Very Active Weather Week In Vermont, Drenching Rains, Humidity, Storms, Maybe Severe?

Hot and hazy, but dry in Charlotte, Vermont on Sunday.
An expected dousing of fairly heavy rain today 
should help, but I hope you like a week of high

humidity!

UPDATE: 1:15  PM

Forecasts have gotten a bit more bullish on the possibility of severe storms at least in the southern half of Vermont later today,

Thunderstorms, as expected, have been forming near and south of the warm front that's just coming into southern Vermont.

The air near and south of the warm front has some shear, or winds changing directions with  height. This can cause storms to rotate and strengthen.

Such rotating storms can sometimes even produce brief tornadoes

I've seen several storms this morning that had pretty good rotation on radar in New Jersey, the New York City area and Connecticut

I'm not aware of any tornadoes touching down in that area, but storms have potential.   NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is about to issue a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch for parts of southwest New England, southern New York and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States.

Eventually, these could spread northward. The Storm Prediction Center now says there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup over southern Vermont later today. A few spots could experience strong, gusty winds too.

This won't be any kind of widespread event, but it's worth keeping an eye to the skies amid the tropical downpours that will move in later. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's an old song called "Rainy Days And Mondays Always Get Me Down."

It's Monday. And it's going to turn into a rainy day by afternoon.  These two facts are certainly not getting me down, and you should be happy about this fact, too.  Especially since it's probably going to rain pretty hard for most of us. 

As we are well aware, it's gotten dry lately in Vermont. Too dry.  Sunday didn't help, with nearly full sunshine, with some of us reaching 90 degrees or a little better (Burlington had its third 90 degree day so far this summer with a high of 91 degrees) 

So yeah, we need the rain. If current forecasts hold, this batch of rain will really help a lot, even if it doesn't completely solve the dry groundwater problem we developed.  Most places in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain between this morning and Tuesday morning.  A few favored spots could close in on three inches. 

A warm front will bring the initial batch of pretty steady rain through Vermont heading southwest to northeast later this morning into this afternoon. Then we get into some really soupy air this evening and part of tonight, with light rain mixed with frequent tropical downpours a good bet during that time frame. 

A few thunderstorms will be embedded in this mess of rain.  There could - maybe - be a few isolated strong storms in southern Vermont, but at this point, that doesn't seem like much of a risk. 

Had it been a wet summer, there would be some flooding concerns with this set up.  But it's been dry, so we can handle it. The only issue might be some urban and street flooding in the bigger towns during  the heaviest downpours. Just don't drive through standing water. Also slow down on the highways to avoid hydroplaning.

For the record NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has all of the Northeast, including all of Vermont, in a marginal risk zone for scattered flooding through tonight. If anything does develop it'll be minor. Overall, though, go out and dance in these welcomed downpours! 

This is just the start of an active, oppressively humid week.

BIG PICTURE

As I brought up in a July 9 post, the heat dome that has been torturing the middle of the nation, especially Texas all summer has indeed expanded, as predicted.  

While the middle of the nation continues to be the epicenter of this horrible bake off, it's now hotter than average pretty much coast to coast.  Salt Lake City, Utah, for instance, reached 107 degrees Sunday, tying its all time record for hottest temperature. 

Here in Vermont, we're still on the edge of the heat dome, but it's close.  So what I said back July 9 might happen is indeed happening. It's now easier for squirts of hot, humid air to flow into the Green Mountain State. And since we're now more or less on the edge of the oppressive air, probably at least until the end of the month the chances of storms, some possibly severe, have increased as well. 

WHAT'S IN IT FOR US?

We start right off the bat with the first risk of severe storms Tuesday.  It's a low risk, and probably limited to northern Vermont. 

A National Weather Service map of expected rainfall.
Dark green is at least an inch of rain. Yellow is at least
1.5 inches and orange is 2 inches. Looks like forecasters
in New Hampshire are less bullish on expected rains. 

Little disturbances could be the trigger for these storms Tuesday afternoon, given what will be quite warm and humid air over us. 

However, though it might be humid down here where we live, it'll be refreshing dry way overhead.  That'll limit the number of storms that can form.  But there's a chance that one or two could really get going, with the risk of strong gusty winds and hail.

Storms look pretty unlikely Wednesday as we get into a pool of hot, very humid air.  A "cap" in the atmosphere will probably prevent the updrafts you need to trigger those storms. However, it will likely be as hot as it was Sunday. Worse, it will definitely be quite a bit more humid than it was Sunday. It'll be a good day to hug your air conditioner. 

A new storm will ride the edges of the heat dome and enter our picture Thursday. It's a strong system for this time of year. If the timing is right, in which the cold front approaches Vermont during the heat of the day, we could well be in line for more severe storms.  It's something to watch out for.

Despite the storm's strength, the air behind the cold front won't be cold. Just closer to normal for this time of year.  Beyond that, will probably continue to mostly avoid the worst of the heat, but we'll continue to see a parade of little systems zipping along the edge of the heat dome to give us fairly frequent chances of showers and storms through the end of the month.