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| Best chance of severe storms today is in northern New England (yellow shaded area). Southern Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and there is an extremely low but not zero chance of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. |
We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.
In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.
I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010.
There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that.
But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year.
We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June. Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington.
On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six. And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so.
HEAT AND STORMS
Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.
The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.
Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.
But there is a cold front coming our way. That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.
The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine). NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.
Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today.
The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont. But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.
There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall.
I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.
BIG RELIEF
When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.
The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed.
The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief.
During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys.
The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees. That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity.
A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.
If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington, it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.
Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side. It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.
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