Fire Weather Alerts In Vermont Today Amid Dry Air, Gusty Winds. When Will The Rain Arrive?

After a long day of enjoying Monday's 
warm sunshine, a tired Henry the Weather
Dog settles down in the evening to watch
TV as evening sun bathes the 
living room in warm light. 

 We hope  you got to enjoy yesterday, Vermont's nicest day of the year so far. Temperatures were in the 70s, the sky was blue, there was a nice breeze making the daffodils dance. It was perfect. Except for the black flies, but you can't have everything. 

Last night turned interesting, at least for weather geeks like me, South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures up, while in other areas especially east of the Green Mountains, light winds created another chilly night. 

It was a summer-like 58 degrees in Burlington at 6 a.m. But at the same time, it was just 34 degrees in Morrisville and 37 in Springfield.

The dry air and those south winds are conspiring to create probably Vermont's highest fire danger of the year so far. 

The whole region has a big fire risk today, but the worst of it is in the Champlain Valley and northern New York. 

A storm that caused severe weather over the Midwest yesterday is pushing east. That storm is rapidly weakening, but combined with the high to our east, it'll funnel stronger wind gusts up the Champlain Valley and into northern New York today. The humidity will stay rock bottom as it has for the past few days. 

With everything dried out and those winds gusting as high as 30 mph, fires could easily get going and then spread fast. And they'll be really hard to control once they do get going.    

Even though winds will be lighter in eastern Vermont, they'll still be enough to propel any fires that start there, too. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says today's fire danger is very high in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley. That's an unusually dire declaration from state fire wardens. Elsewhere in Vermont, the forestry department gives today a high fire danger rating.

As of this writing, there was a fire weather watch in western Vermont and northern New York due to the fire danger. That watch will probably be upgraded to a relatively rare for Vermont red flag warning. Elsewhere in Vermont, a special weather statement highlights the fire danger.

This is not the day to be careless with cigarettes or burn that nasty weedy patch in back of your house. Do that and you can lose your house. Or your neighbors' house. 

That storm coming in will start to spread clouds our way this afternoon, but we won't have any rain to reduce the fire threat. Any showers coning from the Great Lakes area will fall apart long before they reach Vermont.

Otherwise, today will be great. Highs will reach the low 70s again. And the winds might help keep the black flies at bay a little. 

All this will leave us with a quiet, mild night tonight. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll still be dry and relatively warm, so the fire threat will remain. It won't be as windy and the humidity will be slightly higher than it is today. It'll get into the 60s to around 70, so again, fairly warm for this time of year. Clouds will tend to increase again later in the day, in anticipation of a huge change in our weather pattern

RAIN ARRIVES

The next weather disturbance in the pipeline will head northeastward up the western side to the Appalachians and will start to arrive here late Wednesday night. 

That means much colder air and rain for most of Thursday. The steadiest and heaviest rain will probably come Thursday morning but I don't see any real dry periods at all.  High temperatures will only reach the 50s at best. 

Rainfall predictions are always tricky. They do change a lot leading up to a storm like this. But for now, the forecast calls for a respectable three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. That's more than enough to dampen the fire risk. 

And the dreaded "S" word enters the picture, too. It should cool off enough Thursday night for rain showers to mix with or change to snow at elevations above 1,500 feet.  There might be an inch or two of new snow at the summits. This isn't super weird for late April but still vaguely depressing.

NEW COLDER PATTERN

Nothing's really changed in the extended forecast we've been talking about for a few days now. We have an extended period of mostly cooler than normal weather.  We had several days of sunny, dry weather, now we'll have at least double the amount of chilly, unsettled weather. Like I said yesterday, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished. 

This will last at least until mid-May. It won't rain every day, and we should have a couple reasonably warm days thrown in here and there. 

Most days will have a chance of showers. The coldest days will be Friday and Saturday, as some of us will probably not break 50 degrees for highs.

On the bright side, chilly ain't what it used to be, as normal temperatures have been rising fast and will continue to do so into May.  Look at it this way.  A day that was ten degrees cooler than normal on April 10 would have had a high of 42 degrees. A day that's ten degrees on the cool side on May 10 would have a high of 57. 

So chilly weather is definitely getting easier. 

And for what they're worth, very long range forecasts call for a potentially hot and unusually humid summer around here. If that comes true, you'll be pining for those damp, cool days we'll have in May this year. 

Storm Departs, Cold Air Arrives; Here In Vermont 60s To Snow In Three Hours

It looked nice enough out my window this morning, but
it was very blustery and cold. Traditional March winds
are back and they sure aren't warm. 

 For the second time in a week, today's a day in Vermont that on paper looks like it was a nice spring day. However, it was   anything but. 

Much like last Thursday, some parts of the Green Mountain State were in the 60s just after midnight this morning. That sure as hell didn't last long.

In Burlington it was 65 degrees at 1 a.mo So mid-60s will be the high temperature for today.. An hour later, it was 40 degrees. It's was snowing a little by 4 a.m. 

The only thing that hasn't changed is the wind speed.  A wind advisory still exists until 11 a.m. today for gusts out of the west as high as 50 mph. 

Nearly 12,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power at around 4 a.m., mostly due to the initial, stronger surges of wind with the cold front. As of 8 a.m., the number of those outages has been halved, so we're making progress. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

We've got a couple of really cold days for this time of year coming up. And we have no return to spring weather in the forecast - at least not for the next week to 10 days. Sorry to be such a gloomy Gus, but there you go. It's March in Vermont. Deal with it. 

It was still near 32 degrees across Vermont as of around 8 a.m. But those temperatures will stay steady or even slowly fall as we go through the day.  Those of us who got a thin scrim of snow from the cold front will get very little additional snow. However, some snow showers will roam the state, especially in the Green Mountains for the rest of today. 

Tonight, lows will drop to the upper single numbers to low teens, making it the coldest night since March. This is nowhere near record cold, but it's a chilly slap on the fast. 

Tomorrow won't be any warmer, but at least it won't be so windy. And it will be sunny.  A sunny 30-degree day in March feels better than a sunny 30-degree day at the end of December. A higher sun angle makes things feel a lot better.

The rest of the week into next week appears to be unsettled and chilly. We'll have a persistent northwest flow, with cooler than normal air and weak disturbances coming through pretty much every other ray with light rain an snow showers. 

This is the pattern we endured in much of the winter. We just can't seem to shake it for any longer than a week or so. I have no idea when it will end. At least normal temperatures are rising fast now, so it's getting harder and harder to get really cold.

Since we're getting into the second half of March, most days in this regime will get into the 30s to low 40s. That's better than the teens and low 20s for highs we had so often during the winter.

And someday, spring will get here.

False Spring Is Over In Vermont After A Weird Wednesday, Welcome Back To Winter. And March Winds

The loss of snow uncovered this messy look in one of my
perennial gardens, but it's too muddy to clean  up yet.
And now the weather will be too stormy and wintry
over the next week to do anything about it.
Patience is a virtue during early spring in Vermont

It's kind of windy and chilly out there this morning, and gray, with a few showers around. False spring is definitely over. 

Before we get into what's happening next, we have to talk about how weird yesterday's temperature were. 

In the morning, it took time for northern areas to warm up after that intrusion of chilly air that actually caused an ice storm up in southern Quebec  

At 9 a.m. it was 49 degrees in Rutland, with thunderstorms approaching. A short distance away in Middlebury it was just 32 degrees. 

As we went through the day Wednesday, the temperature ranges expanded. At 1 p.m., readings ranged from 36 degrees in Highgate to 63 in Bennington. Meanwhile, freezing rain continued all day up in Montreal. 

Then it got really weird.

 Last night, a tongue of very warm air was able to head up through western Vermont. Highs reached 69 in Bennington and 63 degrees in Burlington after dark. .

The warm air lingered in Vermont until a little after midnight. It was still 63 degrees in Burlington at about 1 a.m., which means even though today is chilly, we still tied the record high for the date. Meanwhile, while it was in the 60s across northern Vermont very early this morning,  it was still just 30 degrees with lingering freezing rain not so far away in Montreal. 

The warm air never really made it into eastern Vermont, either. It mostly stayed in the 40s there.

Rivers this morning are still running high after all that snowmelt and rain. Though the rain was mostly a little less than expected, which is good.  There could be some low lying roads under water today. If you see that, don't drive through it. Please turn around and find another way around. Nobody needs to be fishing you out of an inundated car today. There's enough problems out there as it is.

BACK TO REALITY

At 4 a.m. today in Bennington, it was still 65 degrees. By 9 a.m., it was 36 degrees and snowing.  Except for a brief warm excursion we might see on Monday, winter weather is back and will prevail for more than a week. 

It won't be the intense below zero cold we saw in early February. It's getting  late in the season for that. But spring weather can't last forever this time of year!  

Expect a lot of breezy to windy weather, too. The March reputation for wind is no myth. The burgeoning forces of spring compete with the lingering claws of winter, and that creates a lot of tight temperature contrasts and storms. 

Hence winds.

An unbelievably huge area of the northern United States was under a high wind warning this morning. Those high wind warnings extended from Washington State all the way to Minnesota and Iowa. Slightly lower level wind advisories ran further east into Pennsylvania and New York. 

For us in Vermont, we won't get the worst of the winds, but you'll feel the chill from the gusts those winds create. Temperatures with those gusty winds should stay in the 30s today. 

THE NEXT STORM

A storm coming in from the west is set to give us a mostly light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. Low elevations will get near to a little above freezing during this episode, so a lot of valleys might only get an inch of snow, or even a bit less. The Green Mountain chain can expect a few inches. 

It'll be kind of windy from the south ahead of the storm Friday and kind of windy from the west after th storm Saturday. 

A BIGGER STORM

A much larger storm is due Sunday and Monday. It's still forecast to develop in the central Plains Sunday and get stronger fast as it eventually moves northward through the eastern Great Lakes. 

For us, the early guess is some snow will develop Sunday then turn into a mix and then rain overnight Sunday. Specifics on ice, how much and when aren't quite available yet.

This storm is, however, going to be a windbag and another opportunity to have wild swings in temperatures. Strong south winds look like they'll boost us at least into the 50s and maybe low 60s amid the rain showers Monday.

Then, strong north winds will plunge us into the 20s by Tuesday, with some snow showers. 

I'll have more specifics on this storm in a couple days, as it could be a bit of a humdinger. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.  

You Betcha! Vermont December Was A Chilly One: 2nd Coldest Of This Century So Far

Henry the Weather Dog spent a good part of New Year's
Eve day wrapped in blankets and pleading for warmer
weather after the second coldest December in the 
past 25 years. If long range forecasts are correct,
Henry is going to be disappointed. 

EDITORS NOTE: I'm starting the first morning of the New Year with a look back at December.  A rundown of the entire year of 2025 is coming in a post later today. For now, let's take a not-so-nostalgic look back at December 2025. 

If you felt like we had an old fashioned type of December in Vermont, you're absolutely right. 

In Burlington, it was the second coldest December in the past 25 years. Only December. 2017 was a smidge chillier than the month we just ended.

But in our climate-changed world, December, 2025 wasn't all that cold compared to many years in the 20th century. 

In Burlington, by my reckoning, it was just tied for 48th coldest out of the past 135 years. In other words, it was just a slightly chilly but unremarkably cold month. 

The climate change-influenced "new normal" compares this month to the average of years between 1990 and 2020. By that standard, December 2025 was right around five degrees colder than "normal" statewide. 

Nights were colder compared to average than daytime highs. Daily low temperatures last month were six to seven degrees cooler than the "new" average across the state. Daytime highs were between 3.5 and 4.5 chillier than that average. 

In terms of precipitation, I'll give you an oxymoron: It was the most extremely normal month I can remember. 

I say that because total rain and melted snow were almost exactly average for December in the reporting stations I looked at. Precipitation was around three inches, give or take. 

Burlington was just a third of an inch wetter than average. Montpelier was less than a quarter inch on the dry side. Bennington was about a tenth of an inch on the wet side. Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were all within 0.06 inches of normal. 

It's really remarkable that rain and melted snow in the whole state was that close to normal. 

Moderate to locally severe drought continues in northeastern Vermont, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. It's been that way for weeks. I don't think it's as dire as it looks. The ground is largely frozen, so water isn't seeping in yet. A lot of precipitation lately has been in the form of snow. That's just banked up moisture for the spring.

Unless the rest of the winter is remarkably dry, I think you'll see the lingering drought easing up during the spring. 

Snowfall was somewhat above normal statewide. I noticed Burlington, Rutland and St. Johnsbury, to take some examples, were about five inches on the plus side for snow. 

If your hat kept blowing off during December, there's a good reason for that. Especially in the Champlain Valley. In Burlington, 21 days out of the month had gusts to 30 mph or greater. Eight of those days gusted to 40 mph or more. 

Periodic local power outages were the theme of the month.

We only had two big storms during the month, both in the second half of the month. 

On December 19, we had a brief break in the cold as a powerful storm passed by to our west. Burlington soared to 63 degrees, shattering the old record for the date, which was 49 degrees. Strong winds blasted through Vermont during the storm. As many as 20 percent of Vermont households and businesses lost power at various points in that storm. 

Another storm on December 29 dumped a bunch of freezing rain on much of the state.  Power was again cut to thousands of homes and businesses. Police agencies throughout the state dealt with hundreds of car crashes and spinouts on icy roads and highways. 

LOOKING AHEAD

January is beginning as December left off. It's cold out there. 

Most of the snow from last night was finished as of mid-morning today. We have a frigid several days to look forward to. 

Temperatures in the teens this morning will fall into the single numbers by this afternoon.  A stinging northwest wind will make it feel worse. Pretty much everyone in the Green Mountain State will see the,peratures below zero overnight and into tomorrow morning. 

Each day through next Monday will feature highs in the chilly teens and lows within a few degrees either side of zero. There are signs we might see something of a warmup toward the middle and end of next week. We're not sure how big that warmup might be or whether it will last more than a couple days. 

There are no large or even mid-sized storms in sight for the next several days. The next chance of even a somewhat noticeable storm isn't due until maybe next Wednesday. And so far, even that potential storm looks kind of underwhelming. 

Longer range forecasts can be unreliable. But the NOAA is predicting an overall January weather pattern almost identical to the one we had in December. That means - if this forecast is accurate - we'll have another colder than normal January, possibly even well below normal. NOAA has equal chances of us seeing above or below normal precipitation. 

Christmas Day In Vermont Is Wintry, Will Get Even More So

Henry the Weather Dog is seen here wishing 
everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
He's staying inside as temperatures plunge'
through the teens today. 

Merry Christmas, Vermont!!

As you're opening your presents this morning, the landscape outside is nicely covered in snow. In some areas of the Green Mountain State, more light snow is drifting down. 

The white Christmas we're experiencing is mostly due to that storm we had Tuesday and Tuesday night, which behaved pretty much as expected, at least here in Vermont. 

Almost everyone in Vermont got three to six inches of snow, so it was a pretty uniform distribution. Everybody had a piece of the snow party. There were a couple exceptions, both on the high and low end of the tally.

The most snow I could find out of the storm was nine inches in Northfield and eight inches in both Woodbury and Moretown.  Parts of southwestern Vermont got cheated a little. Western Rutland and Bennington counties, along with the extreme southeastern corner of the state only got 1 to 2.5 inches of snow.

TODAY

It's wintry out there, and it's going to get more even more wintry.   

Map showing total snowfall from the storm that 
ended yesterday. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. Most of the state 
received three to six inches of snow. 

The scattered snow this morning is due to an Arctic cold front pressing down on us from the north. As the frigid air starts to blast in this afternoon, the temperature will plunge and the winds will pick up.

Temperatures in most of the Green Mountain State are in the 20s this morning and will fall through the teens this afternoon. 

Winds will pick up and gust to 35 mph tor so his afternoon. If you're doing anything outside today, like taking a walk, or a quick ski or snowshoe, it's best to do it this morning. 

The snow will stop by this afternoon in most of the state but there will be a few exceptions. The mountains could continue to get flurries, that's not weird. 

The weird part is some lake effect snows. Parts of the Champlain Valley and adjacent hills to the east could get some lake effect snow off of Lake Champlain. This could affect road conditions a little in southern Chittenden, Addison and maybe northwestern Rutland County. 

Tonight, the wind will eventually die off,  and skies will clear out. The combination will help cause temperatures to plunge to zero or below in most of the state.

SATURDAY

Skies will tend to cloud up on Saturday due to a weird storm passing by to our west, and there might be some weird wrinkles to it. Most storms travel from southwest to northeast, or sometimes just west to east. Sometimes, Alberta clippers, those small, quick moving storms with light precipitation, do move southeastward to some extent.

The next storm in the pipeline is heading toward the southeast. Current projection have it in Michigan tomorrow morning, and somewhere around New Jersey early Saturday. The difference is this storm has more oomph to it than most Alberta clippers.

Most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey are under winter storm watches because several inches of snow, -plus dangerous amounts of freezing rain are likely to assault those areas Friday into early Saturday. 

I'm bringing all this up because this might affect at least parts of Vermont. Earlier forecasts indicated we would only see some light flurries south. Now, the computer models have edged the projected path of the storm northward a bit. 

At this point, the forecast has a little snow falling Friday night south and west of Interstate 89. Areas down around Bennington County would get one to three inches of snow. 

But if the trend continues with a more and more northward path for this storm, more of Vermont might get more snow. Stay tuned.

There's still yet another storm for later on Sunday, and this one looks like it will probably consist of a messy mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. We'll have more details as we get close to that icky, icy storm. 

Monday Morning Vermont Update: Winter Weather To Intensify

Well, Sunday was unpleasant, wasn't it? 

The light snow we had Sunday morning melted into slush
and cold water as we endured a dark and drizzly 
November day across Vermont. 

It started cheerful enough with Vermont's first light snows of the seasons, but it devolved into a wet, drizzly, foggy, gray and cold day. 

I noticed there wasn't much activity out on the streets. I think everyone was inside, huddled in blankets watching football or Netflix or something. 

It could have been worse, and in northern New York it was. Freezing rain hung on most of the day.

Over in Massena, they had 0.34 inches of freezing rain, so I'm pretty sure the trees are sagging under the weight of the ice there. 

A cold, but not freezing rain continued on an off all night here in Vermont. We can write that off as a little more drought relief. As of 6 a.m. Burlington had received roughly a half inch of rain out of this so far. Montpelier and Rutland were closing in on two thirds of an inch.  Bennington and Springfield had accumulated just under an inch of rain through dawn today.  

Unfortunately, it looks like the Northeast Kingdom, where the drought is the worst in Vermont, is sort of missing out again. At least so far. St. Johnsbury had about a third of an inch of rain so far. Though it was still raining up there as of 6 p.m., and more rain and snow is headed their way. 

Most of Vermont is going to get into the snow today and tomorrow. Maybe not a blockbuster winter storm, but certainly some weather to pay attention to. 

Here are the details:

TODAY. 

National Weather Service snowfall prediction map 
today through early Wednesday. I suspect totals
could possibly go slightly higher than this in
the eastern Champlain Valley and western slopes
of the Green Mountains. We'll see! 

A pretty solid area of rain was over almost all of Vermont as of 6:30 a.m. Even higher elevation roads like Route 17 in Buels Gore and Route 242 in Westfield were just wet. 

However, I've noticed that in the northern Champlain Valley, a little sleet was mixing with the rain as it came close to tapering off at around 7:30 a.m. 

That rain should mostly clear out of Vermont by around mid-morning. 

But this isn't over. 

The forecast is tricky, but there's still one last area of low pressure riding northward, passing near Cape Cod this afternoon and into Maine this evening. 

It looks like that storm will make precipitation blossom again this afternoon and evening across Vermont. Meanwhile, colder air will be blasting in from the west and north. 

The western edge of the precipitation from a storm like the one that will pass through eastern New England today often contains a band of heavier rain or snow. The National Weather Service says that relatively heavier band might set up in or near the Champlain Valley. 

With the cold air coming in, western Vermont - including busy areas around Burlington -  look like they're in for a period of at least moderate snow for the afternoon and evening commute.  

Accumulations won't be spectacular, maybe an inch or two, but that's more than enough to seriously mess up the roads. Especially since half of us don't have snow tires, some of us are just maniacs that don't know how to drive in the snow, and many more of us don't have our "snow legs" yet. 

Meaning we haven't driven in the snow in many months and are not used to the tricks of the trade of winter driving. 

So, if you can work from home today, do it. Just to be on the safe side. 

This won't be just a Champlain Valley thing. Snow or sleet will come down in most of the rest of Vermont, too. So, if you're driving through Montpelier, or Newport, or even mid and high elevations around Rutland and east of Bennington, you're going to have to watch your step on the roads, too.

Temperatures will be marginal and we're still a little shaky on where the heaviest snow or rain will set up later today. Be ready for surprises. 

TONIGHT

Snow will probably continue into this evening. Toward midnight and before dawn, the snow showers should mostly retreat to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the summits overnight. Lighter flurries will come down elsewhere. 

Most places will have a dusting to two inches of new snow out of this, with a little more of course in the mountains. It'll get well down into the 20s, so things will freeze up pretty well. Expect icy patches to stay on some of the roads and sidewalks.

TUESDAY 

Regrettably, it's going to be a rough time for the Veterans Day parades and such, since it will be the coldest day so far this autumn/early winter.

Many places in central and northern Vermont won't even get above freezing. The warmer, banana belt towns will barely make it to 34 or 35 or so. 

Winds will make it feel worse. It'll be a stiff northwest
breeze, gusting to 25 mph or more. The wind chill will be in the teens to low 20s. Ugh. 

The snow showers that will have been falling in the mountains will tend to spread out into the central and northern Vermont valleys during the afternoon. We'll blame a disturbance racing along through the northwest flow for that. 

Once again, we won't get much new snow, maybe another dusting to two inches. Obviously the mountains will get a little more than that. The valleys of southeast Vermont will probably miss out completely, aside from maybe a few flurries. 

BEYOND TUESDAY

In two words: Not great. 

Wednesday will be slightly warmer (yay!) but still a little cooler than average for mid-November. But another weak storm zipping on through will through will bring some more light snow and light, cold rain.   

It'll be mostly snow up high, and mostly rain in the lower valleys. It will all be enough to make Wednesday an unpleasant day, even if rain and melted snow amount to less than a tenth of an inch of rain. 

Thursday and Friday both look like they'll be drab and chilly, with the ever-present risk of snow flurries, maybe mixed with sprinkles in the "warmer" valleys. By warmer, I mean the banana belt towns could make it to 40 degrees. Not exactly beach weather. 

There is some hints of hope for a little sun Saturday as north winds keep us cold.  The next potential storm still looks like it would come through next Monday. But at this point, we still have no idea whether it will come close enough to bother us. And if it does, will be snow, rain, mix, or all of the above?

And how much potential schmutz would we get? All answers we won't know for several days.  

It's That Windy Time Of Year In Vermont/Northeast, Unlike Most Novembers These Winds Are Fiery

Gusty winds last week tossing these chaotic clouds
around over St. Albans, Vermont. We've entered
Vermont's gusty season

 Especially if you live in or near the Champlain Valley or in upper elevations of Vermont, you might have noticed it's been pretty windy lately. 

We've definitely entered the Green Mountain State's gusty season.

Nine of the first 11 days of November in Burlington have featured gusts to at least 34 mph. Three of them gusty over 40 mph. 

The wind in Vermont was strong enough Friday to cause a few scattered power outages. 

Now that we're into November, the weather systems crossing the nation are energized by a jet stream that's usually right over the United States this time of year. 

That means bigger storm systems, which translates to windier systems. Routine low pressure systems or average areas of high pressure for this time of year and still make it plenty breezy. 

It's usually windiest in the Champlain Valley, especially when the wind is from the south. The topography of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains funnels south winds. 

Of course, we also have surges of strong wind from the northwest behind cold fronts and departing storms. That's the situation we find ourselves in today. 

We'll see gusts to 40 mph.  Today will also be an example of how we are now also getting into wind chill season.  Highs today will only be in the 30s to near 40 for most of us. Those gusty winds will make it feel more like it's in the 20s. In other words. Winter. 

FIRES

 In almost all Novembers, all this wind in the Northeast is not a big deal, unless the storm in question is so strong that the winds start blowing down trees or causing structural damage. But that's an exception. Usually it's just hang on to your hat weather. 

We're in a much worse situation this year, though. 

This autumn has featured record dryness in the Northeast, and the brush and forest fires rage on, spread by erratic winds that blow from a particular direction one day, and the opposite direction the next.

Rain that fell on the region Sunday and Sunday night was disappointingly light and din't make a real difference in the situation. What little moisture fell dried out quickly and it's still crunchy dry in much of the East. 

In northern Vermont, we should be OK Tuesday as early morning rain showers, changing to some snow showers in higher elevations have wetted things down again just a little. It'll get us through most of the day, anyway. 

The southeastern half of Vermont got very little or no precipitation last night, and drought conditions are worse there than in  northern Vermont. That means today's blustery northwest could really spread any fires that get going there. The humidity in the air will crash as the sun comes out later, too, which won;t help.

One piece of good news: A 10-acre brush fire in West Brattleboro, Vermont that started Friday was brought under control Sunday. 

From Massachusetts on south and west to the Mid-Atlantic States, it's even worse. Paltry showers early Monday quickly dried out, and existing wildfires continue to burn today. The dry windy weather today just make matters worse. 

A burn ban that was in effect until Monday has been extended another week in southern Vermont. But anywhere in Vermont, you probably shouldn't do any outdoor burns until we get a decent amount of rain and.or snow. 

A red flag warning for fire danger is in effect today for all of southern New England and southeastern New York.  

I think what worries everyone is, if it doesn't rain soon and an intense, dry wind hits, that could drive the eastern wildfires through neighborhoods and destroy houses and other structures. We don't need something like the deadly firestorm that trashed swaths of Gatlinburg, Tennessee back in late November, 2016.

After today, it looks like we'll see a semi-break from the winds for a few days, though Saturday might prove to be blustery.

That seeming anti-rain force field will hold strong over southern New England and much of the Mid-Atlantic States for at least the next week.  Little or no rain is forecast for that region for at least th next seven days.    

Hurricane Lee Closing In On Nova Scotia, Maine

Satellite view from just before dawn shows the first big
band of high clouds from Hurricane Lee approaching
Vermont from the east. 

 You're going to hear about Hurricane Lee "weakening" into a tropical storm or gradually transitioning to a non-tropical system.  

All technically true, but conditions in Nova Scotia and probably eastern Maine are going to devolve into the conditions you'd find in a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. 

It's going to be messy up there. 

Actually, tropical storm warnings are up for all of the immediate east facing coastline of New England, and that big chunk of eastern Maine. 

In Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, they're bracing for storm surges and flooding, but the biggest hazard up there will be those winds that will cause a lot of power outages. Residents have been told to expect outages that could last for days. 

Here in Vermont the Lee forecast is steady state.  Today, we'll see high clouds increase from the south and east. On Saturday, we're still expecting a cloudy, windy day.  Depending on where you are, gusts during Saturday should peak in the 30 to 40 mph range, while sustained winds between gusts will probably be 15 to 20 mph.

It's going to be on the rough on Lake Champlain, with waves on the broad lake up to three feet. So it won't be a great day up there. 

If you're hiking tomorrow, hang on to your hat! Gusts could reach as high as 60 mph on the summits of the Green Mountains. 

So Vermont all in all is still looking at a close shave, but no biggie from Lee. We got lucky. 

We might get lucky from Lee in another respect. I told you how it will the storm will create a high level overcast. Depending on how far west the high cloud shield gets, we have a shot of seeing spectacular sunsets, possibly both this evening and Saturday, too.   

If the dge of the clouds is somewhere in central New York or something like that, the setting sun would light up the high overcast into a wildly colorful evening.  No promises on that, but it's a possibility. 

We've got some additional nice "traditional" September weather coming  up. Sunday will be gorgeous (sunshine and 70).  There might be a little rain Monday and perhaps early Tuesday, but we get into a pretty long, mild, dry stretch of weather after that. 

You know how those storms would seem to stall over us all summer?  This time, a dry, sunny high pressure system will stall around us for a few days. That will be a nice change for sure.  

Vermont Snow Continued In Spots Overnight; Snow Pretty Much Over Chill Isn't

Still some dustings of snow in my St. Albans, Vermont 
gardens this morning.

Judging from webcams this morning, it looks like there was a pretty widespread one to two inches of snow overnight in northern Vermont, at least at elevations above about 1,500 feet. 

Some high elevation roads, like Route 17 in Buels Gore and Route 242 in Westfield, actually looked a bit icy early this morning, so be careful if driving up in the northern Green Mountains early today.

The summit of Mount Mansfield looks like they had about four inches of new snow by late Wednesday afternoon, so I bet the highest peaks of the Green Mountains clocked in with a good six inches or more of snow out of this. 

Lowlands look almost snow-free, but there's still a dusting of snow on the ground outside my window in St. Albans. Places like Williston and Waterbury also received a fresh dusting of late April snow. As of 6 a.m. it was still snowing a little in places like Montpelier and Morrisville. Temperatures region-wide were near or a little below freezing. Brrr! 

This kind of snow is certainly not unheard of this late in April, it is kind of late for the low elevations to receive any snow. Nowhere near a record, but still -- late.

The good news is that snow showers in the hills should wrap up pretty quickly this morning.  The bad-ish news is it will still be windy and chilly around here for the next couple of days. 

From my northwestern Vermont perch in St. Albans, I could see a sharp line between overcast and clear skies well off to my northwest as of 6:30 this morning. 

That clearing line will probably advance toward and likely into Vermont today. However, that lingering storm that brought the snow to us is still sitting and spinning to our east.  That will give us a day of haves and have nots in Vermont. 

Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam showed 
a trucker dealing with an unseasonably slick 
Route 242 in Westfield, Vermont early this morning.

Somewhere, probably over or near Vermont, that clearing line will stall. Places to the west of that line will have a bright, sunny, but windy and chilly afternoon, but the sun will make things feel less bad. Places to the east will be stuck under clouds, and be even cooler, but still windy. 

I'm not sure where that sunny to cloudy border will end up, but places west of the Green Mountains, and in the southern Connecticut River Valley will have the best chance at sunshine. 

At this point, it looks like the stuck storm to our east will throw some extra clouds our way tomorrow, so we'll call Friday variably cloudy.  On Saturday, that storm will start to grudgingly pull away to the east, which would give us some more sunshine, but still a stiff north wind and temperatures about 10 degrees on the chilly side of normal.

We're still looking toward Sunday to firmly break back out into full fledged spring weather. 

Changeable Week In Vermont: Early Snow, Fire Risk, Showers, Temperature Swings

It's ba-a-ack! A little dusting of snow on my St. Albans, 
Vermont deck this morning. Despite that bit of overnight
moisture, strong winds and dry air will create a fire
hazard today in Vermont/New England. 

 On Mondays, I like to set the tone for the week.  

However, here in Vermont, there's no tone today, at least in the weather forecasting department. Expect a little of everything. 

Showers yesterday and last evening didn't amount to all that much.  It got abruptly colder overnight, and that four-letter "S" word made a reappearance. 

here was a dusting of it on my decks early this morning before it quickly, mercifully melted away. 

Despite the light showers and those flakes of snow, there's a fire weather hazard today, believe it or not. 

Like I said, it didn't rain much, so what moisture there is will quickly disappear off last year's old, dead stuff out in the fields and forests. Despite the spring green up, last year's dry stuff is still there, noticeable and ready to catch fire given the right conditions. , 

Dry, gusty winds were already blowing as dawn broke today, and those winds were bringing in some arid air.

The combination of low humidity this afternoon - at or below 20 percent - and winds gusting as high as 35 mph will make the risk of hard to control brush fires pretty high this afternoon in much of New England.  

There's a red flag warning in effect today for the southern half of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine. The warning is an alert for high fire risk. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington went with a special weather statement for all of Vermont noting the worries about brush fires today.  "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause the fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the special weather statement says. 

Today is NOT the day to get rid of that brush pile in your yard with a fire.  I doubt many town fire wardens would be issuing burn permits today, anyway.

Fire weather concerns will probably continue tomorrow, but at least it won't be as windy then. 

Of course, we still need the rain and it looks like some is on the way later this week. How much rain is an open question.

The forecast for later in the week has changed from some of the ones I saw late last week. Rather than a strong ridge of high pressure giving us very warm and dry conditions, the ridge is weak and weather fronts will be draped over Vermont, or at least nearby Tuesday night into Friday.  

Weather disturbances will be moving along and through these fronts, so the combination makes us ripe for showers. Timing and intensity of the showers is a big question mark. For now, expect just a general risk of on and off rain from midweek on.

It'll start off kind of mild Wednesday and Thursday, and then get nippy again by Friday and especially Saturday.  Nothing bone chilling, but by Saturday, the expected high temperatures in the low 50s are about ten degrees cooler than average.

It's later in the spring now, so cool spells are losing their intensity, thank goodness.  There's a huge difference between the beginning of April and the end of the month. 

Vermont: A Windy, Warm And Dry March; We Still Need A Bunch More Rain

We had a rapid progress toward spring during March, 2021 in
St. Albans, Vermont because of a warmer than normal  
month. Here's how one corner of my property 
 looked on March 6.........

Another month came to a close this week, so it's time to take our usual look back at the month just ended.  

March in Vermont was another warm, dry month.   We've had a lot of those lately. 

In most of the Green Mountain State, rainfall was around half of normal. 

For instance, Burlington barely topped an inch of precipitation for the month, which is 1.2 inches below normal for the month. Montpelier barely received an inch, too.  That was. more than 1.3 inches below normal. 

It wasn't a record dry March, but it was pretty parched for this normally stormy time of year. 

Snowfall was lame, too.  Burlington only received 1.4 inches of snow during March, making it the eighth least snowy March on record.  That's a marked contrast to some recent Marches. In 2017 and 2018, both Marches had more than 30 inches of snow. 

Though this March was warm, it was nowhere close to any records. The character of the month was some pretty intense and relatively long lasting warm spells punctuated by brief, sharp, winter-like cold snaps. 

Some record high temperatures were set on March 11, and numerous records fell on March 23 and 25. Readings got as high as 74 in Bennington, 73 degrees in Burlington and Springfield and 72 in Rutland.

All these abrupt shifts to warm to brief cold and then warm again all month contributed to making March a windy month. 

This was punctuated by a exceptionally rare early season tornado in Middlebury on March 26 that left two injured, severely damaged a house and caused minot damage to others. 

....and here's how the same scene looked on March 31. 
Look closely and you can see spring garden plants coming up

We already had plenty of wind in Vermont during March without any tornadoes. In Burlington, 18 days had gusts to 30 mph or more and eight days saw gusts to 40 mph and above. 

The dearth of precipitation in March is concerning, since this is the time of year you want to really recharge ground water if it's been dry.  

Trees haven't leafed out yet so the forests aren't really drawing much water from the ground.  

The outlook for April isn't great. Snow and rain did fall Thursday, April Fool's Day, which might help a little, but it doesn't really solve all of the problems.  

All of Vermont is still listed by the U.S. Drought Monitor as at least abnormally dry, with a bit more than half officially in drought. 

Plus, after this, it looks mostly dry at least through the first two weeks of April.  There might be some light rains here and there, but so far, it doesn't look like anything heavy is on the way for the foreseeable future 

Yes, It's Been Windy This November. No, It's Not Odd

Leaves fly through the air on strong gusts as a rainbow
glows in the background in St. Albans, Vermont in 
late October, 2017.  Late October and November tend
to be quite windy in Vermont, especially in the 
Champlain Valley. 

Here in Vermont, especially in the Champlain Valley, it's been a windy November so far. Eleven of the 20 days we've had so far in Burlington have featured gusts over 30 mph.  

I'm including today, since predawn gusts exceeded 30 mph. Three days this month, including yesterday, topped 40 mph. 

Meanwhile, large swaths of the nation have been under various  high wind warnings and wind advisories. 

The month of March seems to have won the windy reputation, but November typically also a really windy month.  Transition seasons, like late autumn and early spring, like March, tend to be windy.  Storm systems from late fall through the winter into early spring tend to be stronger, so you get more winds.

Meanwhile, in November, the lasts gasps of autumn warmth try to get into the picture. In March, the first awakenings of spring do the same. That helps add to the windy atmosphere. 

A common weather pattern in late October and November feature storms moving north over the Great Lakes as they head toward Canada. The lake water is still relatively warm, and that helps add energy to these storms, making them even stronger. Hence the wind. 

Winds in storms, at least in the Northern Hemisphere, go counterclockwise.  If you're east of the storm, the wind comes out of the south. A storm in the Great Lakes puts Vermont to the east of the storm, so the gusts roar in from the south. 

The orientation of the Champlain Valley, squeezed between the Adirondack Mountains to the west and the Green Mountains to the east, tend to funnel the wind up the valley. The mountains squeeze the air from the south as it comes into the Champlain Valley, making those south winds stronger in places like Middlebury, Burlington, St. Albans and especially the islands. 

Once those Great Lakes storms, or other storms wandering up the coast end up in the Maritime Provinces of Canada, they also tend to strengthen. That leaves us with cold, strong northwest winds.

In those situations, it tends to be windy everywhere in Vermont, but especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. The air is forced to rise over the mountains, then it gains momentum as the gusts roar down the east slopes. That leaves the eastern half of Green Mountain State to deal with swirling leaves or snow, and in the worst cases, fallen tree limbs and power lines. 

The wind will continue on and off through the rest of the month at least, as it usually does. 

Expect to see gusts go over 30 mph in at least parts of Vermont for the rest of today, and again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hang on to your hat, I guess.