Monday, July 25, 2022

Vermont Heat Wave Ends While State Threads Needle, Avoids Damaging Storms

Evening light shines through a shower in St. Albans, Vermont
Sunday evening. Severe weather avoided Vermont 
1 p.m update:

The process to end our heat wave has continued to create hiccups and complications for meteorologists.

The latest issue is that one last narrow line or lines of storms ahead of the cold front that's finally making it into Vermont.

We expected that line of storms to form, but its a little more rambunctious than some forecasters thought. 

When one part of it moved through St. Albans, I saw gusts in the 35-40 mph range and a quick heavy downpour.

By the time this cell made it into the Northeast Kingdom, it had grown stronger, prompting a severe thunderstorm warning for winds of up to 60 mph. 

These line segments of storms are continuing to move slowly southeastward and eastward through Vermont early this afternoon, so a few places might see a quick strong storm as it goes through.

Southeastern New England is still under the gun for more severe storms this afternoon.  Behind that line of Vermont storms, I think we're done. We should see humidity continue to slowly wane as the afternoon wears on

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

As a heat wave began to end overnight in Vermont, we also threaded the needle and avoided damaging storms and some flooding that happened around us. 
Final batch of storms approaching St. Albans, Vermont
late this morning. 


More storm problems are due in parts of New England today, but again, Vermont will mostly avoid trouble. There's still some risk of local flash flooding in the southern half of the Green Mountain State this morning, and a low risk of a severe storm clipping the southeastern half of the state, but that's it. 

HOT WEATHER ENDING

So let's get into what's happening, beginning with the heat. 

As I noted yesterday, the heat was persistent. Burlington, Vermont topped out at 91 degrees Sunday, the sixth consecutive day of 90 degree weather. This heat wave was only one of a total of seven that have lasted that long in Burlington since the 1880s. 

There's an outside chance of it making it to 90 today before the cool air floods in but it is extremely doubtful it will get that warm. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with predicted high of 85 degrees today. 

It'll be a warmish week, but still a big break from the hot weather. Depending upon which day you're talking about, highs daily probably through next Sunday will mostly be in the 80 to 85 degree range. However, I see some signs that the heat will return next week. 

The heat was more intense Sunday in sunnier southern New England. Boston, for instance, reached a record high of 100 degrees. It was only the 27th time in 150 years or so Boston had a triple digit reading, so that's impressive. 

STORMS MENACE AND MISS

The worries yesterday and last night were the risk of severe storms and flash flooding, but it was fortunately not to be in Vermont. 

Geographically, we came close relatively close to trouble, enough to prompt some weather warnings on the edges of Vermont. 

A severe thunderstorm warning for northeastern New York extended as far east as Vermont's northern Champlain Islands around midnight last night, but I've seen no reports of damage there.  That warning has long since expired so no worries there. 

Flash flood warnings were also hoisted for northwestern New York, but so far, I've seen no reports of any trouble extending eastward into Vermont. 

Sunday and Sunday evening, Vermont was sandwiched between two bands of severe weather. One band traveled along the New York/Pennsylvania border and into southwestern New England during the evening, prompting a string of severe storm warnings and reports of downed trees and power lines, including around Albany, New York and the Massachusetts Berkshires

The warnings for severe storms extended into far southern Vermont with this band, but I haven't seen any reports of damage along the Route 9 corridor between Bennington and Brattleboro. So, close but no cigar.

It was even worse to our northwest.  In southeastern Ontario to the west of northern New York, we have reports of a destructive tornado about midway between Toronto and Ottawa. Initial reports indicate severe damage to homes in that area, but I don't have a lot of confirmation yet.

Showers and storms were still ongoing across much of Vermont early this morning. They had pretty much ended in far northwestern Vermont, where I feel cheated out of a needed garden drink. I only measured 0.15 inches of rain. (I might get a little more today, but I'm not holding my breath).

Other areas of the state were doing better with needed rain. Burlington got about a third of an inch. 

As of 7 a.m. some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms were rolling through southern Vermont, and I bet a few areas down there will get a good inch of rain out of this.  During the heat of the day those southern Vermont showers will move into southeastern New England.

Once they get there, either this band of showers will turn into locally severe storms or new ones will pop up. But that will be outside of Vermont, mostly.

NEXT UP

The cold front itself was still up in Ontario, Quebec and central New York this morning, so it will take some time to get through here and freshen up the air. It'll still feel humid for much of the day, but you'll notice a change, especially toward evening and especially in northern Vermont. 

A few scattered storms might get going along the actual cold front as it moves through today, but I'm doubting it will be anything that widespread here. 

Tomorrow has a shot of being the "coldest" day since July 14 as lower humidity drops overnight temperatures into the upper 50s and highs "only" reach about 80 degrees.

Dry and warm weather is forecast Wednesday. We're keeping an eye out for Thursday, as a system coming in could bring us more strong storms, if the timing is right. 

Comfortable air will close out the week and start our weekend. As noted, I see strong signs of another heat wave next week. It's not a slam dunk yet, but so far, the weather pattern looks favorable for another hot spell coming up. 


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