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| A man carries a sheep on his back as they flee a wildfire in Letria, Portugal during record heat this past week. Photo by Paulo Cunha/EPA via Shutterstock/NBC News |
The British Met Office says it is now likely that at least one city in England will reach 40 degrees Celsius or 104 degrees Fahrenheit.
If that happens, it would shatter England's record for all time hottest temperature, which was 101.6 degrees on July 25, 2019.
London currently is expecting a high temperature of 100 degrees Monday and 97 degrees on Tuesday.
By American standards, these forecasts don't seem too, too bad. Torrid, yes, but these are temperatures that have been experienced frequently outside the northern tier of states.
However, Great Britain isn't built for heat waves. And they were pretty rare in the past. You'd get a few years, like 1976, that were horribly hot. But England's damp, cool reputation held until recent years. Climate change is rewriting the rules of British summers.
The average high temperature in most of Great Britain this time of year is in the mid-70s. So who needs air conditioning? As you can see, since most places there don't have air conditioning, this is an especially dangerous situation for the elderly and for people already dealing with health problems. Estimates are that only three percent of British households have air conditioning.
And the fit are at risk too, apparently. The Met Office has declared the impending heat wave a Level 4 Red Alert. According to Reuters:
"On the Met Office website, a Level 4 red alert is defined as a national emergency, and is used when a heat wave 'is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups."
As the Washington Post reports. the UK Met Office, which is the equivalent of the National Weather Service in the United States, doesn't usually use strong language in even the most noteworthy weather events. This time, though, at least compared to past performances, the people at the Met Office are pulling out their hair. Especially since there's a connection to climate change.
"'The chances of seeing 40 degree C days in the U.K. could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence,' said Nikos Christidis, a climate attribution scientist at the Met Office. 'The likelihood of exceeding 40 degrees C anywhere in the U.K. in a give year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100."
The British torrid spell is part of a heat wave that blossomed in Morocco moved north in recent days into Portugal, Spain and France.
Pinhao, Portugal on Thursday reached 47 degrees Celsius or 116.6 degrees Fahrenheit, for the hottest July temperature on record for that nation.
Several cities in Portugal have set all time record highs in recent days. The hot, dry weather has set off huge forest fires in Portugal and adjacent Spain.
As of Friday morning, the number of deaths associated with the heat continued to rise. At least 281 heat-related deaths were reported in Spain and Portugal and the heat intensified and spread. There could be well over 1,000 deaths before this is over.
Thankfully the heat is forecast to subside, at least for now, by midweek in much of Great Britain and France. Highs from Tuesday onward through the rest of the week in London are forecast to be in the reasonable mid to upper 70s, with 80s forecast in places like Paris.
Of course, it's only mid-July. Deadly heat could re-assert itself through August. The current heat in Europe is making many people remember, and fear a repeat of, the catastrophic European heat wave of 2003.
The longer a heat wave lasts, the worse things get and the more people die. The 2003 heat wave started in June, and pretty much continued through August, culminating in all time record highs in much of western Europe during August.
About 30,000 people are thought to have died during that long 2003 heat wave.
Deadly heat waves have gotten more likely with climate change world wide. The expected heat in the next few days in Great Britain is just one more example of that.
Here in Vermont, we continue to be one of the few places spared so far this summer. It will turn very warm and humid for most of the upcoming week, but we won't come close to record highs. However, the weather pattern does look very active during the week, so expect bouts of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain.
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