to go walk the dog. 

If you do get a severe thunderstorm warning, just get yourself in a sturdy building, stay away from the windows as best you can and you should be fine. Also remember, you might see a storm coming and not be under a severe storm warning. But that approaching storm could turn severe by the time it reaches you, so it's best to consider that as well.

The good news about these storms getting going so early in the day is that they'll be over fairly early, too.  We might see a few renegade, tardy storms at the first part of this evening, but they'll probably be few and far between. 

A cold front is helping to cause this. And with the dynamic atmosphere, you'd expect it to be nice and refreshing and cool starting tomorrow. Nope!!

It'll be slightly less humid and slightly cooler, but temperatures will still top out in the upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree temperatures Friday and Saturday. 

We'll have to watch another storm Sunday, which could cause more severe weather.  After that disturbance, it looks like we do get into fresher air early next week.